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Update: Popular Vote Including Caucuses


I have updated my estimates of the popular vote including caucuses to include Mississippi.  For background and an explanation of methods and data see my previous post at http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/03/popular-vote-estimates-includi-1.php

The updated results are:

Total without Michigan and Florida
Clinton 12,803,453 (46.5%)
Obama 13,609,562 (49.5%)
Obama lead 806,109

Total with Florida but not Michigan
Clinton 13,674,439 (46.7%)
Obama 14,185,776 (48.5%)
Obama lead 511,337

Total including Florida and Michigan
Clinton 14,002,748 (46.9%)
Obama 14,345,636 (48.1%)
Obama lead 342,888

Here is the breakdown of primaries versus caucuses. I am only showing the results without Florida and Michigan, but you can easily calculate the primary results for the other versions by simply subtracting the caucus results from the totals above.

Without Michigan and Florida
Primaries
Clinton 12,349,804 (47.1%)
Obama 12,854,603 (49.1%)
Obama lead 504,799

Caucuses
Clinton 453,649 (34.7%)
Obama 754,959 (57.8%)
Obama lead 301,310
12,803,453
12,803,453

2 Comments

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It's over, with Obama the winner, unless Clinton tries to bring down the temple by coercing the supers.

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Superdelegates and the DNC need to hear from rank-and-file Democrats:

Contacting the DNC:
Mailing Address:

Democratic National Committee
430 S. Capitol St. SE
Washington, DC 20003

Main Phone Number: 202-863-8000
For questions about contributions, call 877-336-7200

Email form at: http://www.democrats.org/page/s/contact

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