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The End Has Begun
A couple of days ago, I argued that after Tuesday, the race would essentially be over because there would no longer be a way for Clinton to win the popular vote, her only remaining plausible argument for superdelegates to vote for her.
I reran the numbers based on the tonight's results, which were substantially better for Obama than my conservative assumptions.Clinton would now have to convince at least 75% of the remaining superdelegates to vote for her in order to win the nomination. To win the popular vote, including Florida, she would need to win by average of 65% (a 20 point spread) in the remaining states, which is essentially impossible.
Meanwhile, the pundits have begun talking about the endgame even sooner than I anticipated...
CNN: Delegate counter: Can Obama be overtaken?
ABC: Hillary Squeaks Out Win in Indiana, But Will Her Campaign Stay Afloat?
NYT: Options Dwindling for Clinton
CBS: Analysis: Clinton Barely Hangs On
TPM: Is Hillary Running Out Of "Game Changers"?
FOX: Apocalyptic Sect Leader Arrested on Sex Charges
So allow me to reiterate, this will all be over soon.
I reran the numbers based on the tonight's results, which were substantially better for Obama than my conservative assumptions.Clinton would now have to convince at least 75% of the remaining superdelegates to vote for her in order to win the nomination. To win the popular vote, including Florida, she would need to win by average of 65% (a 20 point spread) in the remaining states, which is essentially impossible.
Meanwhile, the pundits have begun talking about the endgame even sooner than I anticipated...
CNN: Delegate counter: Can Obama be overtaken?
ABC: Hillary Squeaks Out Win in Indiana, But Will Her Campaign Stay Afloat?
NYT: Options Dwindling for Clinton
CBS: Analysis: Clinton Barely Hangs On
TPM: Is Hillary Running Out Of "Game Changers"?
FOX: Apocalyptic Sect Leader Arrested on Sex Charges
So allow me to reiterate, this will all be over soon.
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Sorry, that would be a 30 point spread, which is even more impossible. (Can impossible be a matter of degree?)
PS Thanks to am, drw3344, and jeff the lurker for showing up at the results part tonight.
May 7, 2008 2:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
May 7, 2008 2:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
You can tell it's a real party when the Finnish media shows up.
Not to confuse anyone, but I changed my name here to a capital AM. I did this because when you wrote "Thanks to am, drw3344, and jeff the lurker" at first I was offended you hadn't thanked me. I hadn't seen the am, since it just looks like a word and not a name.
May 7, 2008 3:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
or too drunk.
May 7, 2008 6:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
Um, completely off subject but I just gotta say it -- Genghis, the fact that your shirt is changing colors is kinda freaking me out.
May 7, 2008 1:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
welcome to the party
May 7, 2008 2:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's giving me a migraine...
May 7, 2008 10:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Degrees of impossibility... Why does that bring to mind Douglass Adams?
-Douglas Adams, The Long Dark Tea-Time of the Soul (1988)
May 7, 2008 2:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
You have excellent taste in books.
In just four days it will be seven years since Douglas Adams died, all too prematurely. Authors should not be allowed to die without finishing their books first.
May 7, 2008 5:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
Genghis:
What can I say? You were right. The media (or at least a substantial segment of it) appears willing to recognize mathematical realities. We'll see how well that holds up over the next week, as a contested WV campaign offers another stretch of exceptional ratings, but it's possible we've turned the corner here.
I do want to take issue with one element of your math, though. There are, according to DCW, 270.5 uncommitted superdelegates. About 20 of those are UADs from caucus states where the Obama-dominated convention will certainly pick his supporters - unlike primary states, there's no chance of surprise outcomes. DCW counts another half-dozen who've promised to support the pledged delegate leader. Than there are those (Donna Brazile, for example) who've made their choice perfectly clear, but prefer to remain neutral for now. Maybe another ten in that category. And finally, there've been a couple dozen Clinton supporters who've indicated that they won't vote against the pledged/popular leader, or perhaps not even against the pledged leader (Maria Cantwell, Elaine Kamarck, etc.)
My point is that it's not improbable - it's mathematically impossible - for Clinton to win the nomination. She can't afford any defections at all, but too many of her supporters have already made it clear that if she couldn't close the pledged delegate gap, they wouldn't be supporting her. With the defections taken into account, she needs to win all but a few dozen of the superdelegates, but more than that number are either (a) UADs going to Obama or (b) clearly committed to him.
It's worth noting that there were no superdelegates announced by the Obama campaign yesterday (although one in NC took the trouble to declare her support by herself). And, despite his sweeping victories, there hasn't been so much of a hint of further endorsements this morning. My guess is that the campaign will hold off for at least a few hours more, giving Hillary the chance to sit with her advisers, hear from party elders and supers, and withdraw with a measure of grace and dignity. But just as soon as she makes it clear she's going to fight, the Obama campaign is going to start rolling out superdelegates. And I suspect that, with yesterday's results in hand, a whole bunch of superdelegates are going to be suddenly prepared to go public with their support. Well before West Virginia votes, the nomination math won't require inferences.
May 7, 2008 8:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks fotw. Of course, I defer to you on the delegate math and hope to see a final footnote from you on the state of UADs before the race is wrapped up.
Me too.
May 7, 2008 10:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
If it's impossible or more impossible or even just impossibly improbable for Clinton mathematically, then Obama needs to call for seating the MI and FLA delegates now, right? The longer the DNC waits on this, the more voters in those states will feel slighted. If he's got it wrapped up, then there's no reason not to :)
May 7, 2008 4:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Please also note that Yoda is an all knowing and all powerful Jedi Master who can predict election outcomes before they happen (or at least be damn close): http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/04/north-carolina-overview-of-the.php
May 7, 2008 11:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
Predict … or influence?
"This is not the candidate you're looking for…"
May 7, 2008 5:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree. Your candidate has won. Clinton will try to clear her campaign debt and play on through Kentucky using a unity against McCain theme.
Over the next several months Clinton will do her part to unify the party. If she does so, the least the Obama supporters can do is not blame her when he loses somewhere between Dukasis and McGovern.
May 7, 2008 5:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hope this means that you're also planning on making sure that your prediction fails to happen, right?
May 7, 2008 5:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, I honestly hope that I'm wrong. I won't be here for the election. I'm going overseas for a year, so I won't be able to volunteer the way I always do.
I'll do something, though. There are a lot of American expats in the country I'm going to, so I'll work to get people to register and vote Democratic via absentee ballots.
May 7, 2008 7:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Glad to hear it!
I really think your prediction is way off, but it's best to work under the assumption that it's not, in order to make sure that it is. (I think I just confused myself with that one!)
