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Politico & Kos Says "It's Over".


One big fact has largely been lost in the recent coverage of the Democratic presidential race: Hillary Rodham Clinton has virtually no chance of winning.

Her own campaign acknowledges there is no way that she will finish ahead in pledged delegates. That means the only way she wins is if Democratic superdelegates are ready to risk a backlash of historic proportions from the party’s most reliable constituency.

Unless Clinton is able to at least win the primary popular vote — which also would take nothing less than an electoral miracle — and use that achievement to pressure superdelegates, she has only one scenario for victory. An African-American opponent and his backers would be told that, even though he won the contest with voters, the prize is going to someone else.

People who think that scenario is even remotely likely are living on another planet.

As it happens, many people inside Clinton’s campaign live right here on Earth. One important Clinton adviser estimated to Politico privately that she has no more than a 10 percent chance of winning her race against Barack Obama, an appraisal that was echoed by other operatives.

In other words: The notion of the Democratic contest being a dramatic cliffhanger is a game of make-believe.

It's been clear to some of us for over a month that the race was over.  The Politico article covers some of what we've been talking about for some time, that by just about any measure the race is decided, and that the only way Clinton can win is for Obama to be destroyed and for her to benefit from his destruction.  

When asked yesterday if her campaign was pushing the Wright story, Hillary Clinton herself wouldn't deny it, and didn't declare it off limits for her campaign staff.  I've been told that the campaign's talking points for surrogate calls to superdelegates urges the callers to question Obama's electability by emphasizing the Wright controversy.  And even in public, as Chris Bowersreported from his local Dem meeting, Clinton staffers are pushing the Wright story:

Well, I just returned from my ward meeting tonight in University City, Philadelphia, and two Clinton staffers made an appearance. When one spoke on behalf of Hillary Clinton, he specifically listed Jeremiah Wright as an example of why Obama would be less electable in the general election. The context of his argument was that the Wright story demonstrated that Obama had not gone through the rigors of a presidential election before, and it was possible that more damaging stories like that would come out as the campaign progressed. Aka, the Wright story is demonstrative of how Obama is less electable.

According to The Politico article, it's sort of a last gasp attempt to derail Obama's nomination, but it doesn't seem likely to succeed:

Her advisers say privately that the nominee will be clear by the end of June. At the same time, they recognize that the nominee probably is clear already.

So, you might be asking, why the heck won't the traditional media report what most of us see, that the nomination is settled and there's no way other than destroying Obama or dividing the party that Clinton can win the nomination?  

The real question is why so many people are playing. The answer has more to do with media psychology than with practical politics.

Journalists, for instance, have become partners with the Clinton campaign in pretending that the contest is closer than it really is. Most coverage breathlessly portrays the race as a down-to-the-wire sprint between two well-matched candidates, one only slightly better situated than the other to win in August at the national convention in Denver.

One reason is fear of embarrassment. In its zeal to avoid predictive reporting of the sort that embarrassed journalists in New Hampshire, the media — including Politico — have tended to avoid zeroing in on the tough math Clinton faces.

Avoiding predictions based on polls even before voters cast their ballots is wise policy. But that's not the same as drawing sober and well-grounded conclusions about the current state of a race after millions of voters have registered their preferences.

The antidote to last winter's flawed predictions is not to promote a misleading narrative based on the desired but unlikely story line of one candidate.

There are other forces also working to preserve the notion of a contest that is still up for grabs.

One important, if subliminal, reason is self-interest. Reporters and editors love a close race — it’s more fun and it’s good for business.

That's right, reporters and editors are unable--or unwilling--to report the race accurately because they're having too much fun, and maybe even making too much money.


11 Comments

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And what is Hillary Clinton really doing? Yup, destroying the Democratic party's chance to win in NOVEMBER.

I have been thinking for some time that even the Clintons know it is over--that there is no chance the supers will break for her--and what they are doing now is trying to blackmail the party and Obama into putting her in the number 2 slot. Along the lines of, "If you don't promise me VP, I will spend the rest of the time before Denver trying to make him unelectable."

Fortunately, Bill Clinton today, with his, "wouldn't it be nice if we had two candidates who loved America" line, has provided a new excuse to those superdelegates who have been waiting for an opportune time post-Ohio to endorse Obama to do so.

I like the blackmail VP angle!

Someone make a logical argument to give up. Sen. Obama will not have it locked up no matter what happens before the convention. The game is played all 4 quarters girls. You'd have to be nuts to give up now. It can't happen that she'd be given the nomination? Says who. You? Kos? Whatever, show up in Denver and watch what happens.

