Electoral Mavermatics
My friends,
After much perusing of Poblano's excellent site and monkeying around with my favorite Electoral College calculator, I have been tentetively forced to conclude that Straight-Talking John "Maverick" McCain (who was tortured for his country but don't ask because he doesn't like to talk about it) is screwed.
The Hillary diehards (who are pretty much resembling the political equivalent of the the James-Younger Gang, these days) like to sniff about daily tracking polls and head to head national primaries, but, as we should all frakking know by now, those numbers mean absolutely nothing. The only number that means anything is 270--the number of electoral votes necessary to win. (Or, 269, if you don't mind an ugly, divisive, messy Constitutional crisis that we'll probably win anyway).
It's only July. Anything could happen and overconfidence is bad, bad, very bad.
But right now, the electoral college math is almost insurmountable for McCain. Indeed, the mathematical walls began closing in on him even before the primaries were over. At this point, he's exactly where Hillary was after February--clinging on in the hope that something, anything, happens to turn things around that radically changes the dynamic. A gaffe, a scandal, something.
As of today, one of Bush's '04 states, Iowa, is already lost to the Mav. Based upon Poblano's regression analysis, as well as an eyeballing the most recent state polls listed on the right hand side of his site, eleven states are in play this year: North Carolina, Florida, Missouri, Nevada, Indiana, Montana, Virginia, Ohio, Michigan and New Meico. (Poblano calls a state "in play" if his regression shows a November win percentage for either candidate of less than 5%. He chose that number because, historically, 5% is about the most you can move a number with GOTV and intensive late campaigning.)
The Mav's problems, in a nutshell are a) ten of those in-play states were red last time which means b) when you total up the electoral votes for the states that aren't in play, Mav starts the game with 160 electoral votes while Obama has 242, and, c) in the "in play" category, Michigan, Ohio, New Mexico and Colorado are looking pretty solid, if tight, for Obama. Even if McCain wins all the others, if Obama carries just those four, he wins big.
Or, look at it this way, Assuming both guys carry their "safe" state, if Obama adds Ohio and Michigan to his bag, he wins. Moreover, if Obama carries only one of these two he wins if he also carries:
Virginia, or
North Carolina, or
Florida, or
Indiana, or
Missouri, or
Colorado + New Mexico, or
Colorado + Nevada, or
New Mexico + Nevada + Montana.
Further, if Obama wins Ohio but loses Michigan, he can win in all of these ways and, additionally, can win with:
New Mexico + Nevada, or,
New Mexico + Montana, or
Montana + Nevada, or
Colorado + Montana.
If you're John McCain's campaign manager and you've got half a brain, its an absolute nightmare. If McCain were a general, he would be one who has simultaneously to conquer vast swaths of enemy territory while simultaneously stamping out mass rebellions in his own rear areas. Nightmare. Not aware of many generals who've ever managed to do that. Julius Caesar, maybe, and Mav is no Julius Caesar.
Oh, and icing on the cake. For me at least. Iif you're playing with an electoral vote calculator, notice how important all those states that we were told didn't matter are now and thoroughly they screw McCain's ability to come up with a winning strategy.
Somewhere, if Mark Penn's head is exploding.
Here is a meta-analysis, which includes the results from fivethirtyeight. Not surprisingly, it is similarly optimistic.
July 17, 2008 11:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
A post like this is always informative (and, in this case, encouraging). Thanks and rec'd.
July 18, 2008 1:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
Nice to meet you, NCSteve...I've been accused on a comment to my 1st ever post (Let's Get Obama Elected First) of cutting and pasting some of your best stuff (which I didn't, today is my 1st visit to this site) and it's nice to see that you have a good head on your shoulders and that if I sounded like you it was a compliment!
I've been obsessing a little that Obama isn't as comfortably ahead in the polls as I would like to see him be given the AWFUL candidate he is up against.
Your info on the electoral numbers was reassuring...seems like there are lots of ways to win. Maybe I can sleep tonight. Thanks!
July 18, 2008 1:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ah, the joys of the 50-state strategy. :-D
July 18, 2008 8:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm a New Yorker, so cynicism and skepticism are basically ingrained from kindergarden. Plus I'm a Hillary supporter and we all know how that inevitable candidacy turned out. The polls make me hopeful, but the Republicans don't start slinging real mud until the convention. Even if we do have a sizable advantage, let's pretend like we're behind until November 4th.
Obama ran a much more effective campaign as the up and comer behind the eight ball than he did when he had a lead and Hillary was making her resurgence. Also even though McCain is behind, Obama doesn't have the advantage of the media telling them on a daily basis that the race has already been won by Obama because of his lead. It's in the media's interest to keep this general election race as close as possible. Let's take advantage of that perception of a close race and use it to emphasize how important every individual vote will be to this election.
July 18, 2008 8:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, except without the hand-wringing. ;) I don't think I've seen it from you, but there have been several here who seem to be lamenting (or gloating in a couple cases) about McCain and Obama being "virtually tied".
July 18, 2008 10:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
And while I totally agree with you, what Ben said is precisely the point of my post, Dija. This is a game, not in the MSM Versailles courtier "politics is all just a big funny, fun gossipy game for our amusement," sense, but in the theoretical sense--its competition with (some) rules in which there will be a winner and a loser. Winning a game requires you to both identify and fix your own weaknesses, but you can't identify opportunities for vitory unless you look at the board from the other player's perspective.
Plus, Dems need frequent pep talks. You know how easily a lot of 'em will fall into Chicken Little panic mode if you don't give them a bit of encoragement now and then, and that can become contagious and quickly suck the life out of a campaign. It was certainly a big part of what happened to Dukakis and Kerry.
And any Republican who notices this post is already knows it and the rest are in denial and incapable of believing it.