May 7, 2008 7:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
You forgot the most important part:
How was Revival?
May 7, 2008 2:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
Judging by Genghis' inability to write "party" (above), I'm gonna say it went well.
May 7, 2008 2:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
How was the turnout in SF? I lived there for many years.
May 7, 2008 3:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for asking! I don't think I really promoted the SF event soon enough, so really it was just me and a couple friends I'd dragged along. But it was great, anyway! There's something about watching politics in a bar... I talked a stranger into voting in the GE, and there were plenty of people who just showed up by "accident" who were in good spirits about the whole thing. Didn't have anything near as fun as a round of Crown Royal, though. (Wonder how much of a bump Clinton's given Crown Royal?)
May 7, 2008 11:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
CaliforniaPaige, I am curious to hear your impressions of San Franciscan's and this primary. I was in the bay area for 12 years until last summer. The few people I've been keeping in touch with have been Obama supporters, but was that the overwhelming consensus or did Hillary have a lot of support too? When people talk about California going for Hillary, I tend to just blame it on southern california, but maybe I am jumping to conclusions. Go elitist San Franciscans!
May 7, 2008 12:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Cheers to elitists all over the place!
Lots of Obama support in SF. Obama won in SF County, Alameda County, and a sizable smattering of other counties around the state -- though nothing further south than Santa Barbara. At this point, I only see Obama yard/window signs around, though for a while there, we had quite a few Ron Paul signs and a surprising number of Romney signs, too. In general, though, I think people around here are bored with the election and will gladly support the Democratic ticket.
May 7, 2008 4:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Silicon Valley loves Obama.
It's not surprising as you will note how Obama truly "gets" the high-tech world. (Look how he used it to fund raise, for example.)
May 7, 2008 9:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
There is nothing more young and elitist than Silicon Valley. I say it out of love.
May 9, 2008 8:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Representing southern California, I gotta say that practically everyone I know here (with two exceptions; a third, a low-information voter who voted for Clinton Feb. 5 because he perceived her to be more gay-friendly than Obama, defected in disgust at her race-baiting). I know that my circle of acquaintances isn't representative -- black people, lawyers and latte-sipping, Prius-driving liberal academics are heavily overrepresented -- but for what it's worth, I'm told that Hollywood/Los Feliz -- CD33 -- went more heavily for Obama than any other district in California. (Or was it just SoCal? I forget. Up too late last night listening to the results.)
May 7, 2008 7:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Erm. I mean, "practically everybody I know here is an Obama supporter."
May 7, 2008 7:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
You're probably right about CD33 -- I spent probably 10 minutes looking for that CD-by-CD breakdown before replying to AM's question and unfortunately couldn't find it. The country-by-country one is way less interesting.
May 7, 2008 8:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Depends what you mean by SoCal.
In much of LA County, people were a lot stronger for Hillary -- this especially included Asians and Latinos.
No one will breath a word about this, but race was clearly a factor. The only question is how much.
Interestingly, many of the cities around LA County that went for Hillary have high-salaries and nice cars... you know, the elites.
May 7, 2008 9:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama barely campaigned here. And, like New Yorkers, many Californians who voted for Clinton on Feb. 5 have since suffered buyer's remorse. California will go for Obama in the GE. You can't possibly think that the GOP's immigrant-baiting will draw Asian-American and Latino/a votes.
Obama's supposed race problem with Asians and Latinos/as is overblown. As Latina/o commentator after Asian commentator kept pointing out, back in February, in response to the "those brown people are so racist" theme in the MSM, young Asian-Americans and Latinos went overwhelmingly for change, and Obama. Older immigrants went for name recognition, and Clinton. And, in several southwestern states (Arizona was one; don't remember the others), Latinas/os were more likely than whites to vote for Obama.
May 7, 2008 11:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Correct.
Correct, I often make this point on TPM as well.
I agree.
Can't agree, that's too broad a statement.
Many of the Asians in SoCal are either very recent immigrants (Chinese, Korean), wealthy, or both. These groups tend to often be conservative. This is one of the reasons why the high-income people in many SoCal locals went for Hillary -- they saw her as the candidate of the old school.
And I agree about you can't lump all Latinos together: California broke differently than New Mexico.
However, it's not all kumbaya either. But as you say, the state will go for Obama most likely. Several local representatives from the GOP are beginning to feel heat. Some for the first time in years.
In the end, I think that's what the GOP fears so much in Obama -- his coattails are going to be very, very long mostly because he is getting out the vote. It wasn't Hillary that was organized enough on the ground to get out all those new voters.
May 8, 2008 12:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
I didn't promote mine either, except at TPM. Maybe there were just more New Yorkers desperate for a party. This one was smaller though. I'm glad that you had a good time.
I'm still disappointed in the TPMers though, on both sides of the country.
May 7, 2008 2:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
I just couldn't envision driving 3.5 hours to get home after a couple of 3 hours of sleep nights and having to get back to work in the morning.
Tuesdays are tough.
I'm going to try and get HillaryM to carpool. I'm just down the road in Monroe some days.
:)
Plus, she's rather cool.
May 7, 2008 7:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
The trouble is, we're almost out of primaries! So what other excuses might there be for celebration/commiseration? I mean, of the sort that can be planned well in advance.
May 7, 2008 8:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
I dunno about you, CP, but I don't need much of an excuse.
:D
May 7, 2008 10:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
How about June 3? That should be a day worth celebrating. Also, I hear that the Obama campaign is expecting to do better than predicted in Puerto Rico.
I know out here the campaign has been recruiting Boricuas and other Spanish speakers to phone Puerto Rico for two weeks now. And it probably won't be too hard to persuade people to fly out to PR to knock on doors and GOTV.
May 7, 2008 11:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Er, ¡Dame cerveza!
Heh.
May 7, 2008 11:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bee, that's a very good point.
May 8, 2008 12:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
Smaller crowd, happier results. One more TPMer than last time, but I'm not sure that it counts because AM was present last time as well; she just wasn't a TPMer at that time.
Highlights included interviews with a reporter from Finnish television, a round of celebratory shots of Crown Royal, some weird small-world run-ins, and of course, Obama's speech.
May 7, 2008 10:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
Genghis, your shirt is green!
P.S. Loved that Fox Headline.
May 7, 2008 2:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
Dude, it was over in March. All this has been media blather....
M
May 7, 2008 2:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
But, but, but...MICHIGAN AND FLORIDA! CHARGE!!
May 7, 2008 2:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
Genghis, you must have been part of a party tonight, eh? hee.
May 7, 2008 2:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
Apocalypse + sex charges = game-changer
May 7, 2008 2:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
apocalypse + sex charges = FOX
May 8, 2008 12:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
Sooops! Shall I say magical? "Green" doesn't come close.
