Disappointing Results in Bucks County
Lots of people expected Clinton to do well in rural counties, but I am dismayed by how well she did in Bucks County, a relatively affluent county north of Philadelphia that traditionally votes liberal.
These numbers give me serious pause:
Obama 42,869 37.7%
Clinton 71,830 62.6%
Compare to the numbers in the past two presidential elections:
2004
Kerry 163,438 51.1%
Bush 154,469 48.3%
2000
Gore 132,914 50.46%
Bush 121,927 46.29%
Nader 6,294 2.39%
Obama should have done much better in this affluent county, a place where guns and religion don't have untoward significance.
Running, in effect, as a republican, Hillary really beat Obama up.
Any explanations?
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Racism.
April 23, 2008 11:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
The area switched to Democrat this election, along with Montgomery. Interesting to note that both of these wound up going to Clinton while the ones that stayed majority Republican (by narrower margins), Chester and Delaware, went to Obama. I just thought this was worth a mention.
April 23, 2008 11:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
Referring to Philly suburbs, of course. Sorry for not making that clear.
April 23, 2008 11:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
Right. but look at the Montgomery results. they are much closer.
Obama 75,682 49.3%
Clinton 77,886 50.7%
Montgomery has been much heralded for becoming predominantly Democratic this March.
Why would Bucks County not follow the same trend? Surely there's a lot of racism against Obama, and I've seen it myself in working on the campaign.
But it seems odd that Bucks would be so out of step with the other affluent Philly suburbs that you mention.
I'm not suspicious of any wrong doing, but I am deeply puzzled and troubled by this discrepancy.
April 23, 2008 11:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
Montgomery County is more citified, being close in to Philly. It has more diversity and more recent city people.
Bucks is richer, more white, and has a lot of older people from th 60s-70s "white flight" generation.
Plus they have Montgomery County as a buffer from new city people (a diverse bunch -- Indian, Asian, black, white) moving outward.
April 23, 2008 12:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not sure, but I heard this morning that Obama still won the Republican defection vote.
This would mean that Obama is not winning enough of the Republican vote or loosing too much of the Dem vote.
David Brooks noted that these suburban areas would be the real bellweather for Obama's chances in the GE.
Right now it doesn't look good.
April 23, 2008 11:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
David Brooks is a GOP hack, so take his "concern" with a grain of salt.
April 23, 2008 12:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
He might be a GOP pundit, but I do think that most of his observations are revealing. I think his observations on this are right on.
Early on Brooks gave Obama a lot of props for being a different kind of politician. But that perception for Brooks has been eroding and maybe for the indy voter as well.
April 23, 2008 12:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry, it's all a ploy. He's spinning things according to the GOP playbook.
April 23, 2008 4:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
I disagree with Brooks all the time, but I have learned some things from him too. Bucks County may be a bellweather for the electorate (though in the general it will pull in a lot of independents.) I think the Obama folks need carefully to study what went wrong there and not just write it off. Solving Bucks County might help them in other suburban, high turn-out areas of the northeast.
April 23, 2008 5:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
No, it doesn't, especially because it is difficult to write this county off with the usual explanations. The county is filled with the kinds of voters that Brooks likes to smear --the white, educated, affluent voters who refuse to become Republicans (a party in which it must be okay to drive a Volvo, listen to NPR, and pick up coffee at Starbucks.)
April 23, 2008 12:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
In two words: White flight
The older demographics are all White Flight refugees who harbor resentment against minorities. They remember blacks, latinos and asians moving into "their" neighborhoods back in the city, and moved outward.
Especially in Bucks, which is further out from Philly, pretty affluent, but lily white. Not a lot of diversity there yet.
April 23, 2008 12:02 PM | Reply | Permalink