As with Ohio, the results in Indiana are narrowing. Hillary Clinton now leads by just under 1.1% -- down from 1.4% on election night. It won't make a difference for the nomination battle, but it does strengthen the argument that were it not for McCain supporters, Hillary Clinton would not have won Indiana.

Let me run through numbers for you based on the new vote totals.

1. Hillary Clinton has 644,594 votes and Barack Obama has 630,599 votes
2. About 83,500 McCain supporters voted for Clinton
   
   • According to the exit poll, if Clinton were to win the nomination, 16% of primary voters would vote for McCain, 41% of whom voted for Clinton in the primary. As a result, 6.6% (16% * 41%) of Indiana primary voters voted for Clinton but plan to vote for McCain in the fall even if she wins the nomination
   • 6.6% of Indiana primary voters is 83,563. (13% of Clinton's total vote.)
3. About 27,500 McCain supporters voted for Obama
   • Also according to the exit poll, if Obama were to win the nomination, 18% of primary voters would vote for McCain, 12% of whom voted for Obama in the primary. As a result, 2.2% (18% * 12%) of Indiana primary voters voted for Obama but plan to vote for McCain in the fall even if he wins the nomination.
   • 2.2% of Indiana primary voters is 27,544. (4.4% of Obama's total vote.)
4. After factoring out the McCain supporters who voted for each candidate:
   • Clinton received 560,941 votes from sincere supporters (48.2% of the vote)
   • Obama received 603,055 votes from sincere supporters (51.8% of the vote)
5. Therefore, among voters who are not committed McCain supporters, Barack Obama won a 3.6 point victory, a swing of nearly 5 points from the current vote tally.

Keep in mind I'm not taking a position on why these McCain supporters voted for Clinton. It doesn't matter to me whether it was the Limbaugh Effect or whether they were honestly expressing their choice for second-place. What matters is they don't intend to vote for either Obama or Clinton in November, and I think any fair analysis of Indiana must factor these voters out of the equation.

As a postcript, what about North Carolina? Using the same method as above, 16% of Clinton voters in North Carolina were actually McCain supporters, compared with 3% of Obama supporters. Factoring out the McCain meddlers for both both candidates, overall Obama would have won 61%-39%, a 22-point win instead of 57%-42%, a 15-point win.

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So how might these voters have impacted the demographics of the exit polls?

Without the cross-tabs, we can't be sure, but it's reasonable to estimate that that nearly all of these pro-McCain voters were white. After all, in 2004, 99% of Bush's support in Indiana was white. Assuming they are all white, then:

• 83,653 white Clinton voters were actually McCain backers
• 27,544 white Obama voters were actually McCain backers

Also from the exit poll, we know that:

• 596,790 Clinton voters were white (93% of her total)
   
• 397,860 Obama voters were white (63% of his total)

By subtracting the McCain backers from each candidate we learn that:

• 513,138 white Clinton voters were sincere
• 370,316 white Obama voters were sincere

Thus, excluding McCain meddlers, Clinton won among white voters 58% to 42%. That 16-point margin is significant, but it's also 4 points smaller than her 20-point 60%-40% lead when McCain meddlers are included.

Also, the 16-point margin is almost half that of the 30-point margin in Ohio, suggesting that the whole narrative about Obama losing support among whites is completely false. In fact, Obama is making significant progress.

The same pattern holds true in North Carolina. Including McCain meddlers, Clinton won by 24 points among white voters, 61%-37%. After excluding McCain meddlers, she still leads, but her margin shrinks to 18 points, 58%-40% -- also much closer than in Ohio.

Of course, since these numbers don't take gender into account -- Clinton's lead among white voters is attributable to white women -- it's questionable how meaningful they are. But given the Clinton campaign's obsession with Clinton's seemingly magical ability to win among white voters, it's useful to know what the real numbers are. And as these numbers show, the gap is closer than most people think -- and it seems to be closing as the campaign goes on.

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