You deserve another recommend, just for the shirt.
P.S. Me (2d3sky) and "Ame Tani" are the same person. I am not tech savy enough to merge us (sigh).
May 7, 2008 3:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
As usual, Fox gets it right.
May 7, 2008 4:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
:D
May 7, 2008 6:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
Fascinated to see what comes this morning.
Disagreement welcome, but I see Senator Clinton's checklist thusly:
1) Win the presidency in 2008, if at all possible.
2) Failing #1, work to engender an environment in which I can win the presidency in 2012.
3) Failing #'s 1 and 2, work to build my legacy. Because by 2016 I'll be 69 and presumably faced with a sitting Democratic VP to run against (likely a younger woman) or an unknown Republican incumbent, and either way my chances don't look too good.
I suspect she has not completely given up hope for #1 (and won't until the moment Senator Obama is declared the nominee at the convention). However, she has understood for sometime this is not a likely outcome, and is somewhere between contingencies 2 and 3 at this point.
I am intrigued to see if she will risk an attempt to damage Obama to the point where he may actually lose the general, she can say "told you so", and ride in to victory after what is sure to be four disastrous years of the McCain administration. Surely she would not want to poison the well for herself in 2012, nor risk irreparable damage to her legacy. So I can't help wonder where she will draw the line as she navigates these seemingly treacherous waters.
I think it will be fascinating to watch, and that odds are better than average we will hold witness to a masterstroke of politicking scarcely seen before. Open your umbrellas.
May 7, 2008 6:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
She won't even run in 2012. She knows that whoever wins this time is in for 8 years. It's almost statistically impossible that the country will be in worse shape in 2012, and an president following Bush will look like Einstein, Lincoln and Washington rolled into one.
She be almost 70 in 2016. Too old I think to run against McCain's VP.
May 8, 2008 6:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Genghis:
You and your shirt are probably getting your beauty rest after you long evening of partying. This loyal Hillary Clinton supporter never made it off of the couch once he got home, put the baby to bed, and started soaking in the results. It was a real fun night in my apartment as I'm sure you can imagine. I promise to try to make your next soiree. My wife got a charge out of the notion that I actually communicate with real, live people on here.
In any event, I once wrote on here, I think it was after Destor went over to Obama, that I would never announce my support for Senator Obama on here because I had come to disrespect and loathe so many posters, who had turned my support for Hillary Clinton into some kind of de facto support for racism, war, and dog-kicking. I still feel that way about lots of folks, and I don't forget that there are people on this progressive website who have called me a DINO (I didn't even know what the term meant until recently). For some, I understand things are said in a campaign; and then there are others who know who they are.
But I want you to know that you and Greg (Missouri voter) and a few others have come to TPM and have set an example for your peers and I have nothing but respect and admiration for you. And, so, while I will stick with Hillary Clinton for as long as she decides to stay in the race, and I will do so proudly, the handwriting is on the wall, and respectfully it is not just about the numbers. When folks like me get a feeling in the gut, that's how you know we are moving into another phase.
I hope to address things that trouble me, things I've learned about many of my brothers and sisters on the left of the American political scene (I'm talking about the folks who are the mirror image of the Rush Limbaugh dittoheads), that I have never in my 48 years been cognizant of. But now is not the time because I need to take a pause and reflect.
I am proud that, to my knowledge, I have gone through this whole campaign without ever publicly calling Barack Obama on trash. I have on occasion questioned his bona fides as a genuine non-political politician on more than one occasion, and I have challenged positions he has taken, but I have always made it clear that I do not hold the fact that he is a politician against him. If Hillary decides that enough is enough, I turn to Senator Obama and his campaign with a clear conscience, and with my credibility as a true and loyal Democrat intact.
I have always said that I will support the Democratic nominee with vigor and I am so proud that I have never moved from that position. I stand by that pledge and do so with my head held high. I am not and have never been unaware of the positives underlying Senator Obama's campaign. As you know, my three voting age kids are avid Obama supporters and their enthusiasm would make any parent proud (even my 17-month old, who is one of those kids who had just come into the world when this campaign started, will come to know Obama). But unlike folks who have come to Obama because their kids convinced them to do so, this proud Dad will come to the dance on his own. And I will dance when I get there, I promise.
In unity,
Bruce
May 7, 2008 7:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
Now that's a concession speech. Nicely put.
May 7, 2008 8:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
As I'm used to being called the turd in the punchbowl, I have a couple of comments that are a reality check:
1) If Obama's won, he's going to be representing the whole Democratic party now. Even those detached, disposable people who voted for Hillary, even old people, rednecks, old women, etc. His demographics to me don't show an improvement in overall electability - they show an increased consolidation of his black base to now over 90% in both of the states yesterday. There's quite a lot of work to be done to reconcile this situation. Likely a Hillary VP slot would be the easiest, safest way to ensure this, though it would require Obama fans to do some teeth gritting. Perhaps after the victory celebration they can face up to this.
2) Second is the negativity. My post on Michelle's speech on C-Span is a reality check - this isn't an Audacity of Hope speech - it's a bummer. Forget Hillary. It's a bummer. Republicans can pick this apart and use it a million ways. No good. As I answered in a response, I don't think it's endemic to Michelle's personality, even though it's a common tone in black communities. A good speech writer and speaking coach can give her a makeover no problem. But someone on the Democrat's side has to notice and think it's a problem. Because the Republicans have noticed over and over, and it'll be one of the tiers of their attacks if it's not dealt with.
Okay, sorry about the punch - maybe they can bring out a new bowl. By the way, good job.
May 7, 2008 9:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
Chimpo. My main concern is that you would leave TPM because it would be incredibly boring without you.
It will be interesting to see what happens at TPM? Yes? Everyone making nicey-nice.
May 7, 2008 10:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
She tried that already. Lasted about half a day.
May 7, 2008 10:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
Gheghis. How will you keep up energy and interest at TPM? Without controversy, and no McCain posters likely, how does that happen?
Obama people are going to calm down. Clinton people won't have much energy.
You can see, in a way, why the press had such an interest in the continuing drama.
May 7, 2008 10:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
Oh there will be much outraged McCain bashing. And people complaining about the quality of the posts. And rickrolling. And, occasionally, interesting posts about particle accelerators.
But, yeah, it's been fun, and after it's finished, we'll probably miss the roly-poly primary that we couldn't wait to end.
And don't call me Gheghis.
May 7, 2008 10:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
Dude. I can't spell. But in my real life, I took a look at the advertising rates on TPM. The site thrives on the free-for-all
wild west atmosphere among (mostly) intelligent people.
