Obama's Long Odds
Barack Obama's momentum in this race has clearly slowed down, if not stalled completely. According to recent polls, Indiana is tied (some polls now show Hillary ahead) and North Carolina is tightening. It's easy, if you're an Obama supporter, to get a little dicouraged about the current situation, but let's look at what he's up against. Barack Obama is currently under attack from a laundry list of powerful opponents:
1). Hillary Clinton
2). Bill Clinton, former president, and proxy/stand-in for the "Clinton years"
3). John McCain
4). The RNC
5). The NRCC
6). State-level Republicans
7). Republican 527's
8). Democratic 527's supporting Hillary Clinton
In contrast, Hillary Clinton is running against Barack Obama. The Republicans are essentially ignoring her.
As we enter the final stages of this nominating process, I'm going to try to keep this in mind. I think the superdelegates will as well.
Just a little buck-up for the troops.
1). Hillary Clinton
2). Bill Clinton, former president, and proxy/stand-in for the "Clinton years"
3). John McCain
4). The RNC
5). The NRCC
6). State-level Republicans
7). Republican 527's
8). Democratic 527's supporting Hillary Clinton
In contrast, Hillary Clinton is running against Barack Obama. The Republicans are essentially ignoring her.
As we enter the final stages of this nominating process, I'm going to try to keep this in mind. I think the superdelegates will as well.
Just a little buck-up for the troops.
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I have a feeling my comment got zapped into the Tubez of the Googles...
If Hillary Clinton were facing a similar fusillade of opposition, her numbers would be in Dukakis territory.
And you left out the media love of Rev. Jeremiah (It's ALL ABOUT ME!) Wright...
April 29, 2008 12:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not to mention the fact that it appears a Clinton supporter/Obama critic set up Wright's National Press Club appearance.
http://www.nydailynews.com/opinions/columnists/louis/index.html
April 29, 2008 12:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
I like Wright. I like his politics. I like his religion and I'm an atheist. And I especially like the fact that he's saying what he wants to say now, because now's the time to say it. In the long run he'll do an Obama presidency a great deal of good because what Obama will require more than anything else is the prodding of people like Wright to do the right things.
April 29, 2008 12:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, me too. If Wright was still the pastor of Trinity Church and I was in Chicago, I would love to go watch him deliver a sermon. The guy's intelligent, provocative, entertaining, and forces you to think. The more he shows up on the MSM, the more people will see just how seperate he is from Obama. People tend to be more afraid of the unknown.
April 29, 2008 12:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Odd thing - nobody talks about the size of the congregation in that church, the number of other races who are members, the numbers of conservatives who are members - and there are.
There is a conservative woman who is on Bill Mahr fairly regularly - she's young. The first time this came up she got riled and said: That was my church when I lived in Chicago.
She was hot in defense of Rev Wright. Amy ---?
April 29, 2008 7:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Amy Holmes.
I think Maher keeps her on because he likes pretty girls. She's also on CNN. Every once in a while she'll say something interesting.
April 29, 2008 7:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you.
I find her totally vacuous and I know exactly what Bill is doing.
He likes her rack.
He wants to fuck her.
Bill would fuck a chair.
Nevertheless, her spirited defense of Wright was rather interesting.
April 29, 2008 8:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Vacuous is a great way to describe her. She seems completely willing to spew whatever the GOP talking point du jour happens to be.
April 29, 2008 9:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bill would f%&* a chair.
Clinton or Maher?
April 30, 2008 9:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yes.
April 30, 2008 2:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think Wright is brilliant. I understand why Obama was moved to join his church. In fact, I have a few atheist friends who have said to me, if Christianity was really like that, I might consider it. I always tell them, it really IS like that. It's just that many Christians don't realize it, and few preachers know how to put the essence of it into words.
My favorite part of the discussion yesterday was when Wright answered the "I am the Way and the Light" question, which is the question that radical evangelicals use to condemn non-Christians to Hell. Wright's answer: "Jesus also said, 'I have many sheep and not all of them are of this fold'," just blew it away. The guy's brilliant.
April 29, 2008 12:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't agree with everything he says, but he reminds me of a pre-9/11 (or pre-Bill Clinton) Christopher Hitchens, a brilliant intellect that follows what he believes in to its logical conclusions. I think most Americans just aren't used to Christianity being as challenging as it is in Wright's view, or in any intellectually honest examination, without any compromises for American exceptionalism or capitalism.
And dammit if he isn't a funny son of a bitch.
April 29, 2008 1:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
"In the long run he'll do an Obama presidency a great deal of good because what Obama will require more than anything else is the prodding of people like Wright to do the right things."
Delusional. What he's done is sabotage Barack - as so many other Black religious leaders know - many pleaded with Wright not to go on the nmedia splurge he did. The result? Obama had to denounce him and now he's stuck with the result of that. Listen to black radio today: outrage - saying that Obama's now proved that he was always only using Wright to get his black certificate and has now flung him overboard. There are as many black folk now calling in denouncing Barack as last week there were denouncing Bill Clinton.
This whole thing has been devastating for Barack.
And while it's all going on Clinton is getting away with so much that will come up and cripple her in the general when the GOP turn their focus on her.
