« Great Hurricane Katrina Ad Tieing McCain to Bush. | Kinkistyle's Blog | A Hollywood Ending: Offer the Unity Ticket NOW. »

If McCain picks a woman V.P. and Obama doesn't


I just wanted to kick around the idea that McCain might choose a woman to run as his VP if Obama ends up not picking Hillary Clinton or another female VP.

It would probably be the politically shrewd move to make.  I am not implying that all female voters vote as a block based on gender, but lets face it, there are some women Democrats out there who have been disillusioned by the primaries and might just just cross-over if given a carrot like the first female Veep.

In addition, if McCain does manage to get elected with a women as VP, the GOP might just have a winning advantage in the 2012 election since the frontrunner for the Dem's at this point in time would be Hillary Clinton, and an incumbent VP would not only take the the "gender" issue from Clinton, she would also trump Clinton's "experience" and "ready on day one" since a sitting V.P. would have more executive credentials than a Senator would. 

What does everyone else think?

62 Comments

| Leave a comment

If McCain picks a woman, then he would have too also. Seriously some feminists are starting to make me angry. I understand that they want a woman as president, I get that. But Hillary Clinton is not the right woman for the job. That is, in my opinion.

Maybe McCain will decide to choose a woman VP, but then be stupid enough to pick Condi Rice. That would just scream that he's nothing but a continuation of Bush's failed policies. The fact that she's black would nullify a lot of the racist part of the "middle-class white voter" problem for Obama, while at the same time she polls poorly among blacks so it's not clear that she's hurt Obama in that way. She describes herself as pro-choice, and McCain has enough problems holding onto the wingnut vote as it is.

user-pic

Exactly. Not to put too fine a point on it, but if McCain picks a woman, he eats into the misogynistic base of the GOP. If he picks a minority candidate, he eats into the racist base. The GOP is going to be depending on this part of their base more now than ever.

user-pic

I think McCain will pick Huckabee, Hillary has shown that Obama's Achilles heel is with the white working class, Huckabee is populist and a great campaigner. He also has shown that he can do a lot with practically no money and the Republicans are at a disadvantage there this year.

Condi Rice would be a terrible pick, she is Bush's office wife, and wouldn't draw a single black vote against Obama.

user-pic

Do you think Huckabee's "joke" about someone pointing a gun at Obama would disqualify him from the VP slot? I found it deeply disturbing, but Republicans might not have the same view. What about Huckabee's rejection of evolution?

I thought about that too. The media seemed to have quashed it pretty quickly, although if you Google News search "Mike Huckabee" they have it quoted as his comment of the day :D

I think McCain might pick Mitt Romney or possibly the Democratic traitor Joe Lieberman.

To the OP, Barack Obama will pick Kathleen Sebelius as his vice president.
- - It will ease the grief of those older white-women voters that Hillary has been holding on to.

It doesn't really matter who Obama gets as his vice president, but it does matter who Hillary would have picked for hers if she would get the nomination.

I think you've been out of the country too long, David. You may be right about Huckabee, but you're wrong if you think Rice wouldn't also energize the base. She would be a real threat to Obama, because she is completely assimilated and he's not. How she polls with black voters is irrelevant. They are not going to vote for McCain no matter who his VP is. So what if she's tied to Bush and Iraq? McCain will win or lose on that one on his own. He's not going to change his position on Iraq. My thought is that if Obama gets the nomination and believes Rice will be on the Republican ticket he'll crawl to get Clinton to run with him. What other Democrat can get on the stage with Rice?

Good point, well made.

user-pic

But Billy, who in the base does Condi appeal to?

She played piano and sang at the oval office prayer meetings, and they don't name super tankers after you unless, in their opinion, you've earned it. I think I've said this before. None of we old people have aged all that well, but if you find some film of her during the George HW Bush administration, you see a better Rice. If she can dig down and bring that one into a campaign, she could turn some heads.

But Billy, who in the base does Condi appeal to?

Uber-hawks who still think Bush has done no wrong in the middle east (because Condi is so closely tied to that whole mess), and who are willing to support a pro-choice candidate.

