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Josh dismisses the O'Reilly interview with Clinton but he's wrong


My husband is a republican (the old northeast variety) and doesn't get that they are no longer that party. Fiscal conservatives? Ha! No evidence as far as I am concerned.But the perception continues.  He seriously thinks that McCain is different than Bush and is some kind of independent. That is why I was surprised when he told me about watching  the O'Reilly interview and being extremely impressed. He told me that he thinks Hillary did herself a lot of good. He said that even when O'Reilly threw awful questions at her she calmly held her own and even managed to put him in place and show how wrong he was. He also drew the distinction about how she looked compared to how Obama looked when he was asked the same type of stupid question in the PA debate. There was no whining.  The difference was like night and day he said. I don't know that he would actually consider voting for Hillary instead of McCain but it sure opened up his mind to that possibility. 
That is why Hillary can win in November and Obama can't. Obama won't get those Reagan democrats (or most working class democrats) and we can't win without them. We saw this directly in Texas. Hillary won the general and Obama could come in and take it away only in the precinct conventions where it can be controlled by a few enthusiastic supporters. Obama then won the Wyoming caucuses, but out of 100,000 registered democrats only 8000 actually participated. All the new enthusiasm for registering and voting in these primaries is widely seen as enthusiasm for Obama. It is not. It is because for the first time these states actually count to pick the democratic presidential nominee. Am I dismissing the obvious enthusiasm that Obama generates? No. I am simply pointing out that it will not be enough in the general. 
If democrats want another John Kerry pick Obama. If they want to beat McCain, pick Hillary. It is that simple. 

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I'll agree that Hillary did well in that interview (with the oh-so-willing help of Fox News, IMNSHO), but your comparison of it to the debate debacle makes some mistakes. First, O'Reilly was clearly gushing over Clinton from the beginning. It's easy to be composed when the "attack" questions are attacking your opponent. Don't get me wrong, she handled it fairly well, giving off a good appearance that she'd rather not talk about Wright. It was very well orchestrated and came off well. Score one for Hillary.

That is why Hillary can win in November and Obama can't. Obama won't get those Reagan democrats (or most working class democrats) and we can't win without them.

For everyone like your father, there are two who feel the exact opposite. I know several Republicans who don't like McCain, but can't stand Hillary. These nominal Republicans will likely vote for Obama in the general. I have a friend who's a financial adviser, who has always voted Republican, but who has not only said he favors Obama but has also contributed to his campaign. This guy is an economics junkie, and it's his opinion that Obama is the person who's best for our country's economy—and he's told me that he's been telling his clients this as well.

Then there's my father. He's lukewarm towards McCain, but will almost definitely vote for him in the general, regardless of who the Democratic candidate is. However, my dad has told me that if Clinton is the Democratic nominee (or is even anywhere on the ticket), he'll go from being lukewarm towards McCain to donating to his campaign and going door-to-door to help him win the election. He hates Hillary that much. He can't tell me why, but he really can't stand her. (For one thing, he's told me that he thinks of her as this ultra-liberal. I told him that she's actually one of the more conservative Democrats, but he'll have none of that.)

Not this tired concern troll - the country is too racist to elect Obama - argument again. Do you really expect anyone to believe that your Republican husband has now seen the light with Hillary thanks to O'Reilly, and that he would now vote for Clinton over McCain? Your husband's absolutely inevitable GE vote against Hillary would count no more than his inevitable GE vote against Obama.

So, the issue isn't that more haters would vote AGAINST Obama over Hillary in the fall versus McCain - that number will essentially be the same for either Dem. The key dynamic is that there would be significant numbers of voters who would vote FOR Obama, but not for Hillary, in the GE.

I will only address the narrow question raised by the OP (see, with a little practice, I CAN get some of this blog lingo - Just HAD to get that in). I do not know whether or not this helps or hurts Sen. Clinton with respect to her immediate election prospects.

I DO think the O'Reilly interview was an ENORMOUS win-win for both Sen. Clinton and Democrats in general, in terms of the big picture. It crosses a divide that we need to keep persistently TRYING to cross. I won't repeat the specifics of the interview here (most of us saw it, anyway), but it seems to me virtually the consensus across the broad central political spectrum that the Senator "won", besting the Right's top TV boogy-man on his home ground.