As someone who buys some books seen in the right panel, and, even thought about advertising here, the challenge will be keeping your demographic of highly committed, young thinking (if not as young as their avatars suggests), politically involved people.
My honest suggestion is that you really make an effort to include as many new people as you can, and don't scare them off with too much insider stuff. Also, help TPM realize that daily postings that are recommended by friends make the site seem more vigorous than it actually is. Go to a three-day cycle.
Good luck shirt.
May 7, 2008 11:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
I got interested in TPM when I was doing some research on citjour in the Middle East for Net Zero and I noticed Juan Cole plugging TPM as Progressive Potitics, elegantly argued. When I realized my personal diary had become almost exclusively about the campaign, I decided to post at TPM instead.
I think the reader blogs are an extension of Marshall's philosophy of enrolling readers in the process. Posting DOJ memos and asking readers to search through them for muck, for example. The blogs extend the opinion side of TPM.
That some readers would choose to use the reader blog space for performance art and satire instead of straightforward political comment is probably something Marshall, who seems a little square and uptight, never contemplated.
May 8, 2008 9:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
Even with our man, Obama, taking the nomination, I don't think we'll all be happy with how he's handling McCain 24-7. I think there will be much to debate in the coming months.
May 7, 2008 1:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Um, Des is a he.
He said so. Just concerned with women's rights. That's a good thing.
May 7, 2008 7:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
It has been curious to me that being concerned with women's rights and overt sexism got me automatically labelled a she, but on the Internet nobody knows you're an androgynous warthog from outer space. Yes, I came back in time too, but a different wave from Billy, I was just here on a tourist cruise and we got knocked of course in the Kuiper Belt. Talk about backwoods charm...
May 7, 2008 7:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Des, I hope you're not going anywhere.
I concur with Hilary.
You and Billy, really make the board.
:D
May 7, 2008 7:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, I used to think that you were a he, but then you said something in your goodbye speech that made me think that you were a she but that people thought that you were a he. And I used to think that gasket was a he, but now I think she's a she. And I thought that mageduley was a he, but apparently, she's a she too.
Fuck it all, I'm calling people whatever gender I feel like. If they don't have a gendered name or avatar, they take whatever they get.
May 8, 2008 1:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
Met her in a bar down in old Soho
Where they drink champagne and it tastes just like cherry cola. C-O-L-A cola.
May 8, 2008 2:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
Even more concrete a reality check is to notice the vote rigging in Indiana. Lake County is well known for fraudulent elections. People who know Indiana politics expected Obama to lose by a much higher margin for many compelling reasons: all the Hispanics who live in Lake County, for one reason.
May 7, 2008 10:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ready, you are grasping. For one thing, Lake county is adjacent to the south side of Chicago. In Obama's senate race he carried the Latino vote by 70%. Second, there is solid evidence from the exit polls that Operation Chaos had a distinct impact. Third, Obama headquarters is less than 1 hour away. If you thought the organization around the country was impressive, just imagine the coalition created by IL Obama supporters that only need to drive a short hop to canvass.
The straws you are grasping are getting mighty thin.
May 7, 2008 10:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not grasping, mageduley. I think Clinton will concede today. But I also think the Republicans manipulated the Dem nomination, as I try to clarify here.
I wish you could give me the benefit of the doubt that I want a Democrat in the White House before you presume to know that I am grasping.
May 7, 2008 11:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ready,
I disagree with your premise that because Hillary was favored to win, that the apparent vote rigging would necessarily mean that the vote would have been larger for Clinton.
Again for the reasons I stated above. There is absolutely no evidence that Hillary would have carried the Hispanic vote. Although her appeal has been shown in this area around the country, Obama has bonafides in this demographic in the area we speak of. Therefore, while I don't doubt there was something fishy going on, I personally think, had those irregularities not happened, the win would have gone to Obama.
But that is hardly what needs to be argued here. The fact of the matter is, Obama erased Hillary's PA win. He leads in every metric imaginable. It is time to stop now. It is time to take on the republicans that have destroyed our country.
I wish more Clinton supporters would see that writing on the wall. The primary has been long enough. Let us end it here and get behind the Dem to win the White House.
May 7, 2008 11:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
Give it up, blow, if the 8 rejected nuns had been black men, it'd be hot discussion, but today it will be ignored to instead focus on the Limbaugh narrative. At least it's not about vote stealing & recounts as with New Hampshire. I don't think I have the stomach for that.
May 7, 2008 12:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
How is this meaningfully different from the nonsense about electronic vs paper ballots that ensued post-NH? I am trying to give readytoblowagasket a fair reading here, but his case is very flimsy ("some guy on the internet said..." is hardly a strong argument for so serious a charge). Given that I recall that you were every bit as impatient with the conspiracy theories that took root around these parts in the wake of New Hampshire as I was, I am a mite disappointed to see you indulge them when they blow in the opposite direction later on.
May 7, 2008 1:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Greg, I have several comments on another thread regarding the delayed Lake County vote results in Indiana. Can you come over there so I don't have to repeat everything on this thread? Granted, it's a piecemeal explanation (you would have to do a search for my answers throughout the thread), but it's the best I can offer right now. This thread is not condusive to that conversation.
Anyway, I started doing some research about Indiana after watching Jeffrey Toobin, John King, and others sort of freak out on CNN last night.
May 7, 2008 5:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
I was referring to specifically to 8 or so old nuns who were turned away for lack of proper ID. I don't know how the overall score is in terms of old people rejected at the polls vs. minorities rejected at the polls. People seemed worry the day before yesterday; today it seems forgotten.
May 7, 2008 7:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Rage on gasket! Do not go gently into the light..
May 7, 2008 11:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
Don't worry, I won't go gently!
May 7, 2008 5:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Do you think that Sen Clinton would actually accept the VP slot if offered? I can see the sense of your point (my teeth would be among those that would need to be kept from grinding, but I am prepared to deal with that in light of the good cause involved), but I guess that it is not really clear to me that Sen Clinton would want the #2 post. For a nobody like Dan Quayle, being named VP represents a real promotion; for a woman as obviously talented, intelligent and ambitious as Sen Clinton, however, it is hard for me to think that the vice-presidency would not amount to simply a case of hiding her light under a bushel basket. "Senator from New York" is a much bigger stage on which to shine than "Vice President."
May 7, 2008 12:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Then again, after the Bush administration "Vice President" means a hell of a lot more than it used to.
May 7, 2008 12:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Great comment Bruce. I am sure with people like you and one_wilson, dedicated democrats to be sure, we will storm the White House in November.
May 7, 2008 9:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you for that post, Bruce.
