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Spoilers Alert


I recall some weeks back when there was a brouhaha about a remark Barack Obama made indicating that his supporters may not rally behind Hillary Clinton is she were to get the nomination.  Some  arguments on the blogosphere went that Obama was the safer candidate since his supporters might stay home on election day if he were not on the ticket.


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"I am confident I will get her votes if I'm the nominee," Obama stressed. "It's not clear she would get the votes I got if she were the nominee."

Oops!

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I believe I've heard that floated around here as well, but polls suggest the opposite is the case (i.e., more Hillary supporters would sit out if Obama is the candidate than vice-versa). As others have said, I wouldn't put too much stock in either group's claims—there's a lot of emotion clouding people's judgment (admittedly including my own).

I heard Obama say that but his point wasn't that his voters would hate Clinton too much to vote for her. Instead it was that he was generating cross-over voters and that she was less likely to do that. This is different than simple peevishness.

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I can never get my full post out there! Here is the full text...


I recall some weeks back when there was a brouhaha about a remark Barack Obama made indicating that his supporters may not rally behind Hillary Clinton is she were to get the nomination. Some arguments on the blogosphere went that Obama was the safer candidate since his supporters might stay home on election day if he were not on the ticket.

Now Gallup has come out with a poll that suggests that 28% of Clinton supporters may not stay home, but will vote for McCain. Youch! There’s spoilers, and then there are SPOILERS.

Democrats are in the home stretch and the race is exceptionally tight. The value of Obama’s numerical superiority in delegates is cast in doubt by the exclusion of Florida and Michigan, and the resolution is creeping ever closer to a superdelegate decision. Each day new arguments are floated by the campaigns to sway the race’s outcome: it should be decided by the popular vote, it should be decided on projected electoral votes, it should be decided by Blue states won, it should be decided by the superdelegates’ consciences.

So let the dice roll since it can go either way with new primaries in the coming weeks and the convention still months away. What we might prepare ourselves for now is how we will behave as a party when the race is decided. Whoever wins will have a tough job reaching out to the losing team to bring them on board, and a lot will be riding on the behavior of whoever loses.

I suggest we are becoming victims of our own success. After eight of the most catastrophic years in politics, policy, and culture, we are offered candidates who are of the highest caliber (I’ll include John Edwards in this as well). We are also offered the most winnable election in memory, and control of the congress. We have, in short, too many good choices.

Election primaries are supposed to be hard scrabble; they’re a type of crucible that burns off the slag and hardens the metal. When the nominee appears on the rostrum and the band strikes up as balloons and streamers fall, the Democratic party could be making history; or it could be making a historical footnote. It all rides on November 4, and whether Obama supporters come out to vote for Clinton, or Clinton supporters pull the lever next to Obama’s name.

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