Sen. McCain will previal in a McCain-Obama race.
It looks like the current conventional wisdom is
that things favor Sen. Obama if he were to be the Dems nominee in a McCain-Obama race.
The conventional wisdom will be proven wrong. My (a Dem leaning independent ) gut feel says that Sen. McCain will prevail instead.
1. Resume/Experience factor
Yes. It will matter in the General Election. People will pay attention to it.
John McCain has a substantial resume/record. Even a rank partisan would have to agree on that.
Sen. Obama's resume/experience is thin. It will be much more obvious when seen against John McCain's. It is not considered polite when Gloria Steinam or Geraldine Ferraro complain that a woman with Sen. Obama's profile would have been run out of town and not taken seriously as a contender. Republicans have the media/money muscle to make it stick.
2. Press/Media factor:
Sen. Obama benefited immensely in the Primary. The media (Both Print and TV) coverage of Sen. Obama until now is mostly positive. It will have to cool sooner or later. It may have already. Any criticism until now is either ignored or tagged as playing race card.
The Media loves Sen. McCain as much as Sen. Obama. They would find it difficult to turn
against him. So, they would be more balanced. People say they hate media etc, But, Media influences voters just by what they highlight or repeat.
3. Independent/Centrist voters
In the General Election, these voters will see
that Sen. Obama is too liberal for them by looking at the vocal people behind Sen. Obama - the left wing of Democratic Party. The Republican media network is good at tagging the label on Sen. Obama.
Sen. McCain on the other hand had a long history of crossing party lines. His reputation for being independent is well earned. Look at how Rush/Hannity et al have gone insane when Sen. McCain won in NH/FL primaries.
4. Iraq factor:
In the Dem Primary, Sen. Obama made the most of his 'Iraq speech'. Sen. Clinton failed
to get any traction when she pointed out that
Sen. Obama hasn't done much to followup in
the Senate. Sen. McCain will point out that he
has acted in the best interests of the country.
He opposed his own party more often on Iraq and actively supported 'surge' when he thought that is the best thing to do. The relative peace in Iraq will be seen (wrongly, I think) as that surge worked. My view is that Iraq is going through a classic civil war scenario where the minority( Sunnis) after a prolonged resistence is realizing the strength of the majority (Shias) and are likely to negotiate for a deal sooner or later. People are likely to tune into Sen. McCain when he says that I am going to withdraw from Iraq responsibly. This is similar to what Sen. Clinton says and Sen. Obama will do despite his talk in reality. But, Sen. Obama's rhetoric in particular will be seen as irresponsible.
5. Talk of Hope/Unity/Chnage:
Sen. Obama benefited from his Hope/Unity/Change speeches. They are until now seen as inspiring. But, the tide is likely to
turn. They will be seen as feel good talk. After
you hear the same refrain umpteenth time, they will ring hollow not inspiring. Sen. McCain will
point out his real life inspiring story and that will appeal to the average voter more than Sen. Obama's speeches/life story.
6. Racial politics :
During the primaries, the press played along
with the notion that Clinton camp played race card for any campaign rhetoric that touched Sen. Obama's race/past. In reality, Sen. Obama benefitted most from the Racial politics. The 85% or more vote in his favor by African Americans is quite crucial to some of his wins. Sen. Clinton got no benefit of doubt despite her and Pres. Clinton's life long commitment to Civil rights. They are basically
checkmated on the race issue. They couldnot criticize it. It is fair to say that Conservative partisans will use it to appeal to some voters even if Sen. McCain stays out of it.
7. National Security Creds:
At the end of the day, this matters to a lot of
voters in the heartland. Here Sen. Obama is at a distinct disadvantage. Sen. McCain will checkmate Sen. Obama on this crucial factor.
8. Swing States : A number of swing states will be competitive again and favor Sen. McCain. NJ/PA/FL will favor Sen. McCain. CA will be competitive and be in the play and may even favor Sen. McCain. KS, UT, NE, WY, Idaho etc will stay Republican. Sen. Obama's
wins in those states overstate his strength as they are dominated by Republican voters.