" When folks like me get a feeling in the gut, that's how you know we are moving into another phase." That's a rough feeling - I remember having it at some point during the evening on Nov. 2, 2004 and it still aches on rainy days, so to speak. I sincerely hope that Sen. Obama makes the future months easier for you than GWB ever did for me. I'm confident that he will.
It's still going to be a tough battle and Sen. Clinton has a very big challenge in front of her: conceding in a way that both retains her dignity (what Penn left her, that is!) and instead of further dividing the party starts the healing. She can earn the respect of many of us, who were so disillusioned earlier on, if she manages that. We know it's going to be a harder, against-character challenge for her. I'm hoping some of the surprising, against-what-we-thought-was-her-character talents she's shown in the Senate come to the fore.
And now the anxieties about November begin ... well, maybe in a few days! Glad many of us who were supporting different candidates can be sharing those together.
May 7, 2008 9:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
From WaPo:
May 7, 2008 10:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
Supreme snark. Rock on!
May 7, 2008 11:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
But seriously, Bruce, thank you for the great post. The feeling is mutual. Like any social organization, TPM is multifaceted, but I like to think that Josh's example of objectivity and good sense attracts an above-average crowd, and members like you are one of the things that I appreciate most about TPM. (Though it's fun to bash gotalife too.)
PS What's a DINO?
May 7, 2008 10:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
PPS Sorry to have missed you last night. I may do another one on May 20th, depending on the state of the race and my mood. But regardless, you should definitely come to the fundraiser on June 14th (if you can bring yourself to donate to Obama by that point). It's promising to be a fun loft party in DUMBO.
May 7, 2008 10:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks Genghis. I appreciate both the snark and the kind words. Truth be told, I do feel like a total woos!!! I will be on the left coast on May 20 so I won't make that one but I have the feeling that I will be available for the June 14 fundraiser. Remember, we are moving into the general election season, so you need to brush up on things such as knowing immediately what holiday falls on June 14. . . think _____ pin! :)
May 7, 2008 12:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Head pin?
It's Bowling Day?
May 7, 2008 12:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey, Flag Day was selected on purpose. As a particularly appropriate tribute.
May 7, 2008 8:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Do you announce said parties/fundraisers--location, time, etc.? Are they open to the general TPM readership? I live in DUMBO and might be interested.
May 7, 2008 2:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
We haven't announced any details yet, but the NY one will definitely be open. Join TPM-aholics at my.barackobama.com, and you'll be sure to get the invitation. You can also add me as a friend there.
Also, we're still looking for people to host friends in other cities and join the online Q&A with a member of the Obama campaign, so please contact me at my.barackobama.com if you'd like to participate.
May 7, 2008 2:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Democrat In Name Only
May 7, 2008 10:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hey, Bruce, how did your daughter's graduation go? I hope that you were able to celebrate her accomplishments with all the appropriate festivities. I know that the problem that I always have in Chicago is that there are just too many things worth doing and not nearly enough time to savor them all properly.
May 7, 2008 12:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Greg:
Thanks so much for asking. My daughter graduates at the end of June (Northwestern is on trimester) so she is still finishing up. We're all heading out to Chicago then, including my folks from down in Florida, so I'm really looking forward to it.
By the way, you predicted Obama would win Indiana and, for all intents and purposes, you were spot on. Nice work and keep it up. Warm regards.
Bruce
May 7, 2008 12:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Now you really are being too generous. I was wrong. I gave myself a margin of error in IN and I was outside that margin. There is no way around that. My powers of prophecy nailed NC (within the margin of error), which makes me 2 for 3 so far (I also predicted WI before the election within my specified 2 pt margin of error). IN, however, I clearly got wrong (agonizingly close though I may have come).
May 7, 2008 1:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bruce -
I for one am looking forward to reading what you're going to write. You've always been one of the more level headed and intelligent posters on TPM and even though I don't always agree with what you say, it's always worth listening to.
May 7, 2008 12:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree, I think it's over, and I'm glad.
I still feel uncomfortable about Obama, but then, I didn't feel too great about Hillary, either.
I'm hoping folks can get back to being more objective and less reactionary. We'll all need clear heads to deal with the mindfuck that will be the GOP campaign against the Dem nominee.
It will be intense, and the sooner people can get together in unity, the better.
May 7, 2008 7:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
I agree. Still, I think we should be worrying less about the GOP is going to do and thinking more about
what we're going to do to the GOP starting now. McCain's the one holding the crummy cards this year.
May 7, 2008 9:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
Agreed hoosiertransplant: Democrats are going to unite over the next month, and we're going to unleash a massive storm on McCain and the Republicans. Innuendo and lies will be met with 2-3 damning facts a day from the last 8 years that will crush the GOP. Also, I'm predicting a stirring speech by Hillary and Barack in Denver that will give him a 20+ post-convention bounce.
May 7, 2008 12:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, don't count on it. The best you can hope for (or the worst to fear) is that we merely become unified in our subjectivity. If/when a sincere McCain supporter finds their way onto these boards, well…
May 7, 2008 9:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
Maybe when Obama turns back to the center after he gets the nomination there will be an invasion of Naderites. Otherwise, I don't see how this site can survive.
May 7, 2008 11:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, readytoblow and Louisville are already spinning. I wonder what it is going to take to bring them to the realm we call reality.
May 7, 2008 11:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
Please see above. Your accusations are tedious.
You should want the strongest Clinton supporters on your side, mageduley, so work a little harder at not insulting us.
May 7, 2008 11:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
No insult intended Ready. I simply wanted to point out another view. While I don't disagree that something fishy was going on, I disagree heartily with your assumptions from the evidence you cite. (see above thread)
May 7, 2008 11:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
workerbee, in light of your longtime neutral position, I nominate you to be Chairperson of the Unity Committee. Please see what you can do about that turn in the punchbowl upthread.
May 7, 2008 10:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
Sober now, and I still can't write. Turd in the punchbowl.
May 7, 2008 10:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
Or yet another Freudian slip.
May 7, 2008 12:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Great, so now I'm picturing a poor little drunken bumble bee swimming laps in the punch bowl. I can't decided if that's a depressing image or an hilarious one.
May 7, 2008 8:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL! Now I am too!
May 7, 2008 9:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm honored, I'm blushing.
:D
May 7, 2008 6:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Hillary Deathwatch on Slate.com has our former first lady at her lowest 4.2% chance of clinching the nomination:
http://www.slate.com/id/2190778/
May 7, 2008 8:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
Love the sinking action!
May 7, 2008 10:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
I want to register that Ghengis was right and I was wrong. I doubted that the media would abandon the horse race.
The media DID change its tune (somewhat) and the money has already dried up. I do not think it is complete yet - the next couple of days will tell.
