Will Obama Go Negative
Will Obama Go Negative?
For the last several weeks I’ve had what I considered a pretty clear idea of how I thought things would play in Pennsylvania, and up until now I’ve been pretty close. I was always of the opinion that Obama would close the gap to single digits in the weeks prior to the primary, maybe even take a slight lead. I thought that come Wednesday or Thursday of this week Hillary would start with a 3 a.m. ad, or the like, and some 527 would start running a Jeremiah Wright ad and Hillary would win going away by double digits, similar to the Ohio situation.
But last week I saw the SUSA poll showing Hillary up by 18 pts. I thought that must be an outlier, until today when I saw the ARG poll giving Hillary a 20 Point lead. Then I thought, Maybe she doesn’t need to go negative. She could just run ads accentuating whatever it is that small town white people tell pollsters they prefer about her over Obama. Then just allow the media to remind the voters of the elitist comments Obama made in a bath house in San Francisco while receiving a pedicure from Tony Lane. That should be good for 15 points.
Obama can’t just sit back and take that. Especially after he out spent Hillary 3 to 1 in the state. If he loses Pennsylvania by 20 points, the narrative changes. He is no longer inevitable. Hillary’s argument about winning the right voters and the right states starts to gain significant credibility. It leaves him terribly situated for Indiana and opens the possibility of Hillary winning North Carolina. There are 5 undeclared Indiana Congressmen in Indiana, How many of then are going to endorse Obama if Hillary wins the State by 15%?
Obama will go negative to forestall this possibility. I don’t know what the content of the negativity will be (maybe, “If you don’t know that you don’t sip out of a shot glass, you’ll destroy our relations with our new eastern European allies, and therefore destroy NATO.”), but I bet that no later than Thursday night Obama goes Negative (comparative if you prefer) in a big way.
For the last several weeks I’ve had what I considered a pretty clear idea of how I thought things would play in Pennsylvania, and up until now I’ve been pretty close. I was always of the opinion that Obama would close the gap to single digits in the weeks prior to the primary, maybe even take a slight lead. I thought that come Wednesday or Thursday of this week Hillary would start with a 3 a.m. ad, or the like, and some 527 would start running a Jeremiah Wright ad and Hillary would win going away by double digits, similar to the Ohio situation.
But last week I saw the SUSA poll showing Hillary up by 18 pts. I thought that must be an outlier, until today when I saw the ARG poll giving Hillary a 20 Point lead. Then I thought, Maybe she doesn’t need to go negative. She could just run ads accentuating whatever it is that small town white people tell pollsters they prefer about her over Obama. Then just allow the media to remind the voters of the elitist comments Obama made in a bath house in San Francisco while receiving a pedicure from Tony Lane. That should be good for 15 points.
Obama can’t just sit back and take that. Especially after he out spent Hillary 3 to 1 in the state. If he loses Pennsylvania by 20 points, the narrative changes. He is no longer inevitable. Hillary’s argument about winning the right voters and the right states starts to gain significant credibility. It leaves him terribly situated for Indiana and opens the possibility of Hillary winning North Carolina. There are 5 undeclared Indiana Congressmen in Indiana, How many of then are going to endorse Obama if Hillary wins the State by 15%?
Obama will go negative to forestall this possibility. I don’t know what the content of the negativity will be (maybe, “If you don’t know that you don’t sip out of a shot glass, you’ll destroy our relations with our new eastern European allies, and therefore destroy NATO.”), but I bet that no later than Thursday night Obama goes Negative (comparative if you prefer) in a big way.
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another poll shows her up by only 3 today, ARG isnt even added into the avg at RCP it never has, there must be a reason for that since its the only one they do that for. Obama will not go negative like Hillary he will continue to say the truth though. He just needs to keep doing what he did here, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NIxmi3e2Vmo
Obama wont be swiftboated.
April 14, 2008 12:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
ARG has an incredibly bad track record. They're near the bottom of the poll error tracking - wrong by an average of something like 18 points.
April 14, 2008 1:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Also new poll came out for PA for McCain vs Hillary and McCain vs Obama, +11 Clinton, + 7 Obama. Obama will win the nomination then he will crush McCain, its going to be a very blue year. Hell the last NC poll shows him tied with McCain here, with turn out i really do think NC will be blue. For example my grandparents who live here for years apon years and have always voted republican, just dont want to vote for McCain.
April 14, 2008 12:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Question: Will Obama go negative?
Answer: Obama is negative.
Next question?
April 14, 2008 1:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hope he goes negative, but I doubt he will. (Very frustrating...)
How about an ad with Hillary cackling next to the Credit Card industry big whigs and lots of bills flashing across the screen?
April 14, 2008 1:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama has no need to go negative, and it would go against his entire platfrom if he did. He's stuck to his game plan throughout, and he is ahead in every leading indicator: states won, popular vote, and pledged delegates. The MSM thrives on blood and mud, and will continue to amplify anything that creates controversy. Hillary is desperately trying to stay in this, and it shows. Obama had another great performace in the forum last night, and received another big endorsement in PA today from the Rooney family. My recommendation is that you not place too much emphasis on any one poll. Pollster.com averages all of them into one chart that reflects a greater sense of where things stand.
April 14, 2008 1:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
If nothing else, note the trend lines in the latest pollster.com average of all of the PA polls:
http://www.pollster.com/08PAPresDems.php
April 14, 2008 1:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
My 2 cents:
If Obama goes negative, it will have to be a pretty deft maneuver. While he is an underdog in PA, he is the front runner in the national primary contest. It's always harder for the front runner to look good going negative. The second problem is that it is not his brand. He's branding himself as "CHANGE" and not politics as usual (Oh, and I'm buying!). Negative ads are most definitely politics as usual. A similar problem is that he has been marketing himself as the candidate of maturity and substance, so that cuts off petty, negative attacks.
Now, I'm not saying he won't do it, but if he's going to, he had better wait for just the right opening and it had better be a substantive issue. Otherwise, he may do more harm than good in the long haul.
April 14, 2008 1:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Watch the video of the last few days. He isn't going negative, but he is going tough.
There's clear anger. It's justified anger, under control, focused on issues. There are fewer smiles.
It's a good shift, what you'd expect from a coherent person confronting the current situation.
It's also a good moment for that approach. I think it shows a toughness that will be respected by the Pennsylvania voters he needs.
It's worlds better than Dukakis in the tank or Kerry in hunting gear. It isn't a costume or a symbol, but the way he's doing regular campaigning.
It shows that he can react with steel when steel is the right reaction.
April 14, 2008 2:10 PM | Reply | Permalink