The 95% white party and the decline of the once powerful GOP
These three GOP losses in red congressional districts have me thinking back to a Wall Street Journal article from last September.
We've been talking so much about "demographic" splits in the Democratic electorate recently, it is worth remembering that at least Dems have significant differences in voter demographics.
The last line of the WSJ article reads:
The Fabrizio survey found that just 2% of Republicans are Hispanic, along with 1% who are black. "We've made no progress in 10 years," the pollster says -- not a good sign "in a nation that is becoming more heavily minority."
According to the Fabrizio study: the GOP is 93% white (page 85, although I think it's actually closer to 95%. Note that 2% refused to answer).
I think that we should all be prepared for the fact that the racial dynamics and gaffes that have played out in the Democratic primary (SC vs WV, G. Ferraro, Rev. Wright, L. Farakan, Bill on Jesse, media talk about "working class white voters", etc, etc...) are going to be something around x10 in the general election? Hell, Obama's offices have already been vandalized with racist crap in the primary. It's going to get seriously worse.
Just as with the primary, we're rarely going to hear the worst stuff from the opponent's mouth directly, but these racial/ethnic/societal divisions will be more pronounced and more talked about and more apparent than perhaps since the end of segregation in America. (or perhaps more recently, the way there was a clear split in the country after the OJ not guilty verdict).
But what's the result? I think it all ends up driving more and more maintream Americans running from the GOP. The base of the Republican Party will become more whiter (yes, whiter than 95%), more conservative, and more ding bat crazy. If Hillary were the nominee, I think the same sexist culture of the white men's club at the GOP would have had the same result.
I don't think this is a bad thing either. I think the deeply held yet rarely spoken racial stereotypes and insensitivity of today's GOP will be brought under a huge microscope (already having a member of Congress call Obama "boy") and will further push away moderate and young GOPers.
The GOP is in a pitiful state. It's going to get worse. The take over of the GOP by social conservatives is coming full circle and it's going to be a hard hit this November.
Let's hope you're correct and also that some smarmy young neocon hero does not rise out of the ashes of the current GOP and drag this country back into a right-wing trainwreck.
May 14, 2008 6:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, at least we can say for sure that John McCain is not the Ronald Reagan (or Ronald Pablum) the GOP is dreaming of. I don't think I've heard a worse speaker than John Snoozer-MCain since I was in high school.
Hillary must like him though, because besides her endorsing him over Obama, she used the "My Friends" phrase in her WV speech. Remember, Imitation is the highest compliment.
May 14, 2008 7:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
McShame!
May 15, 2008 1:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't think I've heard a worse speaker than John Snoozer-MCain since I was in high school.
Sure you have, Jan. Hint: His middle initial is dubya.
May 15, 2008 1:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
yeah - I said "more whiter" and I meant it.
(damn edit button, where are you!)
May 14, 2008 6:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
They can play "A Whiter Shade of Pale" at all their conventions.
May 15, 2008 10:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
Good lord, those are terrible numbers. I see why Rove was so focused on attracting Hispanics. If the GOP doesn't broaden their appeal, they really are in danger of becoming the party of a single ethnic group. That's not a recipe for success in 21c America.
May 14, 2008 7:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Astounding caucasianiosity.
May 15, 2008 2:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wish I shared your optimism that all this attention to race will only help elect Obama. Had it not been for Jeremiah Wright I believe Obama's candidacy could have moved America's race relations forward. Now I see a possibility that it will set racial progress back. And don't underestimate the 95% white GOP's ability to capture the White House any way they can.
May 14, 2008 7:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Otto
Your beginning to sound like a palindrome....
May 14, 2008 10:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
This thread isn't mainly about Obama. It's about the longer-term future of the GOP. If you feel like rehearsing the same old argument about the primary season of two-thousand-ought-eight -- and what coulda shoulda happened that spring --please find some other thread.
May 14, 2008 10:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
This state of the GOP is really about both November and the long term.
First, for November, what will it mean that Barack Obama will now be running against an opposing political party that is made up of 95% whites (compared to a primary opponents who were trying to get the same voters or who are aware of the party's diversity and tried as best they could - sometimes clumsily - to avoid upsetting or offending the various factions in the party). I think we should be prepared for an election in which we see that racism is alive and well in America. Think the infamous black hand taking a a job notice from a white hand in Jesse Helms campaign. Will the racism work and will McCain win? I don't think it will but who knows.
