A dream... flying away
I recently blogged talking about how we will need a real rail system to cover the country to allow the country stay as a county.
The blog got a mere 18 recommends, which actually isn't too bad for these larger issue posts. (It pales to the 101 recommends I received for a blog discussing how there was, in my view, a set of misplace priorities of what the editors thought was important news. As always, articleman's rules seem to apply, but that's a different topic.)
Events are running quite rapid now -- perhaps more rapid that typical political junkies are used to. The collapse of the airline system, as we know it, is probably neigh. I give it about 18 months tops. In other words, when the numbers of calendar year 2008 and 2009 are on, it will be clear that airplane travel won't be for everyone.
As further evidence of that, I offer the following news item, wherein United Airlines is going to make you stay in your destination longer. I suspect people will in the near term go back to buying split tickets -- and perhaps a spontaneous marketplace will form where some clever company will match up two people between two cities and they can share their split tickets somehow, allowing each to avoid the minimum stay.
The only problem with that scheme is the TSA and their strict rules about who holds a ticket and who gets on the plane. This isn't the airports we knew from the 1980s...
If you want to see an era when airline travel was cool, I suggest looking at CATCH ME IF YOU CAN.
I suggest our children will think about any travel via airline in a similar manner. Even the lack of comfort in those cylindrical cattle cars will seem luxurious for people who can't get from city to city.
It's time to make a rapid commitment to a true national rail system. It's time to let the candidates know this year that this project needs to be undertaken now.
And don't let the GOP tell you it has to be privatized (which they are already gearing up to do).
The blog got a mere 18 recommends, which actually isn't too bad for these larger issue posts. (It pales to the 101 recommends I received for a blog discussing how there was, in my view, a set of misplace priorities of what the editors thought was important news. As always, articleman's rules seem to apply, but that's a different topic.)
Events are running quite rapid now -- perhaps more rapid that typical political junkies are used to. The collapse of the airline system, as we know it, is probably neigh. I give it about 18 months tops. In other words, when the numbers of calendar year 2008 and 2009 are on, it will be clear that airplane travel won't be for everyone.
As further evidence of that, I offer the following news item, wherein United Airlines is going to make you stay in your destination longer. I suspect people will in the near term go back to buying split tickets -- and perhaps a spontaneous marketplace will form where some clever company will match up two people between two cities and they can share their split tickets somehow, allowing each to avoid the minimum stay.
The only problem with that scheme is the TSA and their strict rules about who holds a ticket and who gets on the plane. This isn't the airports we knew from the 1980s...
If you want to see an era when airline travel was cool, I suggest looking at CATCH ME IF YOU CAN.
I suggest our children will think about any travel via airline in a similar manner. Even the lack of comfort in those cylindrical cattle cars will seem luxurious for people who can't get from city to city.
It's time to make a rapid commitment to a true national rail system. It's time to let the candidates know this year that this project needs to be undertaken now.
And don't let the GOP tell you it has to be privatized (which they are already gearing up to do).
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Yes, while I totally agree with your stance on a rail system, I personally have a different view on the matter of air travel and it is troubling for me.
I live on the Big Island of Hawaii and I have some family here but more family on the mainland. While rail travel is great, it doesn't apply to me personally. I do fully support rail travel as an alternative and even a primary travel system on the mainland, it is just a little different perspective from here.
June 21, 2008 5:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
Recommended.
We took our first train trip last year, and it was great. The problem isn't with the long-haul runs out of Chicago to the west coast, but with the feeder lines that connect all the smaller markets and towns. We stood out in the middle of nowhere in Pennsylvania to get on a train to Pittsburgh, and that was a fine trip. But the connection in P-burgh (and overnighter) to Chicago depended on the train out of DC and that was almost 4 hours late.
But the "Empire Builder" from Chicago to Seattle and Portland was great.
We subsidize the interstate highway system, which was originally conceived as a military asset and is now hostage to the trucking industry and the inefficient automobile, both of which use way too much petroleum. But the rail system in between all those little towns it used to connect has been gutted and sold off. Air travel has also been subsidized in ways, including the necessity of having a big FAA bureaucracy (costly to the taxpayers), and various tax incentives to builders of airports.
Despite all the public taxpayer subsidies, though, the airlines are losing money because of energy costs.
I've felt for a long time -- moreso since the trip out west last spring -- that from an energy conservation and even a security standpoint, we need to rebuild (or at least expand) a system of rail that can move freight more economically per mile, and can give the traveler more options beyond the awful experience of air travel, or the butt-numbing and expensive option of road travel.