Poke around any of the wingnut sites and you'll get a sense of how deeply divided the wingnuts are over the idea of Condi for veep. You'll find some who praise her for being tough with tyrants, but then also this sort of thing:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1999638/posts
and also those who think she hasn't been tough enough, or that she's not supportive enough of Israel, etc.

How bad a choice would she be? Rummy would do less damage to McCain's campaign! Either one would be an explicit endorsement of the worst aspects of Bush's Middle Eastern foreign policy. That would appeal to a small segment of the GOP base at this point, but it's a segment that McCain already has in his pocket!

Either one would hurt McCain with the part of the GOP base that thinks Bush did a poor job in the middle east, both those who think the problem is that Bush didn't start enough wars (but who enthusiastically support the Iraq war), and those who think Bush made a huge blunder in starting the Iraq war and/or think he handled the war/occupation incompetently.

But on top of that, Rice negates whatever advantage racism and sexism within the GOP would give him, and on top of that she's pro-choice which automatically loses some votes from the GOP base, and on top of that would be the rumors about her social life, which would also hurt her among the GOP base.

We can only hope that McCain is stupid enough to pick Rice.

When do candidates generally announce their choice for VP? You can't wait until the convention can you? It would give people enough time to get to know the vp. Which is why on the basis of name recognition alone, I'd support an Obama-Clinton ticket.

user-pic

I think the official announcement actually is made at convention, although ideas are usually floated prior to that to give them an idea of how the public would react.

It would be a shrewd move by McCain, however I don't think he'd personally want it as much as it would be pushed on him by the party. However given McCain's age concerns his VP will be under much more scrutiny for the CIC test.

I still say it's going to be Pawlenty out of Minnesota.

user-pic

I'm holding out for Stephen Colbert.

If Hillary's supporters don't care that the Supreme Court will be stacked with neocon appointees, and that Roe v. Wade will be overturned in the summer of '09, then by all means, they should vote out of spite and vindictiveness and keep the Bush/Cheney regime in the White House for four more years.

...they should vote out of spite and vindictiveness and keep the Bush/Cheney regime in the White House for four more years.

Thsat's exactly what the Obama supporters were saying they would do early on in the campaign. Why wouldn't the other side return the favor?

Peevish Clinton supporters have always outnumbered such Obama supporters in the polls. The basis for vindictiveness among Clinton supporters has never made sense to me.

Obama has nothing to Clinton except to make a more convincing case to the voters. How the hell does that move Clinton supporters to get revenge by voting against their own political interests in the fall?

Clinton supporters who feel this way only confirm the ugly impression that you believe in the supreme entitlement of your candidate. As if we have a royal family succession here. Any obstacle to that entitlement, no matter how personally non-offensive, is to be punished by her subjects. Weird!

I went through the list of prominent republican women and came up with this short list of candidates. I removed anyone north of 65 and anyone who had some significant disqualification or is already running for office in 2008.

Possible female candidates:

Linda Lingle (gov Hawaii)
- pro executive experience, jewish
- con twice divorced, single, from Hawaii

Jodi Rell (gov Conneticut)
- pro executive experience from a state that is takable

Marsha Blackburn (Tennessee)
- easy on the eyes, well regarded

Shelley Moore Capito (West Virginia)
-con too liberal?

Christine Todd Whitman (former EPA, New Jersey Governor)
-con Bush
-pro name recognition, executive experience

Thelma Drake (Virginia)

Candice Miller (Michigan)
- pro her state is takable

Marilyn Musgrave (Colorado)
- pro strongly conservative

user-pic

Just to add a con and pro of my own to your good list:
Christine Todd Whitman (former EPA, New Jersey Governor)
-con Bush
-pro name recognition, executive experience
-con name recognition—will energize the environmental vote

Themla Drake (Virginia)
-pro might help keep Virginia in the Republican column

I know a lot of progressives get their blood boiling at the name Condi Rice, but it's Christine Todd Whitman that does it for me.