April 29, 2008 9:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
THEIR SUPER POWERS ARE USELESS AGAINST ME!
I still have my League of Superjagoffs!
Rezko
Auchi
Blackwell
Ayers
Wright (oops cross that one off)
Farrakhan
Meeks
Soros
OlbermanMaddow Man
And ME: Barry "The Super Messiah" Hussein Obama
April 30, 2008 10:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry folks. Obama is toast. I've got the new math and everyone knows that math does not lie.
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/04/new-clinton-endorsement-today.php
April 29, 2008 2:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, if Obama loses the next few contest by what?...30 points each? Maybe we should then get back to our virtual hand wringing.
April 29, 2008 12:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Agreed.
April 29, 2008 9:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Also remember that some of this reverses itself in the general.
Bill and Hillary will presumably do the right thing and start defending rather than attacking the candidate.
Hillary 527s can become Obama 527s.
Obama will be able train his resources on McCain.
April 29, 2008 12:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Absolutely. Smartest thing I've heard Dean say recently was that the loser of this contest is going to be the most important person for the fall election.
I'd kind of like to see Bill campaigning for Obama, being the Man from Hope and all...
April 29, 2008 12:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, I think worst of all the MSM is making him disappear right now. They want this thing to go to the convention. There ratings are through the roof right now. So they are trying to manufacture Clinton wins to carry this cash cow all they way to the bank.
This sickens me far more then anything. Not because they are showing preference but because they are showing preference because of money.
April 29, 2008 12:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not because they are showing preference but because they are showing preference because of money.
Oh hello, you must be new to America. Let me get you started on our most basic principle, everything is judged on profit and capital.
April 29, 2008 1:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sad, but true.
April 29, 2008 5:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
very very sad
very very true
April 29, 2008 6:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Momentum is a popular concept, but it's measurement in politics is not as easy to judge as it is in sports. You cannot base it on wins/losses alone, but rather on how much recent movement in a particular direction has occured. Pennsylvania proved momentum was still in Obama's favor considering he got her below double-digits when she was heavily favored. I doubt the small shifts in polling or winning states where she is favored is going to convince any supers to give their endorsement to Hillary. She needs to win NC before I believe she has the momentum. The more the media and opponents spin the more dizzy get Hillary supporters and weary get the voters.
April 29, 2008 12:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think it's over-analyzed in both politics and sports. The only momentum I believe in is p=γmv, p=hν/c, or p=-ih∇/2π.
April 29, 2008 12:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, heh. I was just about to post those formulas myself. You beat me to it. *:o)
April 29, 2008 12:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
It works in the stock market! I bought Pets.com at just the right... Ooops.
April 29, 2008 3:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wish I could find it again, but there was a great post here some time ago (I believe by FlyOnTheWall) that showed pretty definitively that state to state momentum is not at all apparent. What is of much greater concern is demographic trends, as most states tend to show results consistent with their demographic break-down.
April 29, 2008 6:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
This one? making the point that state primaries are discrete events, with each state voting according on its particular demographics.
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/03/wednesday-morning-questions-an.php
April 30, 2008 12:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
The media is actually largely powerless, which is ironic.
People made up their minds about Clinton and Obama months ago. Don't believe polls that say otherwise.
In reality no more than maybe 10% of people are truly undecided.
April 29, 2008 12:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Can you cite any evidence for this is or is it a little of the old conjecture?
April 29, 2008 5:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
what counts are superdelegates. Two yesterday, two today, and if the pace continues Obama will soon be drawing to a tie in supers with Clinton. The fact that superdelegates are committing now shows how little the latest Wright scandal is having on the race. The "real" race is the superdelegate race, and Obama is closing steadily on Clinton's lead.
April 29, 2008 12:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wright might be brilliant, but he's not doing Obama any favors...so what's he gaining from all this attention?
I thought his interview with Moyers was interesting. I think his subsequent speeches posed, and pose, a gigantic problem for Obama, because Obama can't talk about anything else, and have it paid attention to.
Wright is an albatross around Obama. What's he going to do to get that deadweight off?
April 29, 2008 1:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Maybe I'm too optimistic, but my sense is Wright is detaching himself from Obama, and I don't mean he's running a brilliant, subtle game to help Obama. I think his consistency (and, yes, more than a touch of ego) is creating a gulf between him and his views and Obama.
"I'll keep going after him...."
Isn't that what we all say about our candidates? That we're going to hold them to our ideals, not their convenience.
April 29, 2008 1:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Blue, I haven't followed the latest Wright stuff that much, but I think this is a good point. I would add that the more attention that Wright gets, the more he becomes "Reverend Wright" and the less he is "Obama's pastor".
PS I'm really glad that he retired.
April 29, 2008 1:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Personally, I think the best move of the entire campaign (both DNC and RNC sides) has been Obama's move to irritate MoveOn.org. Now he has *both* their endorsement *and* their condemnation.
Forget about p=hbar*wavelength, let's talk Schrodinger's Cat!
April 29, 2008 1:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
What happens when the wave collapses, though?
April 29, 2008 1:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
You have to paddle back to the beach.
