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leaked sheet revisited
As an exercise i just looked back at the 2/6 leaked obama speadsheet.
contest, total delegates, projected obama delegates, actual obama result minus projected
LA 56, 31, +3
NE 24, 15, +1
VI 3, 2, +1
WA 78, 49, +4
ME 24, 10, +5
DC 15, 9,+3
MD 70, 37,+5
VA 83, 43,+11
HI 20, 11,+3
WI 74, 40,+2
OH 141, 68,-1
RI 21, 8,+0
TX 193, 92,+7
VT 15, 9,+0
WY 12, 7,+0
MS 33, 20,+0
PN 158, 75,-1
IN 72, 39
NC 115, 61
WV 28, 13
KY 51, 23
OR 52, 28
MT 16, 9
SD 15, 8
PR 55,25
thoughts:
1. the estimates have been very good.
2. the estimates give a 67 delegate win to obama and he has out performed them.
3. It looks to me like the nomination was won in the potomac primaries.
contest, total delegates, projected obama delegates, actual obama result minus projected
LA 56, 31, +3
NE 24, 15, +1
VI 3, 2, +1
WA 78, 49, +4
ME 24, 10, +5
DC 15, 9,+3
MD 70, 37,+5
VA 83, 43,+11
HI 20, 11,+3
WI 74, 40,+2
OH 141, 68,-1
RI 21, 8,+0
TX 193, 92,+7
VT 15, 9,+0
WY 12, 7,+0
MS 33, 20,+0
PN 158, 75,-1
IN 72, 39
NC 115, 61
WV 28, 13
KY 51, 23
OR 52, 28
MT 16, 9
SD 15, 8
PR 55,25
thoughts:
1. the estimates have been very good.
2. the estimates give a 67 delegate win to obama and he has out performed them.
3. It looks to me like the nomination was won in the potomac primaries.
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knowing where the voters are is a science. so you go after the ones that are best for you.
i would like to see something like scramble the districts game..feed info into a comp and let it randomly create voting districts and force these career and district safe bums to earn their victory.
April 24, 2008 1:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
There's an idea whose time has come.
April 24, 2008 1:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
Shows how brilliant and sewed up this has been. Shillary probably reads that and cries every night.
April 24, 2008 2:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
i wonder how much of the deviation from expected could be contributed to external forces like weather?
April 24, 2008 2:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
David Axelrod is a rock star strategist.
April 24, 2008 2:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
They predict a solid win in IN and NC. That means that Clinton's momentum will hit a brick wall, a wave of supers will pledge, and the pressure for her to get out will be unbearable.
April 24, 2008 2:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for the follow-up I remember the discussion around this a couple weeks ago. I have to admit, pretty amazing. Kind of funny but isn't this spreadsheet better than the SurveyUSA average?
April 24, 2008 2:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
PN=PA?
April 24, 2008 8:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
If he makes these numbers he needs 95 more Supers.
Yesterday's announcement that they were 300 votes away; this predicts 100 more pledged delegates on May 6th; this than predict 105 additional delegates from the last 7 contests. That leaves 95 supers that need to endorse Obama for him to go over the top, which is well under a third of the total outstanding.
April 24, 2008 8:39 AM | Reply | Permalink