InsiderAdvantage: Clinton by 2 in North Carolina
InsiderAdvantage has a poll out showing Clinton up by 2 in North Carolina.
Election Inspection lays out why InsiderAdvantage polls are worthless in North Carolina.
Namely, it's because they've been absurdly wrong in every state east of the Mississippi and south of the Mason-Dixon, by 12-20 points in Clinton's favor every single time. So, basically, just add 12-20 to Obama's number, and voila! You have the same range that every other pollster predicts in this race.
Election Inspection lays out why InsiderAdvantage polls are worthless in North Carolina.
Namely, it's because they've been absurdly wrong in every state east of the Mississippi and south of the Mason-Dixon, by 12-20 points in Clinton's favor every single time. So, basically, just add 12-20 to Obama's number, and voila! You have the same range that every other pollster predicts in this race.
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I'm not sure how much longer I can take this before my head explodes.
May 1, 2008 12:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
64% of black voters for Senator Obama, i don't think so...
Nothing to worry...
May 1, 2008 12:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
Do they actually call people or just root through their garbage?
Hmmm. Garbage!
Tasty!
Meheheheh.
May 1, 2008 12:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
I am a Clinton supporter, but I looked at this poll, and it's an obviously messed up survey.
May 1, 2008 12:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm glad you're not taken in by these charlatans. I have a feeling the MyDD crowd will be less skeptical, however.
Wouldn't it be nice if Clinton supporters and Obama supporters were more often on the same page as to which polls are seriously wrong? Unlike some Obama supporters, I knew PPP's Pennsylvania poll was wrong, regardless of their other polls.
May 1, 2008 12:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
They're famous for having polls where 60% or more of the black turnout is female and voters over 65 outnumber 18-29 year olds 5 to one.
May 1, 2008 12:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, I just looked through the cross-tabs on that poll, and that's pretty much exactly what's going on here. It's not at all reflective on NC demographics, and the way these votes are going - even for the demographic categories they've got - aren't matching the other polling being done. Plus, they don't break down likely voters from people who have already cast early votes, and don't even clearly indicate that this is a Dem/unaffiliated voter poll versus a general population poll. I just think this is garbage.
May 1, 2008 1:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
The poll has African American turnout at 25%. That is pretty low. Other pollsters are saying about 33%, and I'm saying about 37%.
Also, the white vote is at 70%!!!!. Once again, other pollsters say differently. It should be at about 60-61%.
If we recalculate the numbers, Obama comes out on top by a pretty hefty margin. Nonetheless, this is probably okay for Obama. It lowers the stakes.
May 1, 2008 12:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
The 18-24 vote is only 11%. That's lower than our state average, even before factoring the Dem/Unaffiliated advantage this year. AND they only have the Af-Am vote breaking for Obama at 60%, which I find nearly impossible to believe.
May 1, 2008 1:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
Do they do exit polling with people who have voted early? It'd be interesting to see how things are going so far.
May 1, 2008 12:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, take a look right here: http://ccpsblog.blogspot.com/2008/04/how-do-north-carolina-polls-compare-to.html
May 1, 2008 1:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
thank you
May 1, 2008 1:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
Also, if you want an up-to-date number of votes cast, check out the North Carolina Board of Elections website: http://www.sboe.state.nc.us/Default.aspx?s=0
Look on the right hand side where it says "What's New."
May 1, 2008 1:11 AM | Reply | Permalink