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Expectations for Tuesday?
What are your expectations for Tuesday?
Today, Joe Andrews said that Obama would win "both states."
A few days ago, Obama said that Indiana would be a "tie-breaker."
Does anyone think he can pull it off and, if so, what does that mean for the candidates?
I personally feel a little momentum for Obama in both NC and IN. The gas-tax debate seems to be turning in Obama's favor and the local media has focused on its controversy. Obama has gotten over Wright for the most part, and for the few people who still questioned his motives in denouncing him last week, Obama clearly answered doubts on Meet the Press. Obama has obviously invested a lot in Indiana and his closing ad is expensive at 2 mins long, but very efective. Finally, demographics obviously favor him in NC and pose a favorable oppurtunity in IN. IN's demographics seem much more like Wisconsins. There are certainly a lot of blue-collar folks, but they seem educated and bit racist for the most part.
I won't make a numerical prediction just yet, but I do believe that with this late momentum, Obama will win NC decisivly and will upset Hillary in IN.
Hillary, pressured by superdelegates and media, will be forced to drop out later in the week.
Thoughts?
Today, Joe Andrews said that Obama would win "both states."
A few days ago, Obama said that Indiana would be a "tie-breaker."
Does anyone think he can pull it off and, if so, what does that mean for the candidates?
I personally feel a little momentum for Obama in both NC and IN. The gas-tax debate seems to be turning in Obama's favor and the local media has focused on its controversy. Obama has gotten over Wright for the most part, and for the few people who still questioned his motives in denouncing him last week, Obama clearly answered doubts on Meet the Press. Obama has obviously invested a lot in Indiana and his closing ad is expensive at 2 mins long, but very efective. Finally, demographics obviously favor him in NC and pose a favorable oppurtunity in IN. IN's demographics seem much more like Wisconsins. There are certainly a lot of blue-collar folks, but they seem educated and bit racist for the most part.
I won't make a numerical prediction just yet, but I do believe that with this late momentum, Obama will win NC decisivly and will upset Hillary in IN.
Hillary, pressured by superdelegates and media, will be forced to drop out later in the week.
Thoughts?
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His famous spreadsheet already predicted he will win both. Joe Andrew just reminded us.
I think for Clinton "single digit would be a victory" in NC, like PA in reversal. She won't win NC.
May 4, 2008 12:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Let the expressions of magical thinking begin! :-)
May 4, 2008 12:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
I expect Rev. Wright to hold a presser tomorrow to discuss what Obama said about him with Russert today.
May 4, 2008 12:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
North Carolina will be a 9-point win for Obama 54 to 45.
Indiana will be close, probably a 51-49 split. Hillary has been consistently ahead in the polls there since January, but never by that much. It's more likely that she'll get the close victory.
Then we will have to suffer through Hillary winning Kentucky and West Virgina, followed by Obama winning Oregon, Hillary taking Puerto Rico, and Obama winning Montana and South Dakota.
At that point, Obama will still be ahead by the same margin of pledged delegates he has now, and the Supers will step in and either annoint him as the rightful nominee, or they will cause a civil war and give it to Hillary.
May 4, 2008 1:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Personally, I think they'll most likely split the difference; Obama will carry NC by single digits and Hillary will take IN by a couple of points.
May 4, 2008 1:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
In most cases, the polls have shown Hillary with a lower percentage than she ends up getting, right? Whatever the reason, she outperforms the most recent polls when the votes come in. Except in a few states, specifically the ones that share similarities with NC (Virginia and South Carolina) and IN (Wisconsin). Obama outperformed the polls or shot up at the last minute in those. I'm looking for a repeat of that and a double win for Obama.
May 4, 2008 1:21 PM | Reply | Permalink