8. Economy:
Sen. Obama and Sen. McCain are not knowledgeable on Economic matters. So, I am not sure who will benefit on this. Sen. Obama could benefit if the Economy slows down too far.
Note: I generally vote Dem and have voted for every one - Woman, Hispanic Man for Senate, African American candidate for Gov, Men for every position. I preferred Al Gore over GWB
Good points. Add to this flip-flop problems, lies, and potential corruption issues that are starting to add up on Obama, he definitely falls short against McCain. All the more reason, in my opinion, to help Clinton secure the nomination instead of setting the party up for a sure defeat in the fall.
There needs to be more critical non-cult analysis of Obama on TPM and elsewhere as the cult-like views are disconnected from reality and detrimental to the Democratic party.
March 11, 2008 4:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
tpm is cult like? if anything the media has been generous to clinton as well. At least the media goes through Obama's senate votes, but they have yet to go through clinton's senate votes at all! And corruption? Clinton has much more corrupt political ties than anyone else, including Rezko. She didnt even have a security clearance in the white house, nor will she release her whitehouse records as first lady showing all her schedules or dealings. she sent teams of private investigators against all the women her husband had affairs with since he was arkansas governor.. need i go on
March 11, 2008 4:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
So umm, since most of the points you raise apply equally well to Hillary Clinton, I suppose you think we should give Gary Hart another crack at it?
March 11, 2008 4:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
You must be one of those intuitionists, like at the new age events. You make predictions based on your feelings. Still, none of the polling data backs up any of your feelings.
March 11, 2008 4:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
9. Because I said so:
Did'nt you reed all that stuff I wrote at teh beginning! Clinton, her good. Obmaa, him bad. Clinton, her better than McCain even though everything I write bout him Obmam could be sed about her.
...
I never get tired of seeing HRC supporters make these points. We don't like your candidate because he is beating our candidate. We think our candidate should win the nomination regardless of whether or not she can win in the general. We pay no mind to the FACT that our candidate has OPENLY ADMITTED that the differences between she and McCain will be less distinct than the differences between your candidate and McCain, but we secretly think McCain is so awesome that we take that as a point AGAINST your candidate. Nevermind the fact that your candidate will be able to draw contrasts against John McCain that our candidate won't be able to draw, contrasts that the American people have expressed increasing support for. You know, contrasts like OPPOSED THE IRAQ WAR and TRUSTED GEORGE W. BUSH. TWICE. It is Hillary's turn. Your guy is too young and inexperienced even though he has more time in elected office than our candidate and is no younger than Bill was.
"Flip flops, lies and potential corruption issues..." If you asked the American people to pin those tails on one of our two donkeys right now, the Junior Donkey from New York would look like a ball of snakes...
Mark my words on this: When Barack Obama has secured the Democratic Party Nomination for President of the United States, and it will happen, I'm going to start a thread here so that all of you Hillary backing-"He can't beat McCain" clones can be sure to put your names on the dotted line... We'll see how smart you sound then. We'll see whether you're Bam Bam or whether you're DINO.
March 11, 2008 4:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
it's going to be an adlai stevenson v eisenhower. this country is too dumb for obama.
March 11, 2008 4:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
I disagree with your conclusion and several of your lines of reasoning. But more than anything, I think you’re speculating on many things that are as yet unknown or unpredictable.
1. Obama’s experience is not insignificant. He’s been an effective legislator for 16 years and has not managed to alienate his own party in the process. Obama has held positions fairly consistent with his party, while McCain’s “maverick” moments have turned off many voters in the Republican base. Obama’s choices, after law school, to work as a community organizer and civil rights attorney are significant to his campaign themes and shouldn’t be overlooked.
2. This is an area in which I think it’s premature to speculate. We don’t yet know how the press will influence the race in the GE. I‘d also submit that McCain’s high level of press support can only go down, while Obama, having not even attempted to court the press, has the potential to become a true darling. But that’s, of course, speculative.
