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Rasmussen Polls show Clinton Ahead 46-44%.


Objective:  Senator Hillary Clinton now leads 46-44% over Senator Barack Obama int the Rasmussen Daily Tracking Poll.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows ongoing volatility in the Democratic Presidential Nomination. Nationally, Hillary Clinton now holds a very slight advantage over Barack Obama, 46% to 44%. Before the story broke about his former Pastor, Obama led Clinton by eight percentage points (see recent daily results). While the national polls remain close, Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama a 78.1 contract_type = "rasmussen";contract_id = 68180;node_id = 7608 + "_" + 7058;new Ajax("/extension/ajax/intrade_lastprice.php", {data: 'contractID=' + contract_id + '&contract_type=' + contract_type,method: 'get',update: $('intrade_' + node_id)}).request(); % chance to win the Democratic nomination while expectations for a Clinton victory are at 21.9 contract_type = "rasmussen";contract_id = 68178;node_id = 7607 + "_" + 188;new Ajax("/extension/ajax/intrade_lastprice.php", {data: 'contractID=' + contract_id + '&contract_type=' + contract_type,method: 'get',update: $('intrade_' + node_id)}).request(); %.

Looking ahead to the General Election in November, John McCain continues to lead both potential Democratic opponents. McCain leads Barack Obama 49% to 41% and Hillary Clinton 49% to 43% (see recent daily results). New polling shows McCain leading both Democrats in Georgia and Arkansas. In Minnesota, the race is very close.

On Saturday, Obama’s favorable ratings slipped a little further—46% favorable, 51% unfavorable. Before the Pastor Problem became big news, Obama was viewed favorably by 52%. One month ago, he was viewed favorably by 56%. McCain is viewed favorably by 54% of voters nationwide and unfavorably by 43%. For Clinton, those numbers are 43% favorable, 54% unfavorable (see recent daily results).



My Analysis
Based on my Levels of Evidence Rating System (Level I best rated polls like SUSA, Level II mildly well perfoorming polls like Zogby and the like, Level III Daily Tracking Polls), this is a Level III evidence poll.  Not the best, but better than speculation or opinion.

Here's where I lay out my level's of evidence:
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/03/obama-regains-lead-in-the-gall.php

Interestingly, whereas the Gallup polls were showing Clinton ahead most of last week, Rasmussen had Obama ahead, now for whatever reason, they reverse again.  Gallup has Obama ahead, while Rasmussen has Clinton ahead.

Whether or not this relates to the style of polling or time course of the polling, it seems that Rasmussen lags a little in terms of the reflection of the populace.  That may be good news to Obama folks.  The other explanation may be right as well, that there is no real bump to Obama's speech and Richardson's endorsement.  Time will tell.


3 Comments

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From the Gallup poll:

"Hillary Clinton is rated as "honest and trustworthy" by 44% of Americans, far fewer than say this about John McCain (67%) and Barack Obama (63%)."

What I find interesting is that from 15/3/08 until today, both candidates have lost 1 percentage point.

The Rasmussen appears to lag the Gallup by about 2-3 news cycles.

See where both are after Tuesday's numbers.

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neoprufrok

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