Whitman does it for you in a good or bad way? I think she would be excellent.

user-pic

A very, very bad way. Correct me if I'm wrong, but she was the head of the EPA during the enactment of the so-called "Clear Skies" initiative and the so-called "Healthy Forests" initiative. I think she might have also still been there during the convenient redefinition of "navigable waterways" as it applies to the Clean Water Act. I know that a lot of this was Bush-driven, but she was the one at the EPA during this time so I hold her at least partly responsible.

user-pic

I should point out that the Sierra Club was more generous than I:

"Under the circumstances, Christie Whitman did the best she could at the EPA, but the Bush administration simply wouldn't allow her to do the job," Pope said. As an example, he cited what he described as a broken campaign pledge by Bush to curb carbon dioxide emissions.

She quit in the middle of her first term. That's a huge statement right there.

When the boss stacks the deck against you that much, it's tough to make progress. Remember, she has to maneuver not to embarrass her boss too much also, for her own future. I'm guess she just got fed up from fighting the system after 2.5 years.

You might want to soften your position. From "very, very bad" to just "bad" for example.

user-pic

You're probably right. I'm guilty of using guilt-by-association.

I agree with the Sierra Club's assessment. I've heard some interviews--NPR, I think--where she's made it clear that she was forced to hew the line. I was working in air quality regulation at the time and when you watched her closely you could see she didn't feel good about it. She's a sharpie, and would be a good choice for McCain.

I was actually thinking Olympia Snowe was an interesting pick because she is massively popular in her own state and is moderate, but because she is so moderate, conservatives find her to be one step away from being a Dem. On the other hand, she is exactly the type of person who could pick up the "working white blue-collar woman"

Yes she should be on the list as well, although if I was her I wouldn't giveup running for reelection to run on McCain's ticket.

I'm sure I missed others.

late adds,
Condi Rice (NSC, state dep.)
- con Bush's Office wife

Carly Fiorina (HP exec)
- pro executive experience
- con no political experience

my mistake Susan Collins is running for reelection not Olympia Snowe.

Add Susan Collins to the list as well, I guess, of possibles but not likely.

another late add

Sarah Palin (gov Alaska)

You've just articulated another reason to put Hillary on the ticket now. No matter how much Obama supporters hate her, they would still vote for Obama. It would bring back many Hillary voters whom we might otherwise lose. Putting a different woman on the Democratic ticket would surely tick off as many women as it attracts, since it would say to Hillary supporters, "You were right. We need a woman. Just not the one you passionately support." Remember, they never wanted to see Hillary as VP in the first place, so putting another woman in the VP slot isn't exactly going to be the thrill of a lifetime for them.

But thank you for realizing that women do not automatically support a woman simply because she is a woman. That would be like saying 90% of blacks support Obama simply because he is black.

user-pic
No matter how much Obama supporters hate her, they would still vote for Obama.

That's no doubt true for the vast majority of Democratic Obama supporters. However, independent (and Republican) Obama supporters might not be quite as forgiving. Despite what it might seem like in the blogosphere, not all Obama supporters are equally committed to seeing this through.

It would bring back many Hillary voters whom we might otherwise lose.

It would definitely bring back many, but hopefully most of those will come back regardless, once feelings have cooled down some. (This would go the other way, as well, if Clinton had won the nomination.)

Putting a different woman on the Democratic ticket would surely tick off as many women as it attracts…

It's a well-reasoned argument, but unless this has been polled, I'm guessing this is just from your gut. I'm not saying it's wrong, just that I don't know that it's necessarily true.

By the way, to others, I'd like to point out that Otto has already made comments suggesting that he will support Obama in November if the choice is between Obama and McCain. (I'm not trying to put words into your mouth here, Otto, so correct me if I'm wrong, but I do recall you saying something like this on another page.) Even if and when Otto accepts that Obama is our nominee and that it's time to rally behind him, that doesn't mean that he has to ever stop believing that Hillary would've been an even better candidate.

