The Utah Factor
Utah is a deep red state that finds itself in an interesting situation this year that relates to so many parts of this primary election as it has played out.
Some demographic background about Utah may be helpful. Utah is a mostly white state, with the largest minority being the hispanic population at about 10%. The African American population makes up less than 2% of the total population. Religiously the state is 61% LDS (Mormon).
In the Utah primary this year, Senator Obama won convincingly over Senator Clinton on Super Tuesday (57-39%). Of course, Utah is a good example of where Gerry Ferraro is completely wrong. Utah did not vote for Senator Obama because he is black, Utah voted for him because of his message and his vision. People believe in him.
What makes the Democratic contest even more interesting is what happened in the Republican contest. Remember, Hillary has repeatedly used Utah as an example of a "red" state that has absolutely no chance of voting Democratic in November.
The thing to remember is that Mitt Romney is a Mormon, and a real darling to Utahns. On Super Tuesday, Mitt scored 90% of the Utah Republican vote to McCain's 5%, and note Huckabee's 2%. Utahns, Mormons, and Utah Mormons in particular have felt that McCain wronged Romney during the campaign, and that Huckabee ran against Romney on a flatly anti-Mormon stance. Real or not, that is definitely how it was perceived here.
So, what does this all mean. There were interesting exit polls taken in Utah on Super Tuesday. They showed that if the contest was between McCain and Clinton, McCain won by a wide margin. If between McCain and Obama, McCain still won, but by a fairly narrow margin. And, if it was Huckabee vs. Obama that Obama would win Utah. This is due to the very positive view Utahs have of Obama, and the very negative one they have of Huckabee. Even with this however, in this same exit poll, Huckabee beat Clinton.
So, now that McCain has the nomination, for Utah voters it will depend somewhat on who he picks as a VP. If Romney, then Utah will stay overwhelmingly red. If however, McCain picks Huckabee to woo the southern conservatives, Utah may actually be in play for Obama. Under no circumstances is it in play for Clinton.
Some demographic background about Utah may be helpful. Utah is a mostly white state, with the largest minority being the hispanic population at about 10%. The African American population makes up less than 2% of the total population. Religiously the state is 61% LDS (Mormon).
In the Utah primary this year, Senator Obama won convincingly over Senator Clinton on Super Tuesday (57-39%). Of course, Utah is a good example of where Gerry Ferraro is completely wrong. Utah did not vote for Senator Obama because he is black, Utah voted for him because of his message and his vision. People believe in him.
What makes the Democratic contest even more interesting is what happened in the Republican contest. Remember, Hillary has repeatedly used Utah as an example of a "red" state that has absolutely no chance of voting Democratic in November.
The thing to remember is that Mitt Romney is a Mormon, and a real darling to Utahns. On Super Tuesday, Mitt scored 90% of the Utah Republican vote to McCain's 5%, and note Huckabee's 2%. Utahns, Mormons, and Utah Mormons in particular have felt that McCain wronged Romney during the campaign, and that Huckabee ran against Romney on a flatly anti-Mormon stance. Real or not, that is definitely how it was perceived here.
So, what does this all mean. There were interesting exit polls taken in Utah on Super Tuesday. They showed that if the contest was between McCain and Clinton, McCain won by a wide margin. If between McCain and Obama, McCain still won, but by a fairly narrow margin. And, if it was Huckabee vs. Obama that Obama would win Utah. This is due to the very positive view Utahs have of Obama, and the very negative one they have of Huckabee. Even with this however, in this same exit poll, Huckabee beat Clinton.
So, now that McCain has the nomination, for Utah voters it will depend somewhat on who he picks as a VP. If Romney, then Utah will stay overwhelmingly red. If however, McCain picks Huckabee to woo the southern conservatives, Utah may actually be in play for Obama. Under no circumstances is it in play for Clinton.
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Naw, Utahns voted for Obama because he still looks like an RM.
March 14, 2008 1:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
Exactly, an RM with a message.
March 14, 2008 1:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ok, here are the actual numbers from the exit polls...
"Clinton vs McCain: McCain wins by a landslide with 71%
Obama vs McCain: McCain wins 55% to 45%, a surprisingly slim margin in GOP Utah
Clinton vs Huckabee: Huckabee wins convincingly 59% to 41%
Obama vs Huckabee: Obama wins 58% to 42%
Put McCain and Huckabee on the same ticket and put them against Obama and, well, it's plausible that Obama would win."
Here is the link to the NPR article with the numbers...
http://www.npr.org/blogs/news/2008/02/2008_headline_utah_goes_for_ob.html
Note: I didn't realize how much of my background explanation matched the NPR blog as I hadn't read it when I wrote mine (but I was familiar with the polls).
March 14, 2008 1:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
Interesting.
One thing you have to keep in mind when dealing with Utah is where the bastions of liberals are (yes we do exist). Salt Lake City (proper, not the suburbs) and Park City are overwhelmingly liberal, as are Carbon County (mining town) and Toole County. The reason this is important is because the areas of the state Clinton won (and handily I might add) are Carbon and Toole county, ie the traditional Dem strongholds. This mirrors perfectly the national numbers with working class Dems voting for Hillary, and latte/wine (whatever we are now) urban Dems voting for Obama.
I think those exit numbers are wrong, for what it's worth. I think Utah will be more competitive with Obama on the ticket, but I don't think it switches. The more recent SUSA numbers show Obama losing by 11, and Clinton losing by 38. Eleven is still a lot, don't get me wrong, he's definitely more competitive here, but I just don't see it happening as much as I would like it to.
The benefit of Obama being on the ticket is that it pretty much guarantees Matheson is re-elected in District 2, I'm not sure what Clinton does to turnout, but that seat while safer than it was 4 years ago will never be safe and she definitely has negative coattails here.
March 14, 2008 2:29 AM | Reply | Permalink