The Other 100 Million
Hillary and Barack have so far split the votes 50/50 in the primary. About 30 million people have voted.
But what's going to win this election in November for the Democrats is going to be the 100 million or so non-die-hard-Bush-McCain-republicans that could vote for the Democratic nominee in the general.
Now, from what I can tell, Hillary conviction that she can win and Barack couldn't is largely predicated on her conviction that a lot of those people are so bigoted that they would come out to vote against Obama or stay home and refuse to vote for a black president.
Barack and his campaign, on the other hand, has always been predicated on a faith in the American people. Not only that they would be more open-minded than the mainstream media would have you believe, but also that they are smart enough to see through the sham politics that's played on their backs.
I share that optimism, and from what we've seen so far, people are not only sick with the way this country has been heading for the last 8 years, they're sick of what politics has become.
Barack STILL has what it takes to bring a lot of these "disaffected voters", and energize them, the way he has in the earlier contests, and that's why I believe he'd have a much better chance of getting a lot more of these voters than Sen. Clinton.
For all it's worth, Sen. Clinton is as entrenched as a Washington politician as you can get, and I'd say that comes with all the good and the bad, but I think especially now, at this time, that image carries more bad with it than good.
But what's going to win this election in November for the Democrats is going to be the 100 million or so non-die-hard-Bush-McCain-republicans that could vote for the Democratic nominee in the general.
Now, from what I can tell, Hillary conviction that she can win and Barack couldn't is largely predicated on her conviction that a lot of those people are so bigoted that they would come out to vote against Obama or stay home and refuse to vote for a black president.
Barack and his campaign, on the other hand, has always been predicated on a faith in the American people. Not only that they would be more open-minded than the mainstream media would have you believe, but also that they are smart enough to see through the sham politics that's played on their backs.
I share that optimism, and from what we've seen so far, people are not only sick with the way this country has been heading for the last 8 years, they're sick of what politics has become.
Barack STILL has what it takes to bring a lot of these "disaffected voters", and energize them, the way he has in the earlier contests, and that's why I believe he'd have a much better chance of getting a lot more of these voters than Sen. Clinton.
For all it's worth, Sen. Clinton is as entrenched as a Washington politician as you can get, and I'd say that comes with all the good and the bad, but I think especially now, at this time, that image carries more bad with it than good.
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ARGH!
HILLARY CLINTON IS THE KIND OF WENCH THAT A REPUBLICAN CORPORATE RAIDER CAN LOVE! PIRATE STYLE!
ARGH!
April 30, 2008 10:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is creepy... I'm downloading Pirates of the Carribean online Disney game for my son as I'm cruising the TPM posts, sound effects and all.
April 30, 2008 10:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
This 100 million you speak of... would have fallen all over themselves to vote for Colin Powell on a Republican ticket.
Me thinks Powell will come out for Obama against McCain when this Democratic primary season fizzles out. Me also thinks he wouldn't do the same for Hillary.
April 30, 2008 10:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
I used to think Colin Powell would be the first black president but he went in front of the UN and told that awful lie. Then we find out that he was a part of the torture gatherings in the WH. I think he lost the respect of millions of people. I wonder if John McCain would put him on his ticket?
April 30, 2008 11:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
i have the same feeling
April 30, 2008 11:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think thats also, amongst other things, why he stepped down.
I understand the man has made some bad decisions sticking with the Bush crowd. But he gained some respect simply bowing down, prior to any pressure, while he could still look himself in the mirror(if he can). I think this is a subject that has gone untouched.
Has their even been a public interview with him and explaining REALLY why he decided to leave? I mean he had planned his retirement, and for politics it was definitely a little premature.
April 30, 2008 11:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Now, from what I can tell, Hillary conviction that she can win and Barack couldn't is largely predicated on her conviction that a lot of those people are so bigoted that they would come out to vote against Obama or stay home and refuse to vote for a black president."