Note also that there's a subgroup of socially conservative African-Americans who usually do vote for the Democrats. But if there is a perception that backroom dealing "stole" the nomination from Obama, that group might be more open to a McCain candidacy, especially if he chose an African-American VP. Now the pickings on that front are slimmer in the GOP than among women, but if, say, Colin Powell could be convinced to run as McCain's VP (and, given his reputation as being a "good soldier", he might agree if asked), then I could see McCain polling in the 30s among African-Americans, or over three times the GOP's recent averages. That would make things harder for Hillary.

It would bring back many Hillary voters whom we might otherwise lose.

As Ben said, it would bring back many, but a lot of those would eventually vote for Obama anyway. But that's not really "bringing them back" in a way that helps the vote totals.

Your argument, as with most of the arguments for Hillary getting the VP slot, isn't based on arguing that she's the best candidate. It's based on some sense of it being "owed" to her whether she is the one who would best help Obama beat McCain or not.

She brings a lot of negatives with her, and it's not clear that the number of Hillary voters who would ONLY support Obama if he has Hillary as a running mate, and would go to McCain or not vote if he picks anyone else, would come close at all to outweighing the negatives.

I have two questions for people who want Hillary as the VP. First, can we agree that Obama should choose, and should be entirely free to choose, the veep he believes will best help him win against McCain, whether that's Hillary or not?

And second, what in the world do you picture Hillary saying to minimize the damage from McCain running ads with video of Obama's own running mate saying that McCain is qualified to be commander in chief, and Obama isn't, that Obama just has that one speech he gave in 2002, etc? I don't think any Democratic candidate has ever endorsed the GOP opponent over a Democratic colleague before, at least not among serious presidential candidates, so this situation is unprecedented. What's she going to say? That he wasn't ready back then, but a couple more months on the campaign trail giving more speeches put him over the threshold?

If Obama picks Sentor Clinton as his running mate I will still vote for him but IF he asked ME I would have to say don't do it. I think a lot of republicans would crawl out of their graves to vote AGAINST a Clinton. I would also be very concerned about what happens with ex-president Bill Clinton. What does he do? I may be an alarmist but Bill has opened my eyes to his ability to make trouble.
Rabbit is right on it about the things Sentor Clinton has said about Obama being used against them - that's would be hard to get around.

Marsha Blackburn, House of Reps, Tn

con: dumber than a batch of fermented mung bean paste. Even Tweety at his most obsequeous slaps her around intellectually, she's just that dumb.

One of the crazy things about this election year is the possibilities are... well, crazy!

I think it's plausible for McCain to pick Lieberman as VP. It would certainly shake things up, especially if the Dems take both houses in Congress as expected.

In a similar vein party-bending manner, I think that Christine Todd Whitman (who is mentioned above) would also make a possible running mate for Obama. I'm a big fan of her -- she really tried to run the EPA honestly and quit when the administration wouldn't let her. I think McCain should consider strongly choosing her, what's not to like? Executive experience, moderate, obviously against Bush, national experience.

Fascinating to suggest Whitman as a running mate for Obama. I'd heard speculation that she'd be a good choice for McCain, especially if he wants to distance himself from Bush, given that Whitman quit the Bush administration.
But she's taken some hits over publicly asserting the air quality was fine in NYC immediately after 9/11.

Her daughter, Kate Whitman, is running for congress now in my district in a crowded GOP primary, and is positioning herself well to the right of her mother. So I doubt Whitman would actually happen.

The court recently came out and ruled the elder Whitman blameless on the 9/11 situation. Given the contentious way she left the Bush Administration, I'll give her the benefit of the doubt as well. And most people outside of NYC aren't even aware of the issue.

Bummer about her kid... I guess that rules out the elder as a centrist politician.

...Christine Todd Whitman...

For Obama's VP???? OMG.

It really is difficult to comprehend the delusion in the Obama camp. Unbelievable.

user-pic

Okay, I understand. Clearthinker = Obama camp

Ben Hocking is clearly not a Whitman fan, so I guess he's not in the Obama camp. So go ahead Ben, say whatever crazy thoughts are on your mind!

user-pic

I guess Libby Dole is too ancient?

