Understanding the Clintonista mindset at this point
I fired up my computer this morning to be confronted with the news that Clinton is STILL trying to poach superdelegates from Obama. In spite of all the calls for her to drop out, in spite of all the marshaling of facts and figures, she will not concede. I've felt for weeks now that she is very likely to take this fight all the way to the convention, and that feeling is growing stronger, not weaker, as time goes by.
Why are Clinton and her diehard supporters refusing to give up in the face of impossible odds?
I was e-mailing with a friend about some of the nuttier-seeming pro-Hillary protesters at the RBC meeting. My friend (an Obama supporter like myeslf) made this observation:
There are some women who I think see Hill's run as vindication for every wrong perpetrated against them in their work and personal lives. [...] So imagine you were a hard working woman who was skilled at your job. Over and over you get turned down for the promotion that is given to some backslapping guy who talks about sports and plays golf with the muckity-mucks. Your husband leaves you after the youngest kid turns 18 years for a woman 20 years your junior. Yeah, I'd be bitter too.
I can understand how this kind of experience would strongly shape a person's outlook. But could this alone create the kind of seeming blind fervor of the most devout Clintonistas? I think that's part of what's going on, but not the whole story.
(NOTE: I use the term "Clintonistas" as a pithy but neutral descriptor for Clinton supporters, just as some call Obama supporters "Obamanauts". Also, it was short enough to fit nicely into the title field of this diary. I mean no disrespect by it.)
It occurred to me today that there is a traditional protocol in male-dominated organizations and subcultures about what happens when a contest concludes. It's expected that losers will gracefully acknowledge winners, and basically fall in line and respect the hierarchy. Complaining about the outcome of a competition is strongly scorned -- "There's no crying in baseball", etc. The idea is that one may nurse one's private grudges and emotional bruises, but bad feelings should be channeled into future rounds of competition, rather than aired publicly and used to whip up resentment and stoke division within the ranks.
One can argue about whether this is good or bad (and of course it isn't always strictly observed), but I do think it's the dominant ethic in male hierarchies. It's a form of emotional repression, and it's part of what has enabled men to form -- for better or worse -- highly disciplined, rank-oriented groups, such as sports teams and military units, in which leaders give orders and subordinates obey them with a minimum of questioning and dispute.
So when people say that it's time for Clinton to step aside and get behind the nominee, this is really standard rhetoric for this stage of the process -- it's what runner-up male competitors have been told in situations like this since the beginning of time.
But perhaps to Clinton and some of her diehard female supporters, the calls for her to bow out sound like something else -- namely, men telling a woman to sit down and shut up. I can understand why this would irritate women who have dealt with that sort of thing for decades... and in fact it may feel to some like accepting this outcome would be the ultimate betrayal of deeply-held feminist convictions.
Of course there has been, and still is, real sexism directed against Clinton. But I think some of her supporters are mistakenly interpreting as sexism what is, for the most part, the normal appeal for unity at this point in the election cycle.
This is particularly true for those who do not have a lot of good, objective information about the rules and details of the primary process. Case in point: ABC's Jake Tapper blogged over the weekend that some of the protesters at the RBC meeting mistakenly believed that if the FL and MI delegates had been granted full votes, Hillary would gain the lead in the delegate count. In reality, of course, Obama would have still been ahead even if that had happened.
And when it comes to objective information, it doesn't help that many members of her campaign (including, it should be noted, plenty of men, like Bill, Terry McAuliffe, Harold Ickes, etc.) seem to be operating in the toxic Bushian mode of believing their own spin -- with regard to the "popular vote", the "electoral vote", MI and FL, the "white working class", etc. I'm sure the campaign was not doing anything to disabuse the protesters of their confusion about the delegate count on Saturday.
All of this is producing a festering mess. And the only person who is really in a position to end it is Clinton herself. But I'm not sure she's going to.
A campaign ultimately reflects the psyche of the candidate -- and a signature trait of Clinton's campaign has been its inflexibility. They failed to adapt to Obama's brilliant end run around the large, traditionally blue states; they did not act in time to stem ruinous financial losses; they stuck with bad managers like Patti Solis Doyle, and bad messengers like Mark Penn, long past their expiration dates.
This says something about Clinton herself. She is incredibly disciplined, but not good at operating in rapidly shifting political winds. Her attempts to launch fresh lines of attack against Obama every couple of weeks do not represent fundamental changes in campaign strategy, merely changes in surface rhetoric -- and they have been spectacularly unsuccessful.