Hopefully it has completely dried up now.
May 7, 2008 10:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks elliot. I think it's only the "beginning" of the end. As fotw noted, expect more superdels for obama soon, then more "writing on the wall" press, then more money drying up, then more Clinton-supporting bloggers defecting, etc.
But it ain't over until Louisville1975 sings.
May 7, 2008 11:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
I was just sayin
May 7, 2008 11:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
I will take back the misplacement of the h in your name if you add a T back into mine.
:)
May 7, 2008 1:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
I see your T raise you a Q. Q's are all the rage in the threads these days, Qelliott.
May 7, 2008 2:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
I see your T raise you a Q. Q's are all the rage in the threads these days, Qelliott.
May 7, 2008 2:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
The irony of that is I have a good friend who calls me Q in reference to the tech guy from the James Bond movies.
SO I will see your Q and ... raise a beer to the next stage of the battle.
May 7, 2008 2:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Cheers to that
May 7, 2008 2:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yessssh.
I surrendered my lil bottle of Cuervo for the Cinco de Mayo festivities at a clients. We stuck it in a "desktop" plastic skeleton that we like to "decorate" for upcoming holidays. I was going to take it back the next day, but when I got there, the lil bottle was empty. No one is admitting to drinking it, but the plastic skeleton was face down on the counter...
Go figger.
When I show up for the fundraiser on June 14th, I'll buy a round of Cuervo for those souls brave enough to shoot it. (Lemon and salt optional)
May 7, 2008 6:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
I was going to write exactly the same comment on this thread, but I see that you already have, so I will just second this. I was certain that there was no way that the media would ever acknowledge Sen Clinton's long odds before the actual vote taken at the convention, but it seems that they were already turning by the middle of the evening last night.
Genghis, my good man, you were right and I was wrong. I tip my hat to you.
May 7, 2008 11:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
As one who has sought to defend Hillary on this site from sundry scurrilous attacks, I too will find it difficult to absorb the inevitable cackling, hissing and spitting from the cognescenti that the vile machinations of the deus ex Clintona have finally been vanquished by the forces of good, purity, brotherhood and love. "Ding dong the witch is dead." The job of Clinton defender did not come naturally. Obama certainly speaks to me more directly. But, I clung to the belief that the job of a President is political, and Hillary, a figure who can seem barely human at times, a cyborg secretly forged in the furnaces of political hell, seemed to fit the bill. I was also irked by the smug certitude of so many that his way was the only way and that anyone who stood in his way was opposed to the American way. After all, both candidates share virtually identical agendas. And I give the Clintons much credit for standing up to the Republican attack machine for nearly a decade. Like Krugman, I was also appalled by Obama's attempts to somehow lump the Clinton administration with the Bush administration as part of the "problem." So when I saw her regularly attacked on these boards as some sort of a right wing, racist war mongerer I was driven, somewhat reluctantly, into her corner.
But now I will agree it looks like we know where this is going. I saw a hint of that in her concession speech last night when she promised to work hard for the nominee and said the election was about more than her against Obama.
Hopefully now I will no longer be distracted by the need to defend Hillary and will be able to devote my attentions to praising Obama. He certainly shows a lot of promise. A colleague of mine said to me last night, "I've never been as excited about a candidate since McGovern." But, he hastily added, "I think the country has changed a lot since then." Let's hope so.
And by the way, what's a DINO?
May 7, 2008 10:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
Democrat In Name Only
May 7, 2008 10:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks, I was thinking Flintstones.
May 7, 2008 10:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
ha!
thanks, AG, I needed a laugh.
May 7, 2008 11:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ironically it started with the republicans. They called McCain a RINO (similar acronym) because he defied the rank and file repubs on so many issues. Hence why the media loved him and called him a Maverick.
May 7, 2008 11:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
Excellent. Welcome to Obama-land. We'll be happy to have your argument skills on our side against the Republicans who will start bashing Obama will greater vigor as this race winds down.
May 7, 2008 11:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
Does he have to bring his own pom poms?
May 8, 2008 8:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
Dude, I've been here for almost 3 months and you've had a "The end has begun" post about every two weeks. Relax, it ain't over till its over.
May 7, 2008 10:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
False. I have written exactly two blogs about "the end", this one and the one on Sunday. In some comments a week and a half ago, I claimed that May 6th would be the turning point and alluded to a blog that I planned to write, and which I wrote on Sunday.
I have one blog from just before PA arguing that Clinton couldn't win the popular vote, but I didn't declare the end of the race.
It's all there in the historical record thanks to this thing that we call the internet.
PS Still waiting for you to come over to the dark side.
May 7, 2008 11:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
Feels like they were up forever then. Obviously a testament to your intellect.
May 7, 2008 11:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think that prize belongs to Billy Glad.
May 7, 2008 12:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm bored already. Going back to HuffPo. Chimpo ! I'll miss you. Billy, you're the man but don't be so mean.
May 7, 2008 10:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
easy come easy go
May 7, 2008 11:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
dude
you should tell old guy what languages you program in...
like you say, i'm a nobody, but i've figured out that he ain't.
This dreamweaver stuff beats my brain up, and it's child play, right?
May 7, 2008 11:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
North Carolina!
May 7, 2008 10:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
Rep. Urbinato, I salute you. You are the man. Or rather, you are the small green alien.
Folks, yoders took the day off work yesterday to canvas door-to-door for our guy. Show him some love.
May 7, 2008 11:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
Also, note that I can predict the future (roughly):
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/04/north-carolina-overview-of-the.php
May 7, 2008 11:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
Dude, it's so uncool to make a prediction and then crow about it when it comes true.
May 7, 2008 11:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
I just hope that you are crowing (and totally uncool) in a couple of days based on your prediction that this will all be over soon.
Please God...
Kudos on the Fox headline. Classic.
May 7, 2008 11:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
My comment was faux-hypocritical self-deprecation. But yes, I hope that I get to continue to crow.
May 7, 2008 1:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
So then you're already uncool. Awesome.
What was the verdict from the assmbled TPMers on the shirt color?
May 7, 2008 3:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
I forget to ask. Maybe they'll see this and speak up.
May 7, 2008 4:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sending all my love Yoda! It just goes to show "millions of people calling for change" can beat back any entrenched political powers that be.
Great Work!
May 7, 2008 11:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, Yoda, thank you so much for your hard work getting out the vote in NC! And to Greg (Missouri voter) for his weeks of GOTV work in Indiana ... Obama couldn't have done it without you!
May 7, 2008 7:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
She who lives by media narrative,...
May 7, 2008 12:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's like the graffiti in the abandoned church in 28 Days Later.
