Thinking about the worst case scenario for November
We all, Clinton and Obama supporters alike, understand the radicalized disappointment welling up among Clinton supporters—the feeling of being cheated (whether one agrees with the premise or not, the genuine felt loss of having the only serious woman candidate for president be defeated by the narrowest of margins. It is apparent from listening to Clinton supporters that there—at least at present—is a strong desire for some sort of revenge or, at the minimum, a feeling that they could not possibly pull a lever (or touch a Diebold screen—yikes!) for the “man” who eliminated their candidate and dashed their hopes. And so we find sensational proclamations of staying home in November or, worse, for voting for the enemy.
If there is any meat to that sentiment, or if the McCain camp has any smarts whatsoever, what I perceive to be the worst-case scenario for the Democrats this fall is that John McCain selects a woman for his VP. Even better—and there are signs!—that Condi Rice is waiting expectantly in the wings, meaning that McCain can put a woman and an African American on the ticket. It’s no secret that many Clinton supporters and Obama supporters are behind their respective candidates precisely or at least primarily because their candidate shares their primary social identity. Witness the incredible numbers of blacks supporting Obama, especially in the South, and the rhetoric of women’s groups (excluding NARAL) around the Clinton campaign. Such is the age of identity politics.
Yet if identity politics are truly having such tremendous pull in this remarkable 2008 election, whose to say that Democrats alone can capitalize on it? McCain could very well tap into the bitterness of the Clintonites through smartly nominating a woman and, if Obama fails to do the same (though signs are that leading contenders—Sebelius and McCaskill—simply don’t pull in the numbers at present in places like Pennsylvania), what will prevent disaffected Clinton supporters from rationalizing a McCain vote with “I at least still get to pull the lever for a woman in the White House if I vote for McCain?”
Like I said, worst case scenario.
Some will do as you fear. How many is anyone's guess. A lot will depend on what happens next. I don't disrespect women, and therefore doubt that masses of Hillary supporters will vote Republican if a woman is on the GOP ticket simply because they want to vote for a woman. I think most people are far more levelheaded than that. But in what promises to be a close election, any defections are a concern.
I have a far worse "worst case". Suppose more devastating information about the Obamas comes out regarding their basic attitudes about race. Suppose we discover that they are not who they say they are. Suppose large numbers of voters develop serious doubts about exactly what the truth is. Suppose the average American can begin to imagine the Obamas sitting in that congregation at Trinity church approving the kind of racist rhetoric that we currently dismiss as belonging not to the Obamas but just to others in their church. Suppose we find ourselves with a much more flawed candidate than we believed.
June 3, 2008 2:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Suppose you come up with an actual point instead of a bunch of hilariously unlikely hypotheticals?
June 3, 2008 4:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's not really fair--the whole post is about hypotheticals. Hypotheticals are all we have when speaking about uncertain future variables, though I am not sure I would concede that this is worse than what I have proposed. Would you rather feel you were deceived or robbed? Betrayed by Obama or betrayed by your fellow Democrats? Tough to choose.
June 4, 2008 12:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
I hope McCain does pick Rice. Then people can vote for a woman, a black person, and a war criminal, all with one vote.
June 3, 2008 4:54 PM | Reply | Permalink