Who? ;-)

For what it's worth: cqpolitics held a poll of its own to choose mccain's vp. There were 4 rounds of voting and included republican women in the original lineup: palin AK, Hutchinson TX, and Rice (Seems like there was at least one other, but can't remember who it was). Palin got the farthest, but Huckabee won the final round.

I think much depends on the woman whom McCain might choose. He has problems with his base - neither the evangelicals nor the National Review economic conservatives are particularly fond of him, although they'll probably fall in line. But recall the ruckus they made over Harriet Miers - something similar may happen from some corners on the right if Whitman, who is pro-choice, is the pick. So I strongly doubt McCain would go there.

It would be an interesting gambit, similar to suggestions that McCain might want to tap an African-American if Hillary is the nominee, to try to tap into discontent among the losing candidate's supporters. While there are certainly differences between Obama and Clinton, they pale in comparison to the ones between either and McCain. So from a rationalist perspective, Democrats should rally around the nominee, whoever it is.

That said, maybe I'm too dense, but if anything, it seems to me that Obama has a stronger claim to feel disrespected by Clinton than the opposite: Clinton was floating the idea that Obama should be her running mate when Obama was leading the race. Clinton has publicly states that McCain passed the "Commander in chief" threshold, while pointedly refusing to say that Obama had.

In my opinion, Clinton simply had the misfortune to run against a stronger candidate. In most years, she would have run away with the Democratic nomination. This year, however, she is being beaten by an even more effective candidate and campaign.

I think McCain would pick a woman VP when hell freezes over. The GOP is trying to remake its image, but it won't go that far. My guess is Huckabee. He brings with him all those evangelicals that McCain can't seem to excite.

user-pic

Jesus could come back with his mom in the backseat and McCain could pick either one, get endorsed by the almighty himself with Mohammed, Vishnu, Budda and Zeus chiming in and he'd still lose. Next question.

lol!

I'm with you. I know we need to take this seriously, but the deer-in-the-headlights McCain we've seen is so flawed that even this depressed cynic can't imagine him getting elected.

Though I thought the same thing of Bush. Shows what I know.

user-pic

Kinkistyle, you say:

"but lets face it, there are some women Democrats out there who have been disillusioned by the primaries and might just just cross-over if given a carrot like the first female Veep."

I have to disagree with you here. I truly believe that no Democrat woman, ideologically Democrat, can vote for McCain. (Maybe abstain...)

I have stated in a few occasions that I could never vote for Hillary. As turned off by Hillary as I have been during these Primaries, I realize clearly now that if push came to shove, I would certainly, absolutely, vote for her.

Not because I would find Hillary tremendously engaging all of a sudden. It has much more to do with reality kicking in. Once you let the dream of getting-your-best-choice die, all you are left with is the factual choices available in November.

No matter how big my wish for vengeance towards Hillary may be, my wish for progress is bigger, way bigger!

I may not believe that real change will come from Hillary, but I am 100% sure that with McCain we are going backwards.

(PS: I was about to write a post releasing this confession of mine; but your words prompted me to it on the spot.)

Nice post. Please forward to Geraldine Ferraro.

Remember that Christie Whitman lost a lot of clout when a photograph of her smiling while frisking an African American man in Camden was revealed in 2000. This was a publicity stunt that had a ruinous effect on her.

http://www.commondreams.org/headlines/071100-02.htm

If she's part of anybody's ticket, that photograph will play a major role in the campaign.

Of course, the NJ governors since her have had their own scandals!!!!

user-pic
on the basis of name recognition alone, I'd support an Obama-Clinton ticket.
But in the case of Clinton, name recognition would be a bad thing, IMO.

Christine Todd Whitman his highly-disliked by the Right Wing of the party; the term RINO is thrown her way quite a bit. I remember hearing a couple of the wackos on AM radio given her a hard time when her book came out a few years ago.

Sorry, I think the choice of Condi is laughable. Really. She is so tied up with Bush, that she will never pull in any of the Independents he desperately needs. McCain can say he wants us to remain in Iraq and win by 2013...well he is trying to fix the mess created by Condi. Any debate can focus on the large millstone around her neck that is the search for WMDs, and the many things that Condi said in front of Congress that turned out 110% wrong.