But if you want to find something to worry about, I'm not crazy about the direction of the trend line of Pablano's regression graph nor do I care for the slow drip drip on his EV estimate over the last two or three weeks . . .
July 18, 2008 12:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes. It's not pretty.
On the other hand, the fact that it's been a slow drip even in spite of the fawning treatment of McCain, is good.
July 18, 2008 12:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
No hand-wringing here - I like where we are right now and your analysis makes me giddy. I like seeing red states in the toss-up column. Making the Republicans divert their resources is excellent strategery.
My biggest weakness in 2004 was complacency & over-confidence. It was unthinkable to me that John Kerry could lose to GWB in 2004. John Kerry ahead in the polls to a president with sub 50% approval. He didn't worry about the swiftboating because he was sure Americans would see through the BS. The Bush Admin amped up their terror alert warnings right before the election to promote the politics of fear. I have no idea what they've got cooked up for September and October, but it's going to be something.
Pep talks and optimism are good - I hung in there with Hillary until the very last day so I know how to keep hope alive :) And I'll be cheerleading as well for Obama until Novmber 4th: B-E-A-G-G-R-E-S-S-I-V-E. But saying that the election is going to be a close one emphasizes the urgency of every single individual to get out and vote. I hope we can make it a blowout rather than a squeaker.
July 18, 2008 3:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Btw, one of my cats gave me an over shoulder look from my office this morning as I was heading back up to my bedroom, and I swear the first thing that popped into my head was "dang, she looks like Dijamo's avatar pic."
July 18, 2008 12:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oops - this belongs here! One day I will learn the html.
Chalk up another cat-person TPMer. Nice! Today in NYC it's about 100% humidity and the Wily-Kit Thundercats hair is in full effect :)
July 18, 2008 4:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes indeed. His campaign should demote Bill Burton and put Gibbs in his place, and act as if they're down by 10 points. His campaign was at its most lackluster when it became clear that he was going to accumulate more pledged delegates than Clinton. Her campaign became much more effective at the same time. Nothing left to lose.
July 18, 2008 12:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
I understand the concern here. But let's give the Obama campaign a little credit.
These people have a plan. A well-thought out, thoroughly researched, and highly effective plan. The Obama campaign stuck to this plan throughout the primary season - it's what got them their delegate lead, and enabled them to actually expand that lead after March 4.
They have a plan for the general election as well. Perhaps the campaign is not being as outwardly aggressive as we would like. But the numbers at 538.com and elsewhere demonstrate that the plan is in damn good shape.
The problem, for those of us who have followed multiple campaigns, is that we've never seen a plan quite like this one. I had doubts about the Obama plan at times throughout the primary, but I liked the fact that they stuck to it regardless of the political weather. Again, it wasn't always fun as a supporter, but the numbers don't lie.
July 18, 2008 3:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree...everytime I start to worry, my husband reminds me that these are exceptionally bright people he has surrounded himself with, and we have to trust him.
I keep trying to just shut down the computer, turn off the t.v. and come back in a month or so, but can't quite bring myself to do it.
We can do this, we just need to have faith and be patient, and keep sending positive messages about Obama to everyone on our contact lists regularly....
July 18, 2008 10:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Very good post, dear Steve (as usual).
Very true. What more, not only is McCain in the same spot now that Clinton occupied after February, he is taking exactly her same approach to it. Needless to say, I am delighted. I plan to keep working as if we were way behind (to some extent we are here in Missouri), but all I can say is that if John McCain cares to re-hash a strategy that has already proven a failure, he will deserve the drubbing he gets and I will be delighted.
July 18, 2008 12:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh goody! Does this mean Sen. Obama can go back to being a Democrat again?
July 18, 2008 2:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Gotta love friendly fire. (/snark)
July 18, 2008 3:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't mind. Taking FF is part of my job.
July 18, 2008 7:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Chalk up another cat-person TPMer. Nice! Today in NYC it's about 100% humidity and the Chalk up another cat-person TPMer. Nice! Today in NYC it's about 100% humidity and the Wily-Kit Thundercats hair is in full effect :)
July 18, 2008 4:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
dang u effin html!
July 18, 2008 4:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
No, not screwed. That kinda suggests he doesn't deserve what's coming to him. I'd rather say he's toast.
Anything could happen? I thought you said he's screwed!
I guess I must be overconfident that he really is toast!
July 18, 2008 7:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Apparently there were reasons for that, CT Voter; for instance, it worked, right? We want flash and dash, shiny things flying left and right, victory signs and party-like-it's-January-20th songs. Any normal politician would be pounding the idea of inevitability. But lately it seems that inevitability isn't what it used to be.
Obama's campaign is indeed unexciting right now. The campaign is protecting its flanks by shooting back at attack ads and stupid cartoons, but otherwise is building presidential-looking visits and putting out attractive policy positions where Dems can find them (personally I liked the NYT opinion the best). It's the calm before the storm. Obama's not going to blow his wad before he's even nominated, not this far away from November. Everybody's fried, bored, tired. This is the time to lay the groundwork, open the field offices, and set phasers to 'stun.'
And meanwhile Bush/McCain are completely wasting the effect of the most substantive flip-flop of either one's recent careers: talks with Iran and withdrawal of troops. Brilliant political move, but the timing is about as bad as it could be. Obama's about to come back from Iraq with brilliantly exposited plans developed with the help of the military commanders that neither Bush nor McCain intend to heed, along with a pointed critique of how Bush is screwing around with Iran (by then, Rice will have been made a fool of, poor thing).
It's a long, long game. Whenever you start to hyperventilate, remember that, unless you've gotten someone elected to the white house lately, Obama's people are far, far smarter than you and me. McCain's people? Well, not so much.
July 18, 2008 8:17 PM | Reply | Permalink