Which voters are susceptible to rightwing attack ads?
Is there any data as to which people flip Republican after seeing the Gross Old Party's fabled attack ads?
With no data to go on, my sense is that it's the white working-class voters Hillary so proudly claims as her own. The ads seem designed to make these very people feel threatened by blacks, gays, immigrants, etc.
My deep analysis says blacks don't flip Republican based on Willy Horton ads, affluent Democrats don't flip Republican based on images of gay marriages, highly educated progressives don't flip Republican at the mention of socialized medicine, reality-based foreign policy wonks don't flip Republican after seeing the umpteenth image of Osama bin Laden, etc.
Why should we believe white working-class voters won't desert Hillary when the first ad demonizes her based on God knows what trumped up charges?
With no data to go on, my sense is that it's the white working-class voters Hillary so proudly claims as her own. The ads seem designed to make these very people feel threatened by blacks, gays, immigrants, etc.
My deep analysis says blacks don't flip Republican based on Willy Horton ads, affluent Democrats don't flip Republican based on images of gay marriages, highly educated progressives don't flip Republican at the mention of socialized medicine, reality-based foreign policy wonks don't flip Republican after seeing the umpteenth image of Osama bin Laden, etc.
Why should we believe white working-class voters won't desert Hillary when the first ad demonizes her based on God knows what trumped up charges?
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Just playing devil's advocate here, but is it possible that blacks flip Republican based on images of gay marriages or after seeing the umpteenth image of Osama bin Laden, affluent Democrats flip Republican based on Willy Horton ads or at the mention of socialized medicine, etc.?
Well, nothing gets past us "highly educated progressives", but I think you get the idea. ;)
April 24, 2008 2:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
I should have been more rigorous, but that would have required coding an interactive HTML table.
April 24, 2008 2:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think if you had been more rigorous, however, you might have seen that it's not just the middle class white folk who can be swayed. Religious black folk (or religious white folk) can be swayed by gay marriage issues. Affluent Democrats might flip Republican based on Willy Horton ads.
I'm guessing that the middle class white folk are at greater risk, but it's definitely not the only demographic that partake in low-information voting.
April 24, 2008 3:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good points, Ben. Come to think of it, if Swiftkennel Veterinarians for Truth ran an ad about a Democratic candidate abusing beagles, I'd pay close attention.
Wish there was some data that would shed light on prospects in the general election. As it stands, we know the attacks will come and have no clue how many voters will flip based on hogwash.
April 24, 2008 3:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, I think the SVT is drunk on power after taking down Romney.
April 24, 2008 3:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Cracked me up.
I didn't even realize SVT was on the case!
April 24, 2008 4:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
but is it possible that blacks flip Republican based on images of gay marriages
While a major of blacks maybe conservative, I really think they are ready to get that sucker out of the White House and any mention of John McCain is not good. I haven't done a scientific poll, but I willing to bet black voters are thinking about economic issues rather than so-called culture clashes.
April 24, 2008 3:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
I should've been more specific. I merely meant that there is merely a segment of black Americans that is highly homophobic. There's also a segment of white Americans that is highly homophobic, but they're much more likely to already be Republican.
Nevertheless, I agree it's even only a fraction of that homophobic segment that could be convinced to vote McCain.
April 24, 2008 4:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
My gut feeling is that more people who voted for Obama in the primary would vote for Hillary in the general. She would loose the people who voted for her.
April 24, 2008 4:01 PM | Reply | Permalink