Check out the Real John McCain. Video of some of his contradictions.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GEtZlR3zp4c

A woman VP on a ticket that would still pick SC justices that overturn Roe and gut anti-discrimination legislation.

I don't think so.


The key is not that Condi appeals to any specific part of the GOP base. She just allows a lot fo Republicans to say "See, I'm not racist, I just voted for Condi." Just like the McCain greenwashing efforts on catatrosphic climate change and campaign finances allow Republicans to claim that they care about something while doing absolutely nothing about it.

Still, I think it would be a GOP disaster for them to go with McCain/Rice. She does not lie well, has not been "vetted," and does not seem to be able to campaign for her issues, much less hold her own in a debate setting. Very quickly people would see that she is in over her head.

It is the Democrats who go first this year, so Obama will have his pick out on the table long before McCain will. I think Obama's pick should be independent of any consideration of who McCain picks.

But McCain will have to choose more quickly. He can't wait until the convention because of age issues, ie. his pick really needs to be able to be president "from day one", unlike the younger Obama.

"I think McCain would pick a woman VP when hell freezes over. The GOP is trying to remake its image, but it won't go that far. My guess is Huckabee. He brings with him all those evangelicals that McCain can't seem to excite."

That's right. They'd have problems choosing a woman because they are prejudiced. Both the GOP and their voters. That's why they chose the GOP, because that is what they represent.

Also McCain wants to attack Obama as unworthy of CinC status, but a woman on his ticket would have trouble fitting that bill according to the likelihood she's not a 70 year old former POW male, the GOP's current definition of possible CinC.


There's way too much triangulation in this thread. Yes, a VP is one way to shore up support in your weak areas, but don't forget the VP has to take over the presidency if something happens to you. At the end of the day you can't choose a VP that wouldn't fully represent your views.

I think picks like Whitman for Obama and Huckabee for McCain are not fitting at all in that regard.

user-pic

Christie Whitman has as much clout in the Republican party as Lincoln Chaffee though she's not nearly as liberal. She spent her days at the EPA as a humiliated figurehead who (as someone else pointed out upthread) shilled for Clear Skies and various other shams. She was also hammered in the NY media for claiming the air was safe in lower Manhattan in the months after 9/11 when in fact the EPA's own studies proved otherwise. After a few years of that hypocrisy she jumped at the chance to bail when Rove made it clear that any cabinet officers who didn't intend to stay thru the second term ought to leave sooner than later.

Here's a typical example of her leadership. Back when she was governor of NJ she took the state tobacco settlement money and used it to put up smarmy billboards that showed her playing the rumor game of telephone with well scrubbed 12 year olds and a caption along the lines of "kewl kids don't smoke".

While other states used the money to augment healthcare for lung ailments or actual cessation programs to help their citizens quit Whitman used it for her own personal PR. She wouldn't even carry NJ for McCain and would attract ugly media in Philly and NYC, especially NYC.

user-pic

"See, I'm not racist, I just voted for Condi."

Just because Condi is a black woman doesn't make her any less radioactive. AS NSA she has a lot to answer for on 9/11 "no one could have guessed terrorists would hijack use airplanes and crash them into buildings" comes to mind. She's also on the hook for a big chunk of the corruption in Iraq not to mention the overall failure of Bush's foreign policy. I wonder if that huge oil tanker still has her name on the back? That'd make a nice graphic in an oppo ad.

Republicans could say "See, I'm not racist, I just voted for Condi" but even they know could never say with a straight face "See I'm not idiot, I just voted for Condi".

McCain might as well bear hug Bush every day of the campaign if he nominates her. It'd have the affect.

Leave a comment

Kinkistyle

user-pic

Following:
Followers:

Posts
Comments & Recommends


Favorites

All Reader Posts
How to use myTPM

Advertise Liberally
Share
Close Social Web Email

"To" Email Address

Your Name

Your Email Address