Obama wins Guam!
As I wrote about yesterday, Guam held its caucuses today. The current results have Obama with 1,738 votes and Clinton with 1,599. This might mean that Obama picks up a single net delegate if the delegates split 2.5:1.5 for him, or it might mean he picks up no net delegates. Regardless, the Hillary winning streak (HILLMENTUM™) of 1 is over.
Results are expected around 16:00 GMT, or about noon Eastern.
Results are expected around 16:00 GMT, or about noon Eastern.
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This is good news. I hope it is followed by more on Tuesday.
May 3, 2008 9:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
See billysumday's post below. I completely misread that article as those were the current delegate counts and not Guam's voting results. It does seem that he will win this, however.
May 3, 2008 10:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
As Guam goes . . . so goes the nation!
May 3, 2008 12:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is the beginning of the end for Obama.
May 3, 2008 2:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Indubitably.
May 3, 2008 9:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm curious, did any candidate ever even campaign there? I don't know even know where Guam is
May 3, 2008 9:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
Uninformed and uneducated... that makes you a typical Clinton supporter, no?
May 3, 2008 9:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
It depends on what you mean by "campaign there". Neither one physically traveled there, but they both campaigned there. Obama has a campaign office there, but Clinton does not. However, she's actually managed (last I read) to slightly out-do him on campaign contributions from Guam. However, the contributions on both sides are so small, that either candidate's contributions could've come from as few as 2 people (literally).
May 3, 2008 9:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
Campaign contributions from the Tan family? Aren't they in trouble for something or other? I remember hearing something about the Tan family and their sweatshops. Figures.
May 3, 2008 11:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
You don't know where Guam is? And you call yourself a political junkie...
As goes Guam, so goes the election. It's an old political saw.
Guam. The bellweather protectorate.
May 3, 2008 9:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, but watch Clinton come out and say that Guam is insignificant now. She'll probably make some claim that the Republicans will win it in the general (like they've done in every Presidential election since 1645), regardless of who the Democratic candidate is.
May 3, 2008 9:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
Any claim by Clinton that Guam is unimportant would be particularly bizarre given her recent comments about bringing Guam into the presidential election fold.
May 3, 2008 9:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
That was when she was pandering for their votes. Now that the vote has gone against her it will be 'screw 'em'.
May 3, 2008 2:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, Ben, for once Hillary would be right: I believe Guam gets to vote in the primary but not in the actual presidential campaign.
May 3, 2008 2:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tell that to Hillary when she bases her entire justification for superdelegates overthrowing the elected delegate count based on Puerto Rico. They have 88+ pledged delegates to the convention, and no say in the general election. It will be her final argument.
May 3, 2008 4:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
I would've thought the 1645 bit would've made it clear that was snark…
May 3, 2008 9:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
HAHAHA
May 3, 2008 1:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary held a q & a conference call I believe and both appeared on radio shows. (We lost and retook Guam from the Japanese in WWII).
May 3, 2008 9:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think there are only two states where neither candidate didn't campaign ;o)
May 3, 2008 10:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
Alaska, Hawaii, what about Utah, I don't remember them ever going there.
May 3, 2008 11:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm pretty sure he's referring to Florida and Michigan. :)
Also, campaigning doesn't necessarily imply physical presence.
May 3, 2008 11:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obama's sister campaigned in Hawaii for him
May 3, 2008 3:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Lalo,
Surprise!: even if you can't place Guam in a map, they still have delegates to the Convention!!
May 3, 2008 12:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am not sure if anyone campaigned in person. I read that Barack opened an office in Guam and was advertising, pushing his Hawaiian roots.
May 3, 2008 9:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary was advertising, too, and I think she even out-spent him on old-school advertising. My impression is that he (not surprisingly) dominated the Guam internet sites, however.
May 3, 2008 9:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
The current results have Obama with 1,738 votes and Clinton with 1,599.
That's just the current delegate count.
Check out this site for updates.
May 3, 2008 9:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
Times like this I really, really wish I could edit my blog entries. Since they were saying over 3,000 people would be voting, those numbers looked about right to me. Dang me and my faulty reading comprehension!
It'd be really bad if Clinton were actually winning, but from the site you linked:
So, hopefully the title is still right, at least.