April 29, 2008 7:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's decoherence time, which is where the Obama campaign is now.
April 30, 2008 9:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
hi clearthinker,
speaking of probabilistic states, i was a fan of your old avatar. so i thought i'd offer a couple suggestions for combination approaches. not sure whether this completely destroys both avatars or actually works, but anyway:
http://www.peasandhoney.com/images/clearthinker_combo_1.jpg
http://www.peasandhoney.com/images/clearthinker_combo_2.jpg
p.s. hope it's acceptable around here to tinker with someone else's avatar...
April 29, 2008 8:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ah! I like number 2.
April 29, 2008 9:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Number two is a total winner. I would also like to see the Kool-Aid man actually sitting in Rodin's pose, but this would be a much more difficult feat of illustration.
April 29, 2008 9:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Mind you this took under 3 minutes of clicking around in Illustrator--but I believe it helps illustrate your thinking, DF.
April 29, 2008 11:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Whoops! try this...
http://s5.largeimagehost.com/img/untilted/UsQtcQs/koolthinker.jpg.html
April 29, 2008 11:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, that's the idea. It's not quite there, but it's beginning to look awesome.
April 30, 2008 1:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
Color me impressed!
April 30, 2008 11:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
In contrast, Hillary Clinton is running against Barack Obama. The Republicans are essentially ignoring her.
Amazes me that Clinton supporters don't wonder why these hounds aren't baying. They've bought their own "She's been vetted!" nonsense.
April 29, 2008 1:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's because they really, truly believe she has no dark corners left to sniff in. I find it hard to fathom why, but they really do think she's their knight in shining armor.
April 29, 2008 7:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
My friends, it's John McCain AND Hillary Clinton who "can't close the deal". Obama is STILL winning. I read Josh's front pager just now, but I think he is wrong. Obama supporters are tired of Clinton, not tired of supporting Obama.
April 29, 2008 1:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, there are over 30% now who would vote for McCain over Obama. With numbers that high, that just about tells me all I need to know about what kinds of stuff she is telling her supporters.
April 29, 2008 1:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Weird that people on here that once condemned Wright are singing his praises. Either way, it is a distraction really. The MSM is loving it I assume.
April 29, 2008 1:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Weird that people on here that once condemned Wright are singing his praises.
And who would that be?
April 29, 2008 4:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Republican's are ignoring Clinton because they know that they would love to bring him down so they can face the Dem they planned on running against and because he is the front runner so if by some chance Hillary became the front runner again; they would jump right back at attacking her.
Your logic is circular and silly.
April 29, 2008 4:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Right. If he keeps getting two a day and she keeps getting two a day, he should close her SD lead in no time...oh...wait.
April 29, 2008 5:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Brand,
It's true that two for Obama and two for Clinton a day doesn't get him a superdelegate lead.
But 288 for him and 288 for her makes him the Democratic nominee and the next president of the United States.
April 29, 2008 6:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
With friends like those who needs enemies?
And given how he's doing with the Clintons and their cabal, imagine how well he'll do if they just stop opposing him?
April 29, 2008 7:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
As an unknown black guy with a funny name, I am surprised he made it this far. I knew that TPTB would fight and push this guy out of the race. It's not over.
April 29, 2008 9:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, it's over for Hillary.
:)
April 29, 2008 9:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ah! I like number 2.
April 29, 2008 9:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
TenaX, I know that is not really you, for you would not say such things.
I think I heard someone say that Barack qualified for an affirmative action bump.
How is Hillary supposed to compete wit that? I think female minority only get a quater bump.
I guess you are right, as you have said so many times, "it's over for Hillary". Who besides Bush and Chenny could be wrong for ever.
Are those bad old repubs picking on your little boy? Shame, shame on you McBush.
April 29, 2008 10:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you for the post, I agree
April 30, 2008 5:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
Good Job with this Post.
As we all know we are more integral to Obama's campaign than most supporters have been historically. We need to taker note from Obama-not too high during the great times; not too low when things get tough.
As Ghandi always said, in the end truth always triumphs. Obama is the first real candidate on the progressive side that we have had in any of our adult life times.
We know that all the powers of the status quo are against him. This explains HRC's vehement kitchen sink strategy for she is the ultimate corporate democrat.
Let's keep our spirits up-Obama will prevail because he is what this moment in time requires.
YES WE CAN- GO OBAMA!!!!
April 30, 2008 9:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
The markets are pricing in a different opinion.
At intrade.com
Hillary's odds have just collapsed this morning by ten percent.
While, indeed, Obama's odds had fallen from 80 percent to just under 74 percent over the course of Monday and Tuesday, his price has recovered up to 76 today.
The other thing to note is that Obama's losses on Monday and Tuesday in the prediction markets was a gain shared by Clinton and Gore! Punters were not convinced that Obama's problems made Clinton's fundamentals any better.
April 30, 2008 10:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
It is called frontrunner status!
...and of all the so-called Obama opponents, you forgot to list the three most formidable of them all:
1. Rev. Dr. Jeremiah Right
2. Inexperience
3. "Joe Six-pack"
April 30, 2008 10:48 AM | Reply | Permalink