I'm sure the right-wingers think so, because it seems to me they've spent most of the time since then using people like Dick Morris and Laura Ingraham to try to "explain" the outcome in terms more favorable to Mr. O'Reilly (translation: give hin an alibi).

I think this was a good moment for ALL Democrats, really. It showed how to take Democratic ideas into an arena like this and hold your own - and perhaps even get a little grudging respect for it from discriminating friend and foe alike.

I emphatically REJECT the notion promoted by Mr. Marshall and some other (mostly liberal) commentators and thinkers, that this sort of thing is somehow beneath the dignity of a truly progressive politician. O'Reilly represents a legitimate segment of public opinion. He has adherents and followers. They take these things seriously. They VOTE.

If we don't have the nerve to get in the ring with them and at least TRY to make our case, we leave ourselves forever open to the "out-of-touch", "elitism" charges that have de-railed so many promising Democratic candidates. The public will sort it out. They LIKE tough, fair fighters on ANY side. If we're not treated with decent sportsmanship in those encounters, most people will make an honest judgement about it. We win to to some degree just by trying, and we make some sort of a start toward HONESTLY "bringing people together". Beyond a certain point, you can't do that with speeches, policy papers, seminars, learned articles, and punditry. You need a lot more than the college-professor vote to win.

You do that by going straight at them and TALKING, even if you take some lumps.

Actually if Hillary's the nominee, the electoral map will be the same as it was in 2004, plus she loses Washington, Oregon, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, and the AA vote. With Obama, yes we'd probably lose Ohio, but we make up for it because you add the states Hillary loses plus all the new territory he opens up. He brings voters in which means that he'll benefit downticket Dems. Whereas, if Hillary were the nominee, downticket Dems would be in trouble because she excites turn out among Republicans. My semi-Republican parents both plan on voting for Obama in the general because they cannot stand the Clintons, their attitude is they have no intention of allowing the people that dishonored the WH in the 90s to ever get another chance to dishonor it again.

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Hillary will lose those states based on what? Most of those haven't been swing states for a while and Hillary won't lose them. The AA vote won't desert the Clintons because they have mostly had a hard time choosing between loyalty to Bill Clinton and voting for their color. And Hillary will win Ohio which already gives us the win. Plus she will actually win Arkansas. The same Repugs that are motivated to vote because of Clinton hatred are equally motivated by the idea that a black man might be president so that is a draw. What states is Obama going to bring. SC? any Southern state? Ha! Wyoming? Dream on. The states he won in the primary are for the most part not democratic leaning states and aren't going to be democratic in the near future. No matter what you may wish. I live in the south they ain't going back to the party that gave black people the vote.

While AA's will stay democratic hispanics are much less likely to remain with the party so states we usually take may be in clear danger. Obama is only the be all, end all to the converted. And I belive he has maxed out. Up against McCain (the best candidate the GOP could have chosen this time around ) he will lose. And he will lose for a variety of reasons, some to do with race and some to do with his inexperience.

Oh and the only people who have dishonored the White House are Ken Starr with his obsession with sex, and George Bush because he has condoned torture and used the 9/11 attacks to justify an invasion of an innocent country to settle a personal score.

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You don't understand what's been going on, do you? The Republicans haven't been attacking Hillary because she is doing their work for them. If she is successful in securing the nomination, you will be rendered speechless by the ferocity of the Republican attacks against her. The damage she is doing to Obama is nothing compared to the damage she has done to herself during this campaign. She has legitimized McCain by endorsing his credentials, she has outdone him in the violence of her calls to attack Iran, and she has proven herself his equal in pandering stupidity in calling for a gas tax moratorium. She has already fatally wounded herself. Let's hope the Party leaders find a way to drive her out of the race before she does any more damage to Obama.

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I'm afraid McCain is actually experienced and he doesn't need to be legitimized by Clinton. Obama does all his own damage and doesn't need Clintons help at all.(whine whine again. The only campaign using republican talking points against their fellow democrat is Obama. He constantly calls her a liar , suggests she is untrustworthy, and that she is willing to do anything to win, all ad hominum attacks that he is supposed to abhore.