May 3, 2008 10:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obama 53& Clinton 47% as of right now in Guam.
May 3, 2008 2:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama is +26.
http://www.pacificnewscenter.com/default.asp?sourceid=&smenu=161&twindow=Default&mad=No&sdetail=24091&wpage=1&skeyword=&sidate=&ccat=&ccatm=&restate=&restatus=&reoption=&retype=&repmin=&repmax=&rebed=&rebath=&subname=&pform=&sc=1718&hn=pacificnewscenter&he=.com
12:00 a.m. Guam – The results of three precincts are in, but the ballot counting at election central is still behind at this hour. After Maina, Ordot and Inarajan reported, Senator Barack Obama is leading Senator Hillary Clinton by 26 percentage points.
But the manual counting this year seems to be taxing officials. In fact, Herbie Perez, chairperson of the Democrat’s nominating committee, has stopped overseeing the process to form another group with her at the helm. She told the Pacific News Center previously that she expected tabulations to be complete by 11:30 p.m.
May 3, 2008 10:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
Weren't the expectations higher for him in Guam?
Can you believe we're talking about delegates in Guam? Wow.......
May 3, 2008 10:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, I blew it. Those numbers I gave had nothing to do with Guam. See billysumday's post above.
Sure, there aren't many delegates at stake here, but the most important result from Guam will be psychological, as it will end Hillary's long winning streak (of 1).
May 3, 2008 10:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
Record turnout in Guam! They can't count fast enough!
Sure, Maina went for Clinton. They were duped by her "betelnut tax holiday" proposal. But the real question remains: Who will take Hagåtña?
It's gonna be an all night Hagåtña watch...
May 3, 2008 10:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
Despite the well-tuned snark, it should be pointed out that this part is accurate:
May 3, 2008 10:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
Can't believe we're talking about Guam.
May 3, 2008 10:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hey, they're every bit as important as American Samoa! They both have a total of 9 delegate-votes with Guam's 4 pledged delegates (or 8 pledged hemi-delegates) and 5 unpledged delegates to American Samoa's 3 pledged delegates and 6 unpledged. I still can't believe American Samoa went to Clinton! What were they thinking?!?
May 3, 2008 10:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
But to be fair to American Samoa, they voted when everyone still thought that Hillary was the inevitable candidate. I'm telling you, the entire Primary calendar was set up for her to win.
May 3, 2008 11:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
Last time I looked, Guam has no electoral college votes. In fact, they don't even vote in US elections.
May 3, 2008 11:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
You are one smart cookie, bub.
May 3, 2008 11:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
OK, Hillary. We didn't think it would take long for you to change your tune about Guam. What say you about Puerto Rico?
May 3, 2008 11:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
Monkey see poo, monkey fling poo.
May 3, 2008 11:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
Looks like Obama may not, in fact, win Guam.
May 3, 2008 11:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
What makes you say that? The news I'm reading right now has him ahead by 6 points with 11 out of 19 precincts reporting. (6 points=88 votes, hah!)
Sure, it's possible he'll lose, but it seems like it's more likely he'll win at this point.
May 3, 2008 12:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
What are the exit polls showing. Why are they not releasing them. How hard could it have been to crunch the exit poll results from having interviewed the one critical person.
May 3, 2008 12:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, he may win. However, it's also possible that he may not win. I'm just saying, your post is a little premature. I sure do hope that your prediction is accurate, though.
May 3, 2008 12:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, no doubt it was premature. Hopefully it'll end up making me look prescient. :)
May 3, 2008 12:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm pretty sure Clinton supporters are thought of as those invading snakes that have taken over the island. They just want to kill them all off.
May 3, 2008 11:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
How much gum did he win?
Can I have a piece?
Meheheheh.
May 3, 2008 12:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
THIS IS EXCELLENT NEWS!! FOR HILLARY!!!
May 3, 2008 12:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tell it Brother I.
Meheheheh.
May 3, 2008 12:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Guam doesn't count. Senator Obama was on the ballot there.
May 3, 2008 1:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good, maybe he can move there and become governor?