Louisville: I'm not going to try to persuade you to give up, and it would be even more foolish to try to persuade the Clinton campaign.

What the Politico article, and Josh, and many others, are saying is not that HRC *should* give up, but that the game is over.

Because what's the victory scenario now for HRC? The media is now saying -- and her supporters who have posted to TPM seem to agree -- that the only way she can win is through a messy floor fight in Denver. In August. With demonstrators in the streets. And the MSM playing "Stop, Children, what's that sound" over the footage for atmosphere. Leaving us two and a half months before the general election.

You may be happy with that endgame. But the Party is not in fact going to follow you down that road. If it becomes clear that this is the only victory scenario for HRC, her superdelegate lead will dwindle. Donor money will dry up. And she'll start getting phone calls from Gore, Pelosi, and Reid. If Clinton wants to keep the race going, she really needs to offer a better endgame. Otherwise it will be over by early May at the latest.

The game is not over. You just want it to be over.

I think it will be over by late May if things don't turn around for HRC.
The call for her to quit now, and the folks blaming her for the fact that we dems are almost 50% for her angers me so much I donated to her campaign today.

This is not in response to your comment per se, but to the idea of caring.


I can somewhat follow a thread of logic that goes something like this: "to call for the election to end is to advocate injustice!" It is a little harder for me to follow the thread further, but if I close my eyes, I can see it: "to advocate injustice angers me, and the tactics employed in advocating this injustice are like crimes!"


I can both understand and sympathize with these arguments, because they are about the desire for justice. But what I fail to follow is how someone can passionately prefer either of these candidates. Where does the passion for, say, Senator Clinton come from? Both candidates, to varying degrees, have sold-out on essentially every leftist cause. From where comes this passion for slightly less authoritarian corporate military rule?


To put it in a less inflammatory way: dude, they've got pretty much the same policies. So, while I can understand preferring one candidate to another, I cannot understand doing so passionately.


And since these candidates are essentially equal, for pragmatic reasons I am of the Math And The Good Of The Party Camp. To oppose TMATGOTPC could be an exercise in justice, but to oppose us vigorously? You might next find yourself refusing to drink your Pepsi, when you ordered Coke.


Do us all a favor, just drink the Pepsi-- it's the same thing.

The game is over, despite all the histrionics by HRC supporters on online message boards. As TUnderwood has explained, Hillary's chances rest upon a terrible situation that no one who cares about the Democratic party wants to come about. Apart from a few supporters online, no one in Clinton's camp will be willing to drag this out and tear the party in two.

Hillary's task is even harder than it may seem at first glance. Simply to pull even with Obama requires her to win the remaining contests by 28% (assuming Obama doesn't continue to pick up a few delegates here and there as caucus delegates are apportioned).
That's a big task. And the bad news for the Clinton team is that even if she manages to pull it off, it still won't be enough. Why? Because Hillary's only chance is to win with the Superdelegates. That means she not only has to catch up, she also has to convince the Supers that the party - which is to say the voters- are convincingly rejecting Obama. And that requires more than just winning the remaining states. It requires her to win each succeeding primary by larger and larger margins. She must essentially make Obama concede. She cannot win a floor fight.
To believe otherwise suggests this: After June 3rd, Clinton and Obama are basically tied. Niether will concede. Then, the campaign moves to the Superdelegates. Clinton only remaining argument is that Obama is un-electable in the general. Unless she comes in with a series of crushing victories that argument won't fly - not when Obama can counter with the facts that he has won more states, raised more money and attracted more volunteers.

Then there's the matter of race. Race lies at the root of Clinton's electablity argument. I say this not to accuse Hillary or her supporters of racism. The "Is America ready for a black president?" question is unpleasent but also, sadly, valid for perfectly pragmatic (if again unpleasant) debate.
On the other hand, Superdelegates know that the party is dependent on the black vote. And if pragmatism justifies speculation on white America rejecting an African-American nominee, it also justifies questioning if the party wishes to alienate an important constituency.
Here again, Obama can win by coupling the fear of African-Americans staying home in November with the promise of substantually increasing the number of (reliably Democratic) black voters. In 2004 57% of eligible black voters went to the polls. A slight 1-2% increase would have easily put Kerry in the White House. I think its fair to say that Obama can do better than that.

Thank you all for commenting - I am so glad that we have had a normal discourse on this topic!

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