« Reagan The Appeaser (take 2) essential ammo for confronting conservative crap. | Slouch's Blog | HERE'S the script for getting this election back on track... »
Report from On The Ground in Montana...
It's a stunningly beautiful day here in Big Sky Country. I'd always thought there were absolutely no advantages to a June primary until today, when I voted behind an elderly gentleman on crutches who would have had a VERY hard time making it to the polls in February. You learn something new every day.
As of yesterday, an estimated 78,000 absentee ballots had been returned to the Montana's office of Secretary of State. The S.O.S. predicts 35% of '08 primary ballots could be absentee. Thats 3 times the absentee ballots cast in the 2004 primary. Montana has registered over 32,000 new voters sine the 2004 cycle.
Turnout predictions are running at around 47%, unheard of for Montana's late primary. In Cascade County, one of the states largest, they have already registered a higher turnout than they had for the entire 2006 primary.
Montana has an open primary where anyone can choose to vote for any party, but voters CANNOT vote both ballots. This means Operation Chaos voters will have to sacrifice voting for contested Republican state races if they use their vote for the Democratic primary.
Races O.C. voters would not be able to weigh in on:
There are 6 candidates jockeying for the chance to take on Senator Max Baucus.
There is a VERY vigorous and vocal group of Ron Paul activists who are REALLY trying to get him across the finish line ahead of McCain. This is not out of the question; Paul came in second in Montana's GOP Caucus, ahead of both McCain and Huckabee (Romney won). Yesterday someone parked an old Blaser covered in Ron Paul signs right outside the door of the TV station I work for with signs indicating the media were ignoring the other candidate for POTUS.
Montana's lone representative, Republican Denny Rehberg, is unopposed on the GOP side.
There is a pretty heated contest for the GOP nomination for state AG.
*******
I hope to have more info as the day goes on. Please consider recommending this post so I can update it later. Thanks.
As of yesterday, an estimated 78,000 absentee ballots had been returned to the Montana's office of Secretary of State. The S.O.S. predicts 35% of '08 primary ballots could be absentee. Thats 3 times the absentee ballots cast in the 2004 primary. Montana has registered over 32,000 new voters sine the 2004 cycle.
Turnout predictions are running at around 47%, unheard of for Montana's late primary. In Cascade County, one of the states largest, they have already registered a higher turnout than they had for the entire 2006 primary.
Montana has an open primary where anyone can choose to vote for any party, but voters CANNOT vote both ballots. This means Operation Chaos voters will have to sacrifice voting for contested Republican state races if they use their vote for the Democratic primary.
Races O.C. voters would not be able to weigh in on:
There are 6 candidates jockeying for the chance to take on Senator Max Baucus.
There is a VERY vigorous and vocal group of Ron Paul activists who are REALLY trying to get him across the finish line ahead of McCain. This is not out of the question; Paul came in second in Montana's GOP Caucus, ahead of both McCain and Huckabee (Romney won). Yesterday someone parked an old Blaser covered in Ron Paul signs right outside the door of the TV station I work for with signs indicating the media were ignoring the other candidate for POTUS.
Montana's lone representative, Republican Denny Rehberg, is unopposed on the GOP side.
There is a pretty heated contest for the GOP nomination for state AG.
*******
I hope to have more info as the day goes on. Please consider recommending this post so I can update it later. Thanks.
Advertisement
Consider it recommended. Thanks for the street-level view. Please do keep it up.
June 3, 2008 12:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for the on the ground insight. :)
June 3, 2008 12:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Over in EC, Eric Kleefield links to this article that claims the winner of Montana's primary will immediately gain 5 of Montana's 8 Superdelegates.
The five un-declared MT SDs are Senator Baucus, Senator Tester, Gov. Schweitzer, and 2 MT Democratic Party chairs, Dennis McDonald and Margaret Campbell.
Campbell actually already endorsed Senator Obama, but had to retract her endorsement because party rules prohibit her endorsement during a contested primary.
Montana's other 3 SDs, Jean Lemire Dahlman, John Melcher, and Ed Tinsley, have already endorsed Senator Obmama.
June 3, 2008 1:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
That would be Senator Obama, not Senator Obmama.
June 3, 2008 1:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
my boy (16 months old) has just started repeating lots of words.
obama is one of his favorite words now.
but sometimes it does kindof come out like o'mama
June 3, 2008 1:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hear Schweitzer is going to be appearing at the Wilma tonight for the Obama celebration. That is the place to be in Missoula tonight, for sure.
June 3, 2008 1:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Senator Clinton's party is at The Shack.
June 3, 2008 5:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here is a link to a darn good analysis of the Montana political landscape from China's Xinhua news service of all places.
The article is pretty much Politico verbatim, but I was a bit surprised to find it in Xinhua.
A call to the Missoula Obama office asking about a "victory" party got a slightly chilly response. I was explicitly told it is not a victory party, but an Election Watch party tonight.
June 3, 2008 2:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
The office might be calling it a watch party, but the mood will be a little above and beyond what that implies (to say the least!)
