Will McCain drop out?
I just came accross this article which made me think:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/steve-rosenbaum/when-mccain-drops-out_b_107236.html
What do you think, is it possible?
Here's what I think...
I believe this is entirely possible. By now it's become clear that conservatives don't like McCain. In fact, no constituency is enthusiastic about him. The only thing making him "popular" is that some people don't trust Obama because he's new. And those who do genuinely like him, like him because of what he used to be (i.e. a moderate and a maverick), not for what he is now. He won the primaries by winning the republican-leaning independents, but once he clinched the nomination, he flip-flopped on almost every issue to make his policies as Bush-like as possible. A lot of people still don't know that and still like him for his old views. So the irony is: he is still somewhat popular because people don't know him (they think they do). But that's gonna have to change, as the campaign goes on, he's gonna have to state his views clearly, and it seems like with every statement he makes, he drives away some of his supporters (either moderate or conservative). So as people get to know Obama and McCain, Obama will be gaining popularity (as people will no longer think of him as an unknown radical elitist muslim), while McCain will be losing it (the popularity at least). So it makes sense to swap him with someone else.
If he drops out gracefully, e.g. because of his health and age, it won't seem like primary voters are being disregarded (unless this becomes known as the Republicans' plan) and it may even invoke a lot of sympathy, which could enable him to "transfer" his supporters to the replacement candidate.
Also, McCain can in such case very well be used as a throw-away prototype (a term used in software development). He has during his campaign said and done a lot of things, some of which worked and some did not. And some of the things made permanent scars on his popularity (clearly flip-flopping and being clueless being among them). Thus by now the Republicans have a pretty clear picture of what works among voters and what not and what voters simply don't tolerate. So they could start anew with a brand new candidate who will start with a "fresh" policy and will do everything right, right from the start, without flip-flopping.
I think this definitely is a viable option for the Republicans that they are no doubt considering, so we should keep an eye on this. It would be nice if the media reported on the idea, because people won't fall for it so much if they know it was planned.
What do you think?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/steve-rosenbaum/when-mccain-drops-out_b_107236.html
What do you think, is it possible?
Here's what I think...
I believe this is entirely possible. By now it's become clear that conservatives don't like McCain. In fact, no constituency is enthusiastic about him. The only thing making him "popular" is that some people don't trust Obama because he's new. And those who do genuinely like him, like him because of what he used to be (i.e. a moderate and a maverick), not for what he is now. He won the primaries by winning the republican-leaning independents, but once he clinched the nomination, he flip-flopped on almost every issue to make his policies as Bush-like as possible. A lot of people still don't know that and still like him for his old views. So the irony is: he is still somewhat popular because people don't know him (they think they do). But that's gonna have to change, as the campaign goes on, he's gonna have to state his views clearly, and it seems like with every statement he makes, he drives away some of his supporters (either moderate or conservative). So as people get to know Obama and McCain, Obama will be gaining popularity (as people will no longer think of him as an unknown radical elitist muslim), while McCain will be losing it (the popularity at least). So it makes sense to swap him with someone else.
If he drops out gracefully, e.g. because of his health and age, it won't seem like primary voters are being disregarded (unless this becomes known as the Republicans' plan) and it may even invoke a lot of sympathy, which could enable him to "transfer" his supporters to the replacement candidate.
Also, McCain can in such case very well be used as a throw-away prototype (a term used in software development). He has during his campaign said and done a lot of things, some of which worked and some did not. And some of the things made permanent scars on his popularity (clearly flip-flopping and being clueless being among them). Thus by now the Republicans have a pretty clear picture of what works among voters and what not and what voters simply don't tolerate. So they could start anew with a brand new candidate who will start with a "fresh" policy and will do everything right, right from the start, without flip-flopping.
I think this definitely is a viable option for the Republicans that they are no doubt considering, so we should keep an eye on this. It would be nice if the media reported on the idea, because people won't fall for it so much if they know it was planned.
What do you think?
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Horsefeathers.
June 16, 2008 2:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
You think? Why?
I mean, I kind of believe that, not because I think it's a great idea to switch candidates, but because it's pretty clear that McCain, such as he is, doesn't stand much of a chance.
June 16, 2008 2:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
This will of course be a gamble for them as well and a lot will depend on the reporting. If most media reports on the replacement candidate as both well-known and new, and is not given enough time to dig up all potential dirt before the election, they may have a somewhat good chance.
Remember reporting about Obama. At the beginning it was all about his freshness and charisma and change, and he was getting very popular. Then at one point it occured to the media: "Hey, this is no longer news. We're missing out on something! Let's dig up (or make up) all the dirt we can come up with!" and his popularity plummeted for a while, and it's only now that it's become quite stable.
So if they really do bring in a new candidate, a lot will depend on the "media reporting phase" in November. But I think this really may be their best option.
June 16, 2008 2:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
As some candidates tended to remind us, anything can happen... I think, however, that if this is "...their best option," I am elated. If it happens, I think it is a sure KO by Obama in November. If it doesn't, and talk of the possibility continues - again, love our chances in November. Win-win.
June 16, 2008 2:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
I have never believed McCain would be the GOP candidate. I even doubt that he could survive until November if he were the candidate. Reagan was pretty well out of it when he was elected, but McCain makes Reagan look intellectual.
The stumbling block here is McCain. He is stubborn, has a bad temper, and is highly unlikely to voluntarily step aside for someone else. I have no good idea how the GOP will get around that problem, but I am pretty certain the planning phase is well underway.
Incidentally, if Chuck Hagel were to be the "designated runner" he would easily win.
June 16, 2008 2:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain is likely the only GOP candidate who would have a chance this election given his life story. I sometimes think that he was the GOP's sacrificial lamb in that they didn't want to waste a potentially good candidate in an election they really shouldn't have any hope of winning.
The GOP can't run on their record this year, meaning it's going to be identity politics for them and McCain has his familial Military history and his POW stay to focus on.
June 16, 2008 2:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Remember Thomas Eagleton http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_F._Eagleton
June 16, 2008 3:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Whether McCain has a chance or not isn't the question. The question is who do Republicans have that stands a significantly better chance than McCain.
Which is why McCain won't drop out.
June 16, 2008 3:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bobby Jindal (Gubnah of Looeeseeannah) was getting major love on the talk shows this weekend. "The Next Ronald Reagan!"
June 16, 2008 3:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
I didn't realize a re-make of Bedtime for Bonzo was in the works. Jindal would be perfect as the wacky professor trying to prove nurture beats nature. It's got to be that movie surely he'd be mis-cast in the Gipper role for Knute Rockne: All American and the Hollywood suits would want a more box office name (I'm thinking Matt Damon) for the guy who loses his legs in King's Row
Ah, but there I go again....
June 16, 2008 6:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Jindal would be a great president - universal exorcism for all! Imagine the effort he would need to exert just to exorcise the demons from Karl Rove and Dick Cheney. At least that would keep him too busy to order an attack on some other oil producing nation - Venezuela, for example.
June 16, 2008 11:27 PM | Reply | Permalink