This is just the sort of uplifting, unifying commentary I have come to expect from the Obama supporters on this website. Hillary's campaign is based upon an overtly racist appeal. I don't pretend to know who would make the best candidate, but this is about the most divisive, destructive message out there. Did you consider that the Clinton campaign might just actually believe she can win because more voters think she would make a better President than Obama? Might this be based upon their belief that she has more relevant experience, that their memories of the Clinton administration compare quite favorably to the past eight years, that she would make a better steward of the economy, that their foreign policy views are more centrist than Obama's, etc.? Or would you rather just dismiss them them as ignorant racists? Could you fathom the possibility that Obama's message of transformation does not necessarily resonate with all groups equally, that many voters are more interested in a results oriented approach? I'm not saying I'm in agreement with these arguments, but your point is a better example of race-baiting than anything I've seen from the Clintons.
May 1, 2008 1:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
Umm, armchair, the problem with your thesis is that you are buying into the whole, more people voted for me MEME. This is ONLY true if you do not give Barack Obama one single solitary vote in Michigan.
Or if you disenfranchise all those people (like me) who had no choice but to vote in a caucus. I will tell you one thing, if Clinton is really willing to say my vote dose not count because I happen to live in a caucus state then she won't have it in the fall.
And if she doesn't want people saying the worst about her maybe she needs to lay off the slime for a while. It's not too hard for us to feel like we have been violated by her when she is always just on the border of campaign decency.
Also the idea that just because we believe in his message means we are against a results oriented approach is ridiculous. You know what, I'll say it, Bill Clinton boned the American worker with Nafta, He boned our right to real news with his media consolidation bill, and he boned us with some of his other big business favoring bills as well.
I am voting for Obama because I believe he WANTS to deliver results. Clinton really would promise you a pocket full of hand job giving fairies if she thought it would get your vote.
Maybe Obama is no different. We'll see. However I KNOW Clinton is full of it.
May 1, 2008 1:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
Jsmith: Your reasons for preferring Obama to Hillary are all valid ones that I have no issue with. Nor was I trying to imply that Hillary is leading by any metric - although I wouldn't necessarily concede that Obama's slim advantage makes him a better candidate in the general. My issue is with the poster's contention that HRC's candidacy is based on a belief that white people won't vote for Obama. That is race baiting. It is also hideously condescending. Most importantly, it's flat out wrong. For someone to make such a claim and in the same breath insist they are supporting a candidacy based upon unity is beyond hypocracy.
May 1, 2008 10:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
You should read Mark Harperlin's TIME piece that basically says exactly that.
That's been her main premise before Wright came up, and Wright "validated" her concern about reservations people have for voting for a black person.
As for her "experience" and "fighter" themes, a lot of people think they're manufactured to "sell" her as a candidate - check the polls. 60% of people believe she'll say anything and do anything to be elected. Those are not people that can be convinced by a photo-op.
May 1, 2008 2:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ahh, then I overreacted. I am just really tired of hearing people tell e I don't count because I drug my ass out to caucus or repeating the line that she is winning the popular vote. It's intellectually dishonest at best and flat out insulting at worst.
I am upset with Clinton more for her constant message of leave no voter out,... except those caucus goers.
Also I think people are mainly just pointing out that she seems to be using some racial biases as a tactic. I don't think many people really believe she's a racist. Obama is VERY careful not to say anything that could be construed by anyone as sexist, he may make a mistake in wording once or twice, but overall he has been very good at this. Clinton seems to always be walking the line, planting the idea without seeming obvious. This is what's upsetting.
It is also true that pointing at Obama saying periodically and going SEE SEE!! Is sex baiting. It was obviously not what he meant, at the time her actions were VERY erratic.
Tension is just high, Obama supporters are watching as he gets smeared by the Republicans, the media, Mcain, Hillary, and Bill Clinton. The fact that he is holding any lead in any olls at all is impressive. Clinton may have had less of a fair shake before, but this is downright nasty. She has dirty laundry out there and her supporters should be just as angry with the media for saving it in case she wins the nomination as we are with them airing Obamas on a 24 - 7 schedule to make sure this nomination goes to the end so they can make a buck.
Anyways, I am babbling now. Jeez I want this all to be over.
May 2, 2008 12:17 AM | Reply | Permalink