"The End Is Very Fucking Nigh."
Nice to see the love-fest in the thread. Everyone taking turns riding the Magical Unity Pony. I'll pay for Billy's beer whenever he comes by.
And on the suggestion that there was hanky-panky because Lake County is substantially Hispanic, rather than saying what I think of the premise, two simple empirical points: not only is Lake County, Indiana not all that Hispanic, but Obama won the Hispanic and white votes in Illinois by fairly identical 51-47 and 50-47 margins, presumably performing at least that well in adjacent Cook County, Illinois. NW Indiana is entirely part of Chicago. No reason its voters would behave that much differently, maybe 10% lower or such.
May 7, 2008 12:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
no billy, no energy
May 7, 2008 12:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
You've always been one of the few smart ones.
May 7, 2008 8:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, please.
Damn you. If you stay away who will back me up when I'm feeling bad-tempered?
May 7, 2008 8:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
I will Bug, but I don't think I could hold a candle to the shield of Billy.
May 7, 2008 9:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
:) You're a class act, Bruce.
For a sober guy.
May 7, 2008 11:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Uh Oh! Were in trouble. There is another candidate trying to steal Obama supporters:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TI6PA4v6dZg
Too stinking funny. He is so bizzare.
May 7, 2008 12:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
That guy is a complete wackjob.
May 7, 2008 1:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sometimes endings are just beginnings.
Let's see what begins now.
Is it possible that the kitchen sink is not yet empty and the garbage incinerator will be put into play?
She's pretty relentless and there are no signs that she hasn't decided to press this to the convention.
What does she want to accomplish with this?
At some point, she's going to have to deal with the Clinton legacy. Even the appearance of bringing down the party will not be an attractive chapter.
May 7, 2008 12:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
girl....you ain't no regular here so no one but the blue guy will even acknowledge that you are even breathin....
May 7, 2008 2:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
don't dis my bff gftb
May 7, 2008 7:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Really, she's part of the in-crowd.
So that's why, I guess....
May 7, 2008 8:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Knowing that it's over, you'd think she'd use the next couple of weeks to go out on a high note, turn away from Obama and bash McCain, etc. We'll see.
May 7, 2008 6:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks to all of you for your good wishes and please forgive me for not responding to each of you individually. I feel a little badly because, after reading one wilson's fabulous concession post, I realized that he/she was so much more gracious than I was in my little announcement this morning. Forgive me, as I do congratulate Senator Obama and his supporters for what appears to be a victory in the battle for the Democratic nomination.
May 7, 2008 12:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks to you for your graciousness about it, and thanks to all the Clinton supporters who are more concerned with winning in the fall than with some MSM-fueled Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon permanent fight among our top two Democratic primary candidates.
May 7, 2008 1:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
no billy, no energy
too intellectual articleman
billy gets his point across with style
May 7, 2008 1:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Aren't you supposed to be off to HuffPo already?
May 7, 2008 1:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
shirt
i've got two computers going here
i've got my work on the big Mac screen, and little Safari windows open all over on various sites until i finally settle into the work
i hate work
i miss BIlly
i'm gone
May 7, 2008 2:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Billy Billy Billy Glad
Don't be angry don't be mad
Don't leave your minions they'll be sad
Billy Billy Billy Glad
No more staring, no more glaring
No more keeping tabs
Who's been smart, who's been bad
Where ye gone ol' Billy Glad
May 7, 2008 1:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
It is kind of drab around here without his spunk, isn't it?
May 7, 2008 1:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hm, allow me to advance the somewhat provocative thesis that he is here already and that you are addressing him in this reply.
May 7, 2008 1:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Cypher as Billy Glad...hmmmm it makes sense. His avatar is new yet he seems like a regular.
May 7, 2008 2:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
see...even talking about Billy makes this boring thread perk up..
maybe ol' Billy will have to show up
May 7, 2008 2:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Anyone recognize the avatar? If it's from an obscure sci-fi movie, that would confirm it.
May 7, 2008 2:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
A match?
May 7, 2008 2:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Excellent sleuth work, Hilarym.
Cyberpunk gives it away. Definitely Billy Glad.
May 7, 2008 2:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
But, an alter ego that supports Obama? That would take some serious discipline not to accidentally slip up.
May 7, 2008 3:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
more than you'll even know
May 7, 2008 3:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am Spartacus!
May 7, 2008 8:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Does cypher support Obama? I'm not sure about that. He mostly writes about "insiderism". Or rather, he preaches about it repeatedly, not unlike Billy's "echo chamber". And as mageduley notes, he seems to know and care a lot about TPM for a newcomer.
In any case, I wouldn't put it past Billy to support Obama in an alter ego.
May 7, 2008 3:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
If true, my hat is off to billy glad and to you for seeing through the persona.
Billy, be you absent or hiding behind another avatar, come out here, bend over, and take it like a man. You were gracklin' all over my thread the other day with all your "Obama must win IN" crap. Come forth and humble yourself.
May 7, 2008 2:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
no dignity in that, shirt...
i wouldn't if i were he, and obviously i ain't
May 7, 2008 2:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think Billy's a little too proudly intellectual to type in lower case "too intellectual articleman", like our blue colleague.
So I reject the theory that Blue Man is the estimable Mr. Glad.
Billy's just shaking off a nasty Crown Royal hangover.
May 7, 2008 3:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am not entirely convinced of the Cypher=Billy Glad hypothesis myself. I put it out there merely for public consideration so that we might mull over the evidence deliberately. That said, I would ask that you not rush to judgment here. Let the hypothesis roll around in your head for a while first. I would submit to you that the objection that you voice is scarcely insuperable, especially given that Mr Glad professes to be an academic in some sort of humanities-type discipline. Exposure to the right sort of authors can make it very easy for a mind to flit back and forth between "good" spelling/grammar and "bad."
May 7, 2008 4:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, it's Billy. You're instinct was correct. Think about it...
- avatar from sci-fi movie
- obsessive criticism of perceived TPM clique
- kinda funny but in a weird quirky way
- obsessed with Billy Glad
May 7, 2008 5:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
And I would add that I don't think that I've ever written a single thread which the tireless BG has not grackled, yet he's strangely absent from this one. In his place, we have this blue dork who won't shut up about him.
May 7, 2008 5:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Christ. I'm being called a dork by a guy with a flashing collar.
May 7, 2008 5:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm pretty sure that the first comment I saw Cypher make was, "Ahhh... Fresh avatar, fresh start" (or something to that effect). If only I could find it.
May 7, 2008 8:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
No. Grackling is shitting on a positive post about a candidate that doesn't attack his or her opponent in order to suck the positive energy out of a thread.