May 3, 2008 1:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
From Kos:
Also on the ballot Saturday was the race for chairman and vice chairman of the U.S. territory's Democratic party. The winners of that race will serve as superdelegates. According to the election official, the slate of Pilar Lujan and Jaime Paulino currently leads the slate of Joseph Artero Cameron and Arlen Bordallo. Lujan remains uncommitted in the race for president while running-mate Paulino has endorsed Obama. Both Cameron and Bordallo have endorsed Clinton. Incumbent chairman Tony Charfauros and running-mate Mary Ann Cabrera are currently in third place. Neither has endorsed a presidential candidate.
If Artero (first last name is the paternal, like mine) and Bordallo win, that's two more delegates for Clinton, while Lujan and Paulino would be +1 Obama plus an uncommitted.
With 13 districts counted:
Lujan/Paulino (+1 Obama, +1 undeclared): 894
Artero/Bordallo (+2 Clinton): 624
May 3, 2008 1:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Also:
13 of 19 districts reporting
Obama 1,007
Clinton 874
May 3, 2008 1:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't forget Texas, and Ohio. Obama hasn't won a major contest since February. But he stands a chance of a huge win in Guam today, if they can hurry those oxen up and get the precinct votes delivered.
May 3, 2008 2:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama got more delegates than Clinton out of Texas, when including the caucus. Delegates that help lead to nomination.
So of course, by winning more delegates than Clinton in Texas, Obama lost Texas. Sure.
May 3, 2008 4:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
O Otto.
LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Obama won Texas.
You can deny it a million times and it still won't change the outcome.
LOLOLOLOLOLOL!!!!!!!!!!!!
May 3, 2008 5:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Mississippi isn't "major"? I bet he picked up more delegates there than she did in Texas--oh, I forgot he WON Texas.
May 3, 2008 7:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
15 of 19 districts reporting:
Obama 1,393 53.3%
Clinton 1,222 46.7%
Here's the link to Pacific Daily News:
http://www.guampdn.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080504/NEWS01/80504013&GID=GwtaVBevkYSQ1UsrZirtpJClMAVj166UKrtZE30selg%3D
May 3, 2008 2:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Forty-something to fifty-something! It's a ten-point, double-digit victory!!!
May 3, 2008 4:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oguama!
So he could win five of those nine delegates Guam gets (even though that's nine more dels than FL or Mi are getting). How did he do with the Polynesian working class vote?
May 3, 2008 3:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
To be pedantic, that should be "Micronesian working class vote."
May 3, 2008 3:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
My apologies to working class voters of every persuasion (shout out to all Pac Islanders!).
May 3, 2008 4:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
On another note, anyone know if there will be any polling for Puerto Rico?
May 3, 2008 4:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
As Guam goes; So goes the Nation!
"5:40 a.m. -- After 18 of 19 districts counted, Obama has 1,720 votes; Clinton at 1,509
In the race for chairman/vicechairman, the team of Pilar Lujan/Jaime Paulino has 1,299 votes in the 18 counted districts. Antonio Charfauros/Mary Ann Cabrera have 653 total votes and the team of Joseph Artero Cameron/Arlene P. Bordallo has 967 votes."
This would mean a pickup of 1 super also for Barack
http://www.guampdn.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080504/NEWS01/80504015
May 3, 2008 4:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ben...
TPM's Eric Keefeld said the other day that Obama had to have a rout in NC. That anal-ysis holds true for Guam too.
Looks to me like Hill is hanging as tough as the balls on an old circus donkey.
I'm with Eric and Josh and David Kurtz and Syd Blumenthal on this one. This is a Clinton victory.
And for me that means one thing:
Orgy-porgy tonite!
Orgy-porgy!
May 3, 2008 4:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Love your performance.
You and BraveNewWorld, you are a pair. A hillarious pair.
May 3, 2008 4:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
ARGH!
IMPORTANT PRIMARIES ARE ONLY FOR NON-FLY OVER STATES!
GUAM IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN IDAHO!
PUT WENCH HILLARY IN A BIKINI ON A GUAM BEACH!
THEN COUNT THE VOTES!
ACQUIRE MORE TERRITORY! MERGE! MARAUD! DILUTE! DILUTE!
ARGH!
May 3, 2008 4:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Evainne - I couldn't agree more.