But it will take federal subsidies, and the trucking and highway and airline lobbies are deeply entrenched, and the only way to overcome that is to have this conversation out in the open and get in before the public. Freight has always been more profitable than passenger train trips, but a combination of light and high-speed lines to fill in the poor choice of routes, especially in the east, would help to attract more ridership. Right now, for instance, if I want to go to New Orleans or Florida from Pennsylvania, I still have to book an overnight train to Chicago, and then head south.
Not a real attractive option, and still too expensive.
June 21, 2008 9:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
Passenger rail outside the Northeast Corridor (the lines Amtrak owns from Washington D.C. to Boston) is typically done on freight rails, which give priority to (duh!) freight trains. That often explains the long delays for Amtrak trains. Even the Northeast Corridor trains have their share of problems.
Improving our rail infrastructure will be a major capital investment. I strongly support it, but it will mean laying much new track, and likely trying to get right of way in certain areas. An added benefit is that such infrastructure work can provide good jobs for many workers whose jobs have been "outsourced". The sooner we get started, the better.
June 21, 2008 9:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
When I lived in Northern California, I never took a train. I'm not even sure there were any passenger trains, and the lines only had a single track. Train travel was simply not something people did. I remember seeing abandoned railroad tracks up in the mountains, unused, rusty, bent out of shape, overgrown.
Now I'm in Germany and travel by train regularly, both short and longer distance. Many people going to town take the train - it's not much slower than a car, you can easily go downtown, don't have to worry about parking, and it's very easy to drink and not drive. The trains are clean and on time, although that bit may be somewhat specifically German.
My boss refuses to go by car on business trips within Germany. On a train he can use his laptop and actually get some work done - not possible when he's driving. Heavy travelers can purchase a flat rate pass.
Trains are again becoming important for medium distance travel (say several hundred miles). High speed trains are giving airplanes a run for the money - the actual time spent on a train vs. on a plane is longer, but there is much less time wasted. You don't need to get to and from an airport, you don't need to spend much time waiting, and the whole experience is a lot less stressful and much more comfortable (the ICEs are surprisingly smooth and quiet).
In short, like the 19th century, the 21st might again be the century of the train.
June 21, 2008 9:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
And that is another reason that jobs in America are going away -no infrastructure. It's the economy stupid because we've been stupid, and continue to be stupid. But why create an infrastructure here when we can do it over and over and over in Iraq? BTW, have we given the Iraqis a health care package yet? I think it's in McCain's platform. Let's get on that.
June 21, 2008 1:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've been saying this myself for some time.
Rail also brings multiple benefits easily seen by anyone with even a modest amount of vision. Benefits such as good (high value-additive) jobs doing the construction of a high speed passenger rail infrastructure distinct from freight lines, building the rolling stock, building or refitting the stations, and operating the system. None of these are easily offshored, by the way, and the "ripple effects" from the creation of those good jobs will also benefit society as a whole in easily foreseeable ways.
Fuel consumption per passenger mile is likely to be quite good, relative to both air and road travel. Going downtown to downtown rather than needing a cab or shuttle ride to get into a central city area, and not having to slog through Homeland Security Theater are also major pluses for intercity travelers.
One thing missing even from the comments about dedicated lines is placing them in areas where external events, such as winter storms or the floods the Midwest is currently experiencing, will not stop train traffic - this means locating them on high enough ground to be above swollen rivers and running plow-fronted trains through during winters in heavy snow areas.
Urban areas also will benefit from light surface rail, and many of the same benefits of intercity passenger rail will also apply. Here, also, a surcharge on monthly parking contracts in downtown areas could be added to help subsidize the construction and operation, although gas prices themselves are increasingly driving people to public transit.
Smarter is better...
June 21, 2008 10:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
I hope we will have that rail system and I hope it will not be privatized.
I was in Salt Lake City for skiing over last Christmas and noticed that they have continued to expand their intracity rail system. A great way to get around the city. Hopefully, it will go all they way up to some of their ski slopes someday. I know DC is easier to get around on rail than in a car.
I cannot see how expanding and laying down lines or revamping the old lines and putting in service is bad for us. The only difference is that it won't ever be as fast as a plane.
June 21, 2008 1:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's not entirely true. For coast to coast travel, you're right, planes are not likely to be overtaken in terms of speed anytime soon. But for shorter trips (say Boston to NYC), train can be faster. See my above post why. As an example, a trip from London to Paris is now faster by train (Eurostar) than by plane.
June 21, 2008 2:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Coast to coast is what I was bemoaning. I live on one and my family on the other. Flying is faster than 3 days (as currently with overnighter in ChiTown)
June 21, 2008 6:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Explain to your family why they urgently need to move :)
The coast to coast distance is some 3,000 miles. With high speed rail going at 200mph, this would take 15 hours. This isn't possible today but entirely achievable with current technology. Heck, the French can do it ;) (The TGV trains run at 200mph today, and they're not the fastest in the world.) Maybe high speed rail would be a good project for the new American century.