June 3, 2008 3:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
**I can't WAIT to get my beer on!
June 3, 2008 7:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here is another link to a High Country News article on the leader of the Democratic Party in Montana, Dennis McDonald.
http://www.hcn.org/servlets/hcn.Article?article_id=17343
Reading the whole article it is clear that Mr. McDonald subscribes fully to the "whole state" strategy (compared to the 50-state strategy) as he has worked to establish grassroots Democratic organizations in every county of the state. When he began, 18 counties had no Democratic organization and some had not had any since FDR. Sounds like a good man to have on the ground in Montana.
June 3, 2008 5:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for keeping us updated. I made some calls for Obama to Montana, and people were incredibly nice. Montana's one of the few states in the country I've never been to, but I want to correct that soon!
June 3, 2008 3:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Where is the update?
June 3, 2008 4:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah?!!
I feel like I put my "Recommended Token" in the coin slot, but no can of Coke came out.
Maybe the machine thinks I'm from a Caucus state or something?
June 3, 2008 5:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry,
What more are you looking for?
June 3, 2008 5:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
He wants a Coke.
June 3, 2008 7:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
My mom was at the primary in Butte today and said she has never seen so many people at a primary ever. They come from all over Silverbow county encompasses Whitehall, Rocker, and a bunch of small towns in Western Montana. I might also add that to a person my family is voting for Barack Obama, in Montana, something I never thought I would see in my life! They are excited and you never know Montana has a democratic governor and they are feeling as if Montana will go blue this fall. Think of that, George Bush turns Montana Blue. It hasn't voted blue in 25 or 30 years. Unbelievably exciting.
June 3, 2008 4:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is giving me "Chicken Skin" (Goose Bumps)
June 3, 2008 4:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Senator Tester just confirmed that there will be an endorsement from as least some of the Montana Superdelegates tonight after the polls close.
Senator Tester, to MSNBC's David Shuster:
"We're probably going to do the endorsement after the election is called tonight in Montana..."
We can only guess who Tester means when he says "we," but other press rumblings seem to suggest the remainder of Montana's Supers are waiting to endorse en masse. Were the primary to go to Senator Obama as expected, that gives him all 8 of Montana's Supers.
At least one source has suggested that those same uncommitted Supers will endorse the winner of the primary. If Senator Clinton comes out on top tonight and this does happen, she'd gain 5 Supers.
Montana Democrats will elect their delegates this Sunday.
June 3, 2008 5:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm literally choking back tears right now.
My mother just called me from the dead center of Montana.
She told me my grandmother, who's 84 and requires dialysis twice a week, got out today and voted in a PRIMARY election.
Where they live in Central Montana, this probably means driving nearly 100 miles round trip to get to a polling place. In her case, it means finding someone else to drive her to do something no one expected her to do.
She voted Obama.
My mom told me to get my kids to a TV tonight (we don't have one,) because this is going to be a night to remember.
June 3, 2008 5:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
As Spock from Star Trek would say may your Grandmother live very Long and Prosper always.
She is a true GEM!!!
June 4, 2008 3:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
Not sure who they are quoting, but our news department is reporting that "Senior Campaign Officials" are saying that Senator Clinton's staff will be let go and paid through June 15.
June 3, 2008 5:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
God Bless your grandmother. We should all be humbled by her.
June 3, 2008 6:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Montana is a jewel in many ways, but the great people there surpass it's magnificent natural beauty, as evidenced by Slouch's story of an 84 yr old Grandmother making a supreme effort to vote.
WOW! I too am choking back tears.....and my heart is overflowing with hope for our future as Americans- both red and blue!
June 3, 2008 7:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Greetings from Helena! Voting was brisk when I was at my polling place at 7:30 this morning, and the parking lot was packed when I went by on my way home from work. Local primaries were pretty hot, but the Presidential primary seems to be the prime mover. A friend in the SOS office said they were set for a heavy turnout and a late night.
Your grandmother is a testament to the spirit of our great state, and is a shining example of our strong feeling of civic responsibility and patriotism.
We're setting up the TV trays and pulling up the chairs for the show.
Democracy in action. The BEST reality TV!
June 3, 2008 8:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for the Queen City street-level view!
30 minutes before polls close, a quick check at 2 polling points in Missoula showed pretty heavy traffic at both.
Results start coming soon.
I'll be at the Obama Election Watch party (No wireless, so no blogging from there.) If this one looks tight I'll make my way back to the newsroom later for results.
June 3, 2008 9:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hmmm. Just was watching Mrs. Clinton's speech. South Dakota ended the process? I saw the ticker in the corner saying it was still 26 minutes until our polls close. I'm not trying to be snarky. Just, well, ouch.
Now on to Obama's speech!
June 3, 2008 9:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
What? No report from the ground in South Dakota? Why not????
June 3, 2008 11:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Probably because I don't live there.
June 3, 2008 11:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
So obviously the news of the night has moved beyond the Montana primary, and there's really nothing more for me to add here.
I'm going to bed. Tonight will be one of the first nights I've slept well in months.
June 3, 2008 11:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
G'night, Slouch. Thanks for all the poop!
June 4, 2008 1:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks, Slouch. I now feel like I got my Coke, and it was cold and bubbly.
Good job, and thanks for the not-slouchy updating.
June 4, 2008 4:18 AM | Reply | Permalink