ARG has not been proved to be particularly stable, issuing results that swing around a bit.
If you believe that ONE poll, which had them tied recently, accurately reflects reality when their numbers swing 20 points overnight, you are being naive. But I would guess it is more that, no matter how inaccurate if is to anyone with a any sense, this is the only thing akin to good news that Hill's desperate supporters can grasp onto.
Obama's gotten bounces all throgh this thing, and always in response to these attacks. This will be the same, you will see Obama pass Hillary by the middle of the week, and have her by three or four points after the PA primary.
Have we all somehow forgotten that just a few short weeks ago, ALL the polls had her up by twenty?
Another Obama bounce is about to occur, and the timing couldn't be worse for the Clinton campaign.
Troll alert!
I was wondering about this also. Sure it's one poll, but show a 20 point swing in one week should set off some alarms. Either the polling process was just skewed and this is truly a "throw away" outlier, or this "bitter" flap is hurting Obama badly in PA.
It's probably a little of both. I don't think it can be easily dismissed.
I've been trying to ignore the polls, because otherwise they give me artificial jumps of hope and artificial troughs of concern, and this isn't a football game, it's an election.
But since you point it out, I take comfort in the fact that ARG is the extreme poll here and that, even after the good will of the compassion forum last night, the MSM is still pushing strife strife strife (not that I didn't expect that). So the strife of posting the extreme poll isn't that surprising.
I find that pollster.com and its average of all of the polls is a much better indicator than just one random poll. It's on the front page here. Also, check out their current chart of the PA poll:
That is according the ARG poll. Another poll out today has her up by 3 points. Gallup poll out today has Obama leading nationally by 10 points.
Polls, polls, polls. Let's see what happens when voters vote in Pennsylvania.
April 14, 2008 1:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
The only poll that counts is next week.
April 14, 2008 1:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Which poll shows her up by 3 points?
April 14, 2008 1:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Susquehana poll...
And notice how lonesome that ARG poll looks on this list linked here... way off the rest of them...
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html
April 14, 2008 1:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
ARG has not been proved to be particularly stable, issuing results that swing around a bit.
April 14, 2008 1:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
If you believe that ONE poll, which had them tied recently, accurately reflects reality when their numbers swing 20 points overnight, you are being naive. But I would guess it is more that, no matter how inaccurate if is to anyone with a any sense, this is the only thing akin to good news that Hill's desperate supporters can grasp onto.
Obama's gotten bounces all throgh this thing, and always in response to these attacks. This will be the same, you will see Obama pass Hillary by the middle of the week, and have her by three or four points after the PA primary.
Have we all somehow forgotten that just a few short weeks ago, ALL the polls had her up by twenty?
Another Obama bounce is about to occur, and the timing couldn't be worse for the Clinton campaign.
April 14, 2008 1:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Troll alert!
April 14, 2008 1:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
I was wondering about this also. Sure it's one poll, but show a 20 point swing in one week should set off some alarms. Either the polling process was just skewed and this is truly a "throw away" outlier, or this "bitter" flap is hurting Obama badly in PA.
It's probably a little of both. I don't think it can be easily dismissed.
April 14, 2008 1:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've been trying to ignore the polls, because otherwise they give me artificial jumps of hope and artificial troughs of concern, and this isn't a football game, it's an election.
But since you point it out, I take comfort in the fact that ARG is the extreme poll here and that, even after the good will of the compassion forum last night, the MSM is still pushing strife strife strife (not that I didn't expect that). So the strife of posting the extreme poll isn't that surprising.
April 14, 2008 1:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
I find that pollster.com and its average of all of the polls is a much better indicator than just one random poll. It's on the front page here. Also, check out their current chart of the PA poll:
http://www.pollster.com/08PAPresDems.php
I find the "trend lines" for each candidate the most telling.
April 14, 2008 2:06 PM | Reply | Permalink