3. Again, I think this is premature. We don’t yet know whether and how far Obama will tack to the center when he moves into a GE campaign. Don’t think his campaign is unaware of the potential for the “liberal” label to turn away independents. They’ll counter in one way or another, though, of course it’s speculative to assume so.
4. Interestingly, McCain made several really bad predictions about Iraq before the invasion, immediately after the invasion, and in ensuing months. It took him some time to come to the realization that W. and Rumsfeld had botched things very badly. To his credit, he called things pretty accurately once it was becoming obvious how poorly we had planned for a post-invasion presence. Obama doesn’t have that baggage, and I think the Repubs will have a hard time criticizing Obama’s votes in support of the troops.
5. Another premature prediction. There’s no saying that the Hope/Change theme won't continue to appeal to voters, especially as the spotlight turns from the Dem race to Obama as the sole Dem candidate. There are still plenty of folks out there who have not seen Obama in action. And those who have seen him more than enough are not likely to vote against him just by virtue of being able to recite large portions of his mantra.
6. Again, it’s hard to say how this will play out. Obviously, Obama has AA votes in his corner. The Repubs may find an effective way to play the race card, but I think they will be reluctant to go very hard in that direction. But hard to say at this point.
7. Of all your points, I agree. This is one on which McCain has a definite advantage, and I can’t foresee or speculate on how Obama could overcome this one area.
8. Obama should be prepped to do well in red states. Given his appeal to independents (as evidenced by how many more independents voted Dem in primaries instead of voting Repub and for McCain) and his demonstrated ability to increase turnout among younger (generally less conservative) voters, I see many red states in play and not a sure thing for McCain.
9. McCain will have a very hard time establishing credibility on his ability to shape and mend the economy. It’s inexcusable that someone of his tenure in Washington should have a poor grasp of economic issues. And his flip-flop on the Bush tax cuts could really, really hurt. The economy is McCain's biggest weakness, IMO, the area of number one concern to voters, no less. It doesn’t bode well for McCain at all. And neither candidate can point to executive leadership and running a state economy, so Obama’s relative lack of years aren’t certain to weaken him on this issue.
It’s been a lot of fun speculating about all these issues, and I’m addicted to seeing how these things play out day by day. I’ll have to save this post and come back in August to revisit. Thanks for the interesting topic!
March 11, 2008 4:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
These are my sentiments. I find it strange that so many Democrats can't believe that not everyone in our party is all that comfortable with handing over the most powerful office in the world to a relatively inexperienced junior Senator. Although I would have preferred Joe Biden on resume alone, I think Clinton has enough heft for me to back her in the GE. But Obama would have me hesitating in the booth. McCain is a safe choice in my opinion; a bit of a maverick, strong on defense, not a total far-right loon, etc. Of the three persons in my family, one supports McCain outright (thinks Clinton really is a monster) and the other will go McCain if Obama is the Democratic nominee. I think Chris Matthews was right when he said Obama was good for either 45% or 55%; but Clinton was good for 48/49% and maybe 51%. She may be the safer choice.
March 11, 2008 5:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Huh, interesting. I guess I'm sold on the whole "hope/change" thing, in addition to thinking he's put together a very strong platform on the issues. The guy was elected to head the Harvard Law Review and has a teaching gig at the University of Chicago law school (one of the very best in the country), so I have to think he's a pretty bright guy. I don't get that sense from McCain, to be honest. I'd certainly support HRC if she were the nominee, but I also honestly don't think she can get enough support in the GE to overcome what we know will be an enormous Repub turn-out to vote against HRC.
March 11, 2008 6:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
"The guy was elected to head the Harvard Law Review and has a teaching gig at the University of Chicago law school (one of the very best in the country), so I have to think he's a pretty bright guy."
My thoughts exactly. I am very interested to see how the Obama/McCain debates will go should Obama win the Democratic nomination.
Khan Hussein Khan
March 11, 2008 8:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well Mr. McCain may indeed previal [sic] but I believe Mr. Obama will win.
This is good news for the Clintons.
March 11, 2008 10:55 PM | Reply | Permalink