Airplanes are going to remain important for intercontinental travel. There is no other option for passenger travel that comes even close today. For shorter distances, planes are likely to become less important because they'll be too expensive. More airlines are going to merge or go bust.
The thing about trains is that weight isn't a critical concern, and neither is space. Maybe Orient Express style travel is going to become popular again.
June 21, 2008 7:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
I very much doubt that my Oregon family will move east. They have a deep-seated distrust of the east coast. Plus, Mr.Cricket4's family's in WA. Pretty sure they are not moving this way either.
I look forward to train travels, although employers' attitudes with regard to time-off will also have to change if the speed of air travel is taken out of the equation. Hey, maybe as a nation we will learn to look at time differently instead of hurrying all the time and wanting immediate gratification.
June 21, 2008 8:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
I guess genetics does not account for your lack of distrust of the East Coast then :)
Looking into the past is instructive. Some 150 years ago, it took several months to get from the East Coast to "Oregon". And yet it wasn't the end of the world. Therefore I feel reasonably justified in predicting that if it once again takes more than six hours to travel between coasts, it won't be the end of the world either.
I don't actually expect air travel to disappear anytime soon. But it might get expensive (or rather, it will). In the short term, it'll be painful. In the long term, people will adjust.
June 21, 2008 8:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Really relevant post, Clearthinker.
It was 139 years ago (to be precise) when the last spike was driven that linked the Union Pacific RR lines to those of the Central Pacific, which completed a national RR network that ensured both passenger and freight routes north/south and east/west. For the next 75-100 years, it was possible to go almost anywhere, from anywhere in this country by train (with more than one scheduling option in any given day). And, until parallel highway construction, which began in the 20's, finally overwhelmed rail access by the 60's, fast, efficient shipping by rail was a given.
My father was a believer who became a railroad executive, who then spent his entire career trying to: a) save existing passenger and freight rail service; and b) modernize and extend it, by lobbying for the development of European/tech equipment and expanding local mass transit. To these ends he testified innumerable times over the years in House and Senate hearings to, as he put it: "increasingly empty rooms where yawns could be heard over the microphones." He despaired as line after line was torn up to create yet another jogging greenway, and found grim humor in the idea of an extendable arm that could mounted on a car to stamp traffic-jamming trucks with the slogan:"Ship by rail."
It is, of course, not yet too late to see America (or part of America) by rail. The San Francisco Zephyr, for example, has a wonderful route east that allows a 2day/2night time-out from that frenetic, mutli-tasking pace we impose on ourselves. Try it. Emerge from a comfortable Pullman room to enjoy a fairly sophisticated meal in the dining car. And, from there, move forward, to a skylit bubble car -- where it is possible to lounge in comfort while passing through the Sierra Nevada and the salt flats of Utah through the canyons of Colorado down into the sparkle of Denver; and, from there, through the lush farmland of Iowa to cross the Mississippi into Illinois, to end in downtown Chicago. There, switch trains to The Capital Limited and proceed on to Washington.
There are other great runs. An enjoyable short one is to get on the train in New York, watch the sunset as the train parallels the Hudson River, and then wake up-- after a blissful night's sleep rocked by the rhythmic sound of the wheels on the tracks -- to discover, the next morning, that you have arrived in Montreal. City center to city center. No shuttles from outlying parking lots, no endless delays, no cancelled flights, and elbow room to spare.
It is a sorrow to me that there are children today who have never set foot on a train. But maybe, with the crippling cost of gasoline, they will get their chance, at least by the time they have children if their own.
Moral of the story: whenever possible, travel and "ship by rail."
June 21, 2008 1:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Right there with you! I wish flying was as cool as Catch Me if You Can, and I wish travel by rail was as cool as The Natural (or really any old-school baseball movie).
And, I rec'd your railroad post a lot - like, three times. I doubt they all took, but I tried to boost it up there.
The fact is, we HAVE to find a way to make long distance travel more efficient and inexpensive because it just doesn't make sense to roll out the old station wagon a la the Griswolds for a cross country trip anymore. We're reaching a point where it's almost cheaper to fly than to drive, but it's such a complete hassle that most people are opting to just stay home. This country NEEDS tourism dollars - I can't see the tourist and hotel industries sitting by while the airlines play with their livelihoods much longer...