We are so lucky to be graced with such talent.
May 3, 2008 5:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
ARGH!
ME LASSIE! REMEMBER WHEN I GAVE YOU THE EYE!
THAT'S WHY I WEARS THE PATCH!
ARGH!
May 3, 2008 11:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
People in Guam are proud to be Americans. They're very patriotic, even the young people I met when studying Korean together a few years back. One fellow student with whom I had spent many a night drinking, fraternizing and otherwise misbehaving got really upset when the Korean teacher (Korean's see themselves as one people, bloodwise) implied that Guamians weren't real Americans.
May 3, 2008 5:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
I sure hope we treat them better than we do the people in the Marianas.
It's touching really, that they feel that way.
May 3, 2008 6:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
There is a large military base on Guam. My friend's brother was in the Navy and was stationed there for about four years. He loved it and the only fault he found was the huge brown-snakes that are everywhere. Not much of a rodent or big insect problem though, I guess the snakes eat them all.
May 3, 2008 6:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's now official. Obama won Guam by 7 votes.
May 3, 2008 7:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's official, Obama wins Guam caucus.
http://www.guampdn.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080504/NEWS01/80504018
May 3, 2008 7:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes - Senator Obama won! The final results were just announced. 8:50 a.m. — When all of the ballots were finally counted -- a process that lasted through the night until well after the sun was up -- Sen. Barack Obama had the most votes from Guam Democrats in the party’s caucus held yesterday.
Obama finished with 2,264 votes to Sen. Hillary Clinton’s 2,257 votes – a 7-point difference. Obama never trailed from the first vote count on.
Here's the link from Guam:
http://www.guampdn.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080504/NEWS01/80504018
May 3, 2008 7:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
If we round those seven up to ten, it's a double-digit victory!
May 3, 2008 7:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL.
May 3, 2008 8:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Any hanging chads?
May 3, 2008 7:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ben, you can stop sweating now! Your ass has been saved by a seven vote margin!
May 3, 2008 7:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
*whew*
May 3, 2008 9:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ben did it. In posting that Obama had won, Ben reified the win.
Congratulations, Ben.
Now, could you get on with writing your posts for IN and NC? We want wins there too.
May 4, 2008 12:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, we would love Ben to "hawk" the "game changing" tuesday primaries too - but with a much "better" margin.
GO GUAMA
May 4, 2008 1:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ben willed it to happen! I have no doubt in his ability. Thanks for putting this one out to the universe Mr. Hocking!
May 4, 2008 1:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'll see what I can do. I have an idea or two…
May 4, 2008 7:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obama gets two super delegates from Guam!
May 3, 2008 7:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
7 votes. Congrats on the monstrous win Ben. Obviously she should concede without haste
May 3, 2008 9:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
She lost again. She really should concede. I agree.
May 3, 2008 9:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree, it was a fantastic win over the "monster".
May 3, 2008 11:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Guamalicious!
May 4, 2008 1:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
9:30 a.m. Guam - The Democrat Party Nominating Committee said officials will look over the large amount of "spoiled ballots" in the coming days.
At issue is the small margin of victory of Senator Barack Obama. He beat his rival, Senator Hillary Clinton by 7 votes, but well over 500 ballots were deemed invalid during the tabulation process.
Herbie Perez, chairman of the nominating committee, said she will not certify the results because the Committee needs to ensure that all the uncounted ballots were properly identified as "spoiled."
She said officials from the Party and representatives from both candidates will meet probably Monday or Tuesday to address that issue.
Perez revealed she is also looking into the missing ballots.
More than 8,100 were printed in response to reports of shortages at precinct sites. But when the final tally came in, only a little over 4,500 ballots were used. - Pacific News Center - Guam, Saipan, CNMI, Asia-Pacific
May 4, 2008 3:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
LOL! The Dems can't get anything right!
In 2008, we still are plagued by ballot box stuffing and dirty tricks.
We look worse than a 3rd world country -- who are we to police elections elsewhere?
May 4, 2008 3:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
You should be glad that they passed the "hanging chads" phase of the learning curve. Piddly 4500 votes and they couldn't get that right.
May 4, 2008 4:22 AM | Reply | Permalink