But certainly the bigger picture is: where the heck is the GOP going? It's membership is getting older. It's base voters are less in line with mainstream America. It's been taken over by the moralists (anti-gay, anti-immigrant) and neo-cons (bombs away, spend away). And it's freakin 95% white in a country where the majority of people are not white. And young people are staying away from the party in staggering numbers.
This is not a model for success and perhaps they are already beginning (3 losses in red congressional districts) to pay a price for their homogeneous make-up.
May 15, 2008 8:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
This is the problem with groups that run on the idea of "purity." Be it race or moralism, they keep paring the "purity" down to the point where it stinks!
May 15, 2008 3:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Democrats are being way too smug on this. They run Congress for one reason: George Bush. Their approval numbers are just as alarming as his. You can't count on the weakness of your opponent to win ad infinitum. Look at what happened to the Labor Party in Britain. Anyone remember the absolute drubbing Democrats took in 2002? That was a mere 6 years ago.
We've got strong inflationary pressures working their way through the pipeline that are going to surface well into next year. What are Democratic leaders doing about it? Nothing except working on yet another budget-busting stimulus package that doesn't do anything to address the underlying problems. I've said it before on this board: Democrats need to replace Pelosi and Reed if they want to retain their majority. The back-slapping victory gloat is over. Now, you have to produce.
May 14, 2008 11:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
What we need is a working majority. Lieberman may have gotten us all the chairmanships (which he didn't have to do), but he still hurts us in voting on international matters, and the blue dogs are even worse on domestic issues.
May 15, 2008 12:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
The big tent is back up, Scalfin. You have Democrats more conservative than the GOP in Congress now. So, the real wisdom of Howard Dean's strategy is yet to be discovered. You can find no shortage of ambitous folks in any district willing to run as a Democrat. With the GOP in such disarray, they have a good chance or winning. Dean is ignoring their actual political views and their campaign rhetoric for the sake of winning seats.
May 15, 2008 11:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
That is how majorities are forged. Then you get a president who has the kind of leadership skill it takes to get the people to demand that their legislators do the hard work of compromise needed and get down to business and you can fix some problems.
May 15, 2008 3:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
And demographic studies of Florida show that the Hispanic Republicans here are first-generation Cuban-Americans whose children and grandchildren do not share their parents' positions on the Cuba embargo nor the antipathy to the Democrats that older Cuban-Americans feel because of Kenndy and the Bay of Pigs. All the younger Cuban-Americans I know are politely quiet in front of their parents and privately vote as they please.
May 15, 2008 11:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
And there was recently a report out that said there are more Hispanics registered as Democrats than Republicans in Florida now.
May 15, 2008 11:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
Interesting and Good post Yoda. I especially forgot about the member of congress calling him boy!
You have also sparked my brain to become even more prepared for the sh*t storm thats comming. You speak of the vandalism of the campaign offices. I think of the things people in power have done, some for not so bad reasons, maybe like when they infiltrated the KKK and maybe broke the law to bring them down. Or things that happened with the black Panthers(not saying that was good). Things like infiltrating peaceful marches. So now that the people in power, are heading to a place where their power is being threatned, it's scary to imagine to what depth they will fight to retain it and the foothold they have in the media. Not to mention the media itself.
Just a little perspective and I can't say it enough. For a dude that hangs with people that resist the thought of politics in the least way, it's good to know that people like you and a place Like Tpm will be there to fight back when they start. That's what I use to ease some of my worries....I know that's cheezy, but it's real! Even with all thats going on, still some people dont care.
May 15, 2008 11:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
Fair enough Yoda!
May 15, 2008 12:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think "shame" is going to be a huge issue in this election. Americans feel ashamed. bush has made them feel ashamed. repubs have made them feel ashamed.
And "shame" alone will either result in crossing parties or staying home. But who's going to vote for shameful policies??? (ok... some nuts! but that's the 28%!)
May 15, 2008 11:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, don't misunderestimate Americans' ability to feel no shame.
May 15, 2008 2:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
You are right. Some feel no shame. But that's a pathology. Most people are highly affected by shame. If only to distance from it.
May 15, 2008 3:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Politico has a post up today called "The Six Ways the GOP Can Save Itself." http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0508/10370_Page2.html
Number 5 is:
May 15, 2008 11:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
I don't think Jeb Bush is the fresh face they are looking for. Jeb can thank his little bro for ruining the Bush family name for a generation.
May 15, 2008 2:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
"image"
"packaging"
That's their problem! They don't want to fix anything except appearances.
May 15, 2008 3:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
they got a smarmy old neocon in McCain.
May 15, 2008 2:39 PM | Reply | Permalink