June 21, 2008 1:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
What is most important (After physically building the network) is that there is sufficient competition between companies on the train lines. One of the reasons that airlines have become cheaper over the last few decades is that the competition for local commuter flights has been very high. Outside of the New York City area, with NJ Transit, PATH, MetroNorth etc, it's pretty much all Amtrak all the way. With that kind of monopoly there's no incentive for any sort of expansion, let alone the incentive for cheaper tickets that will make rail travel worth while.
June 21, 2008 2:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
There's a clever way to work The Darjeeling Limited into the discussion here. When I find it, I'll be back.
Until then, rec'd!
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/06/cheryl-crist.php
June 21, 2008 2:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't know how many of you read Josh's post about Wolfson being an "aerophobe" and driving across the country during the campaign. Josh said he used to be an aerophobe as well.
As for me, I wasn't one before, but I am now. I won't do it. It's not a fear of flying, or as the main character said on My Name is Earl, "I'm not afraid of flying. I'm afraid of crashing. And dying."
But I'm not. For me, it's more of a claustrophobia thing, compounded by being a relatively large person and a smoker to boot. The planes are now nearly always full, the vibes are too intense, and dogs and automatic weapons in the airports don't help much either.
And of course, I remember the glory days of the 80's, when it was easier than taking the bus for a short flight. Buy your ticket there and board your half-empty plane in a matter of minutes. and I'm pretty sure I remember smoking in the earliest times.
June 21, 2008 6:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
If there were good high speed rail lines across the US, it would encourage the expansion (or even creation) of cities in flyover country. That might not be a bad thing.
June 21, 2008 7:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
I see that some of this is already happening:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACELA_Express
Interesting that Amtrak had to buy the equipment from Canadian and European corporations. I guess the US car companies did a good job of killing the US rail industry.
June 21, 2008 7:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
I took my kids to France last year to visit old friends. We were there for three weeks and never were in a car once. It was bus, metro, train, bicycle, or foot.
We went frrom Paris to Cap Ferrat on the Atlantic Coast. We took a fast train with hundreds of other families heading out for their beach holiday. I remember thinking of all the times we went to the Outer Banks in our car, stuck behind all the other cars, loaded down with stuff; all on their way to the beach. I never dreamed you could go to the beach on a train!
We took bikes with us, and a minimal amount of stuff. Once we got there, we walked to the boat ferry (called a Pinass -- pronounced penis -- no kidding) and then walked the rest of the way to our rental.
We did a lot more walking than I ever did at the Outer Banks, but it was glorious and fun.
We really give up alot here in the US for our "freedom" to drive where ever we want. Did you know that no one in Fance even knows what "car-pool" means? There is no equivalent.
Soccer moms? Kids walk to the nearby field and play together -- no signing up; no car-pooling; no pot-luck dinners.
We are so screwed
June 21, 2008 8:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Anything I can do to avoid ever going to an airport again will make me happy.
June 21, 2008 10:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
My family was po' folk, so loading up the car and hitting up Motel 6 was always cheaper than hopping a flight to our destination. The first time I was ever in an airplane was as pilot, on my 16th birthday where I was given an intro flight lesson as a present.
Rail or bus travel has always been more interesting, to me. When traveling, isn't the journey part of the fun?
June 21, 2008 11:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm a big fan of train travel, but I'd like to hear a more realistic analysis. Not the standard "airplanes & cars bad" and "trains good" refrain.
1. More commuter rail - Great. Currently underrepresented in most urban areas. Energy efficient. Reduces traffic.
2. More rail for popular routes - Great, but we already have it. There is one obvious high traffic long distance route in this country--Boston, NY, DC. It already has train service. That service should be cheaper and faster, but the main reason it's not cheaper is because these profitable routes support low-traffic routes (see 3). There are some other routes that could work, e.g. LA-SF, but not many.
3. More rail for non-popular routes. Not great. Empty trains = inefficient transportation.
4. More rail for long distance routes. Not great. A four hour train ride can compete with air. A 20 hour train ride cannot. How many popular destinations are there between NY and Chicago? None. You could detour to Philly, but there's already a train there from NY. Even if trains become cheaper and faster, how many people will train from Chicago to NY when they could fly in a fraction of the time? Ergo, NY-Chicago is and will always be a non-popular train route. Empty trains = inefficient transportation. See 3.
The Europe comparisons are facile. Europe is a lot denser than the US. You might take a train from London to Paris or Paris to Frankfurt or Frankfurt to Berlin or Berlin to Warsaw. You'd be nuts to take a train from London to Warsaw.
Conclusion: Let's put more money into trains, but let's aim to create popular and efficient train routes and give up the dream of adopting European-style train transportation until there are a lot more people here.
June 22, 2008 12:24 AM | Reply | Permalink