And I happen to agree with Clinton on Iran. There is no way to stop Iran from getting a nuclear weapon if they want one (unlike all the pundits try to tell you). They have their own uranium and they have the expertise. Didn't we learn from India and Pakistan? There are then only two options -talk to them and try to convince them to stop on their own, because it is not in their interest, which Hillary has indicated in every thing she has said is what she intends to do. And the second thing is to make it very clear to them that IF they ever use such a weapon against anyone (in this case Israel) they are toast. A number of generals have made this point as well. Fear of the retaliation is the best and only legitimate deterent. If Obama thinks that that is off the table then he should not be president.

Reducing the gas prices by 18 cents a gallon may not impress economists but it sure will make an impression on the Americans that need it. Or are you and economists going to argue that adding 18 cents to the price of a gallon of gas makes no difference either? And since she is proposing to pay for it by telling the oil companies that they must make up the difference she is actually putting money in the pockets of people that need it and not affecting the highway fund at all. It isn't pandering it is actually doing something concrete as Obama sits by and does nothing.

"God bless the rich" - the rich don't mind paying taxes so much as getting no respect for it - good for Hillary to get out front on this. Sure, the interview was a gush-a-thon, but she managed to get across quite a lot to keep Republicans comfort level up. Sure there will be Republicans who will never vote for her, but it's both trying to make them more comfortable before the generals and less likely to sabotage once in office.

Also, Republicans know McCain is a very old man making less and less sense. Whoever he picks as VP will be presumed to be a likely President, and that starts Republican concern all over again.(As I noted elsewhere, I think Lindsey Graham would be his strongest choice except the small problem that he's likely gay).

There is one more point I want to address here. (It may not particularly fit with the "Fox" theme, but this is as good a place as any):

Democrats have to stop worrying all the time about what Republicans are going to do. When you frame your entire strategy upon a mindset of "dodging" attacks, or being afraid of "giving them (Republicans) ideas", you're half whipped before you start.

When was the last time you heard Karl Rove worry about something he OTHERWISE thought was a good idea, on the grounds that he was afraid of what "the Democrats" would say about it?

You either believe in your cause, or you don't. If you DO believe in it, you have no choice except to accept on faith that you can go out into the free-for-all marketplace of ideas, and convince a majority that the weight of the argument falls your way.

You're generalizing wildly based on your Reagan-Democratic husband's reaction.

Here's my anecdote: about three out of four of my conservative LDS officemates really, really don't trust Clinton, are very impressed by Obama, and favor him over McCain and McCain over Clinton. If you take Clinton out of the picture in the GE (that is, if Obama's nominated), conservative Dems will support the Dem, and many moderate Republicans will end up as Obama Republicans.

See? If you're going to base your political analysis on one man's response to an interview, I've completely refuted and overcome your anecdote with one of my own about states in which conservative Dems and Repubs could become Obama Democrats. But neither provides much basis for a projection in the GE.

Hillary's putting out more and more Reagan-Republican messages, which, if she keeps it up, will make her too much like McCain to make western moderates jump ship.

But for all that, I know no more than you about the outcome. It's all so far away, and current numbers are skewed by the fact that there's little campaigning against McCain right now.

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Hillary will lose those states based on what? Most of those haven't been swing states for a while and Hillary won't lose them. The AA vote won't desert the Clintons because they have mostly had a hard time choosing between loyalty to Bill Clinton and voting for their color. And Hillary will win Ohio which already gives us the win. Plus she will actually win Arkansas. The same Repugs that are motivated to vote because of Clinton hatred are equally motivated by the idea that a black man might be president so that is a draw. What states is Obama going to bring. SC? any Southern state? Ha! Wyoming? Dream on. The states he won in the primary are for the most part not democratic leaning states and aren't going to be democratic in the near future. No matter what you may wish. I live in the south they ain't going back to the party that gave black people the vote.

While AA's will stay democratic hispanics are much less likely to remain with the party so states we usually take may be in clear danger. Obama is only the be all, end all to the converted. And I belive he has maxed out. Up against McCain (the best candidate the GOP could have chosen this time around ) he will lose. And he will lose for a variety of reasons, some to do with race and some to do with his inexperience.

Oh and the only people who have dishonored the White House are Ken Starr with his obsession with sex, and George Bush because he has condoned torture and used the 9/11 attacks to justify an invasion of an innocent country to settle a personal score.

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