Perhaps the prolonged primary really is good for Obama
Howard Dean and a lot of Obama supporters have been calling for this to 'end' sooner rather than later, but perhaps in the end, it will turn out that the prolonged primary really has been good for Obama.
Here's my thoughts...
1. One thing that keeps coming up by the pundits in the MSM (why I watch CNN on primary nights, I have no idea) is that Obama is a new comer, unknown to voters. Well, the prolonged primary has allowed him to get a jump start on power campaigning in 50 states. All 50 states are getting to know him, and that will help him in November. He is still packing in the crowds in each state he goes to because the race is ongoing. It will serve him well when he re-visits leading up to November.
2. He's now been vetted. I think Hillary has thrown every she's got (and that the republicans are likely to have) at him and he has come out looking stronger each time. I think he will stand up to the Republican attack machine better for having dealt with it early. So, perhaps Hillary is right, and she is doing him a favor by vetting him now. Had this ended after OH/TX, the vetting wouldn't have happened, and for Wright to break for the first time in September / October would have been much worse.
3. He has established an amazing grassroots / internet / blogosphere campaign machine. As with the 50 state benefit above, he is continuing to grow the huge grassroots movement, heading for 1,500,000 donors in this primary. Had it ended early, it would actually be smaller going into November.
So, as much as I am an Obama supporter, and as much as I would like to see him as the nominee now (we are so into instant gratification, aren't we), perhaps the best course for November is for the campaigns to go into June and Obama to win it after having the opportunity to present himself in and campaign in all the states.
Here's my thoughts...
1. One thing that keeps coming up by the pundits in the MSM (why I watch CNN on primary nights, I have no idea) is that Obama is a new comer, unknown to voters. Well, the prolonged primary has allowed him to get a jump start on power campaigning in 50 states. All 50 states are getting to know him, and that will help him in November. He is still packing in the crowds in each state he goes to because the race is ongoing. It will serve him well when he re-visits leading up to November.
2. He's now been vetted. I think Hillary has thrown every she's got (and that the republicans are likely to have) at him and he has come out looking stronger each time. I think he will stand up to the Republican attack machine better for having dealt with it early. So, perhaps Hillary is right, and she is doing him a favor by vetting him now. Had this ended after OH/TX, the vetting wouldn't have happened, and for Wright to break for the first time in September / October would have been much worse.
3. He has established an amazing grassroots / internet / blogosphere campaign machine. As with the 50 state benefit above, he is continuing to grow the huge grassroots movement, heading for 1,500,000 donors in this primary. Had it ended early, it would actually be smaller going into November.
So, as much as I am an Obama supporter, and as much as I would like to see him as the nominee now (we are so into instant gratification, aren't we), perhaps the best course for November is for the campaigns to go into June and Obama to win it after having the opportunity to present himself in and campaign in all the states.
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I've been in agreement with this as well. Having spent most of my life in a state with a late primary, Pennsylvania, it's great to be part of the process this time around. Someone from Oregon commented here today that they are looking forward to voting next month. What's wrong with a 50-state primary/caucus process? It's nice when it wraps up early, but having it stretch out does benefit the process of establishing grassroots campaigns in every state. Plus Obama is getting an excellent workout to prepare him for the general.
Go Obama! Change in '08!
April 23, 2008 3:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
The only way it's good for Obama is if he does get the nomination. I'm confident he will, but I was confident Kerry would defeat Bush.
April 23, 2008 3:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
It would be good for Obama if Hillary wasn't running a Republican campaign against him giving McCain and Co a head start at framing Obama and making certain things stick.
If you think about it, if the primary was over and McCain was using Clinton's plan of attack, Obama could defend himself more vigorously AND all of the Democratic party would be rallying around to defend him. Right now Clinton and McCain are attacking Obama and the Democrats by in large have to sit on the side lines. Obama cannot attack Clinton with equal vigor because he needs the bulk of her supporters to vote for him if the Dems have any hope at beating McCain in November, so he has to play nice - and in playing nice Hillary is now using the fact that "he can't close" against him.
Worst of all is that Hillary has praised McCain many times during the primary season, and has moved close to him on some issues to the point where she seems to be making it easier for her supporters to eventually back McCain out of spite. I mean it's not about Healthcare or the war anymore because they are too close for any voter edge differences, so she has to make it personal, and thus supporters have made it personal. If the differences were just about policy, it would be easy to say that the party will come together, however with it becoming a personal mudslinging election, kissing and making up will not be nearly as easy.
April 23, 2008 3:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
I would agree with this except that Clinton's only strategy now is to make Obama unacceptable to the party and to destroy him the man not his positions on issues. The longer this goes on the more free advertising the GOP Swiftboaters will have had courtesy of Mrs. Clinton.
Not to mention think about how heated many of both of their supporters have become in our support for our candidates! The longer this goes with this type of intensity the more we will be divided going into the fall.
I'm not saying that we can't get past all this once the nominee is settled, but I think it gets harder and harder the longer and stronger this fights goes on.
April 23, 2008 3:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
As I was flipping around the cable news networks last night, I managed to catch Rove on Fox talking about this and was surprised at how fair his assessment is.
Basically, it's a mixed bag for McCain right now. The Dems are bludgeoning each other, but on the other hand the Democratic Party right now is the one with all the energy. The Democratic Party is a major Thunderstorm, the GOP is just a listless cloud hanging in the sky.
Rove said that the bottomline is that eventually the day will come that all this will end and a Democratic candidate will be chosen. When that happens, you're going to see a major surge behind the Democratic Candidate and McCain's magic carpet ride is going to sputter and fall. At that point, and McCain's ability to climb back, is when the real general election starts.
April 23, 2008 4:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
The only upside I see of this, other than the state-by-state organizing which I agree is a huge bonus, is that it confirms that (1) Obama is the superior candidate, and (2) if Rev. Wright and "bitter"gate are the best the Clinton campaign can throw at him, there isn't much dirt on him at all. I think he's gonna pull through just fine.
But I'm so happy that Greg/Missouri and others are working toward a win in Indiana!
April 23, 2008 5:20 PM | Reply | Permalink