Her inflexibility is her tragic flaw. Now I fear that it may not only be her personal downfall, but that it may deal a crippling blow to party unity going into the fall. I wonder if she is even psychologically capable of conceding before exhausting every single procedural loophole. Remember how Bill resisted overwhelming pressure to resign during his impeachment? I have no doubt that much of his tenacity was backstopped by hers -- they seem to feed off each other. If she approaches this situation the way he approached that one, then she is not about to concede. And the combination of her inflexibility, her supporters' deeply-ingrained resentments, and her campaign's relentless promotion of bogus information about the process, is a recipe for serious trouble ahead.





The problem, in terms of hoping that Hillary will concede, is that the Clinton strategy -- of double-daring anyone to call them on their litany of misrepresentations and self-serving actions -- has, unfortunately, always worked. From Gennifer Flowers in Arkansas through Whitewater, commodities future profits, Travelgate, missing documents, Monica Lewinsky through actual impeachment, their strategy has been to sit tight, deny, lie and dare. Because this has always worked for them, without exception, why would we imagine that their strategy would change? It is that strategy which underlies the very inflexibility you cite.
I see little hope for a change of tune when, this morning, a reporter asked Hillary what campaign mistakes she could see, in hindsight, that she might address differently if she had it to do over? Hillary's reply? "This isn't the time to consider questions like that."
Of course not; she's still "in it to win it."
June 2, 2008 1:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Both my significant other and I, who are in the Clinton age, racial, and education cohort, began this campaign as supporters of her. She lost me with Bill's Jesse Jackson comment following the SC primary, but my partner, a 1970s vintage Ivy League JD/MBA held one for about another 4-6 weeks because of her belief that Hillary does represent women of a certain age who could never overcome discrimination completely in spite of all their accomplishments. Every time I would say, "I get that but how does that explain the vitriol toward Obama who clearly bears no responsibility for that injustice?", she would tell me that I do not really understand what that experience was like. After watching the protests around the RBC meeting on Saturday, I have to agree, I do not get it.
What I do get is that, as you point out, Clinton herself mismanaged this campaign from the outset by making the simplest mistake any competitor can make - underestimating the opposition. All the other mistakes flow from that one fatal miscalculation.
I also get that her most fervent supporters are not yet ready to line up to shake hands with the victors and say "good game." What I do know from having observed that ritual weekly for the last 12 years is that it is the beginning of healing. And just as the coach must make the players line up to shake hands, it is now up to Hillary to do the same thing with her players.
We will know by the end of this week if she is planning to depart with grace and dignity, or if she is going to confirm the beliefs of people who think it is always about her/them and never about anything bigger or more noble. I have no idea what she will do, but most of us recognize that this phase of the contest is over and that we must turn our attention to defeating McCain. That train is leaving with or without Hillary. I hope she will be aboard because she can be a big help, but if she is not, someone will step up to take her place. There is always some kid on the bench looking for his or her opportunity.
June 2, 2008 2:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
And just as the coach must make the players line up to shake hands, it is now up to Hillary to do the same thing with her players.
Barack Obama:
'I can get all of her voters, I know she can't get all of mine'
Michelle Obama:
'I'd have to think long and hard about voting for Hillary.'
Sow. Reap.
June 2, 2008 3:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am still working on this, but isn't you just talking about all of the wrongs committed against women, all of the condescending speech about a lifetime of angst stemming from an inability to succeed in a male-dominated society (Opps, I think I just did it too!) a little sexist?
Barack Obama is the democratic nominee for the Presidency of the United States. That is a fact. The rest is just academics!
June 2, 2008 3:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
First, you're badly misquoting Michelle. She never said she'd have to think long and hard about _voting_ for Clinton, she said she'd have to think (_not_ "long and hard") about _working_ to support Clinton. She followed up immediately by saying that everyone in the Democratic party will work to support the nominee. See http://www.salon.com/politics/war_room/2008/02/04/michelle_obama/
You've also misquoted Barack, taking his comment out of context and re-wording it to be more inflammatory. In context, it's hard to see how Obama's (mis)quote above is offensive: His point was that Hillary was stronger among Democrats, and he suspected that these Democrats would vote for the Democratic Party nominee in November; in contrast, Obama was stronger at the time among independents, who might or might not vote for a Democrat in the General Election.
From http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/02/01/629273.aspx:
Clinton has said much more inflammatory things during the course of her campaign, I'd wager... Yet, unlike with the Obamas, you don't seem to be holding the media soundbites of those misfires against her...
June 2, 2008 4:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ahem... The previous comment was intended to be a reply to Indiex.
June 2, 2008 4:55 PM | Reply | Permalink