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Analysis: Obama electoral edge vs. McCain
Early electoral analysis by Chuck Todd:
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/06/05/1115257.aspx
And this being the second official day of the general election, now's as good a time as any to see where we stand in the McCain vs. Obama race.Base Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, MD, MA, NY, RI, VT (153 electoral votes)
While both McCain and Obama get to 200 when adding up their base and lean states, it’s clear to see that Obama has an early edge with the map. Not only does he have a stronger base than McCain does (153 votes vs. 116), but he also has more potential pick-up opportunities.
Lean Obama: ME, NJ, MN, OR, WA (47 votes)
Toss-up: CO, FL, IA, MI, NV, NM, NH, OH, PA, VA, WI (138 votes)
Lean McCain: AR, GA, IN, LA, MS, MO, MT, NE, NC, ND (84 votes)
Base McCain: AL, AK, AZ, ID, KS, KY, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY (116 votes)
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/06/05/1115257.aspx
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Georgia and Mississippi are not leaners in any way shape or form. They are as solidly Republican as Texas.
I know it doesn't change the math so much but it does make me question Chuck Todd's thought process.
June 5, 2008 12:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
We don't know what the voter turnout will be in each state. We don't know what kind of voter register operation is or will be on the ground. So we can't saw for certain that Georgia or Mississippi will do one thing or another.
June 5, 2008 3:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
By the way, Chuck Todd is the shit! I used to watch him on during the brief windows of political news by Hotline during Washington Journal on C-SPAN.
June 5, 2008 3:54 PM | Reply | Permalink