Your posts are mostly about yourself. They are not protected by the anti-grackling rule.
Social clubs and cliques are also fair game, whatever form they may take, i.e., in the echo chamber or in the real world.
I'll be watching you and protecting Hillary Clinton until she is no longer a candidate for President of the United States.
May 7, 2008 9:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hmm. Well you have been rather prescient as of late...
May 7, 2008 2:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
People. Billy Glad has pride. He knows how to spell. He knows how to punctuate properly. No way that he would come back as me. And no way would he call attention to himself in this way. He would consider it a kind of pornography of the intellect. Trust me.
But, Jesus ! Find a way to get him back. He sure sounded like he was done on a post yesterday.
May 7, 2008 3:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
It seems Cypher, that you can selectively choose correct capitalization and grammar at will. Crack in the persona perhaps?
May 7, 2008 3:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
dude
the question is can you selectively choose to talk write in a reasonable idiom without such convention.....?
May 7, 2008 3:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
I happen to be a dudette, Billy.
May 7, 2008 8:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Where I come from, the women are good fighters.
May 7, 2008 9:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
And where I come from, women are wise :). Ferocity without wisdom is disastrous, whether it be man or woman.
May 7, 2008 10:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
I cannot find the thread at this point, but I've already forwarded this theory previously.
May 7, 2008 5:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, that is enough to satisfy me, then. Needless to say, it would be impossible to prove the thesis one way or the other, but if you and I can independantly arrive at the same conclusion - a conclusion which rings immediately true in the ears of folks like Genghis and Mageduly - then I am given to regard the matter as established. Not that it matters, of course. :-)
May 7, 2008 6:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not sure that I actually that it's true, but I've seen some things that lead me to believe it's a strong possibility.
May 7, 2008 10:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
If blue man accuses you of being pompous, you'll know it's true. Blue man and I share the same hive mentality. We can smell pomposity.
May 7, 2008 11:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Could you rephrase the second verse a bit. It SO almost fits the theme song from M*A*S*H*.
May 7, 2008 4:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't hear it. Can you do it?
May 7, 2008 4:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Billy, if you're there. Have a laugh, if you might. So long. Blue Guy
May 7, 2008 5:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
AFT, I've never heard someone that panders as hard as he criticizes.
Well, maybe not....
:D
May 7, 2008 8:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's the lull before the storm.
May 7, 2008 8:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ok Billy,
That was stinking hilarious. Were you going for a Ben Franklin thing?
http://www.pbs.org/benfranklin/l3_wit_name.html
May 7, 2008 8:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm sorry. I can't sail with you Obamanauts, but I wish you a successful voyage.
May 7, 2008 9:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
As you sail bravely into the future, into the darkness, each one disappearing up his or her own fundamental orifice. Just look around and I'll be there.
Wherever there's a fight so hungry people can eat, I'll be there. Wherever there's a cop beating up a guy, I'll be there. I'll be in the way guys yell when they're mad - and I'll be in the way kids laugh when they're hungry an' they know when supper's ready. An' when our people eat the stuff they raise, an' live in the houses they build, why I'll be there too.
May 7, 2008 9:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's good... because Hillary may well be back at Wal-Mart.
May 7, 2008 9:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Damn it!! You're forcing me to type "LOL"... yes, that got an LOL from me.
May 7, 2008 11:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
So it appears you are saying that you reside in the backside of each and every person's lower parts?
May 7, 2008 10:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes. If you can't see me, stick your head even further up your ass.
May 7, 2008 10:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just kidding. :) I only talk like that to entertain the blue man.
May 7, 2008 10:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
So he was in it for the rought trade? I should have guessed. At first I thought he was a troll, and later just realized he was a bit shy but persistent.
May 8, 2008 2:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think of him as an artiste. Like myself, too much of an artiste at times, but an artiste nevertheless. You're not going on the Obama with the Obamanauts, are you? I'm afraid they are going to sail off the edge of the earth.
May 8, 2008 8:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
The thing I love about the Grapes of Wrath reference is that the Depression gave us a multiterm progressive Democratic hero President.
Billy, you've turned Obama into FDR!
Goodnight, and have a pleasant tomorrow.
May 7, 2008 10:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
But Billy, how will we know it’s us without our past?
And what's with the avatar? Are you fading into obscurity?
May 7, 2008 10:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ugh, I read that as "how will you know it's us without our pants?"
Time to go read a good book.
May 7, 2008 11:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Before you go..a parting song for you. In keeping with your sentiment:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sfThEk5ejO
May 7, 2008 10:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Haven't we had enough pandering to the working-class?
May 7, 2008 10:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
No.
May 7, 2008 11:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Then let the pandering continue!
May 8, 2008 2:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
Good night. And good luck.
May 7, 2008 9:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
When you write that Billy Glad, unlike a certain buffonish and former classmate of mine turned broadcaster, you do justice to the memory of the great Edward R. Murrow.
May 7, 2008 9:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
There are many times where I appreciate the topics that Olbermann takes on, usually because they're being ignored by everyone else on television, but I've never really liked his Murrow impression. He just doesn't quite sell it.
May 7, 2008 10:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sure, he is neither the intellectual nor the journalist that Murrow was-- but we're also living in a circle of hell much lower than the one Murrow lived in. I don't think he'd object to be called a buffoon, at least compared with Murrow. Did you see his interview with Moyers? He basically agreed with you-- his point was that he looked around, and no one else was speaking up, so he decided to.
May 7, 2008 11:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
We just wanted to say goodnight to elliotness and allsburg.
May 7, 2008 10:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm sorry the blue guy is leaving.
He's witty.
It looks like Hillary will continue. I'm considering donating because she's in debt.
Obama was a good candidate when he started. Running against Clinton made him into a better candidate. In visible ways, she taught him. I hope he's appreciative.
May 8, 2008 12:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
I don't think that we've seen the last of BG (blue guy) or BG (billy glad).
May 8, 2008 1:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
You have a beautiful mind.
May 8, 2008 9:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hey, blue dude, why are you going? What's at HuffPo that's more important than TPM?
Too bad.
My avatar too comes from sci-fi world -- the fantasy side.
Almost the whole thread is dedicated to blue dude expressing love for billy young connor glad.
I'm jealous. I looked good posting next to blue dude in my blue dress. Now I'll have to shed.
Hillary Clinton staying in race is not a problemo. Runs an issue based campaign -- I hope she will.
May 8, 2008 2:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
The problem is there's not much left to say now. I notice Josh is taking a vacation, too.
May 8, 2008 7:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
He had a post in the Cafe yesterday.
Maybe his wife is having a baby.
May 8, 2008 7:38 AM | Reply | Permalink