Has Obama's Overseas Trip Paid Off?
To start, we'll probably have to wait a little longer to see whether it will pay off in the long run. But the short term effects are already starting to be seen, and if history in this election cycle has taught us anything about Obama, it's that he's consistently been able to hold on to the positive and expand upon it, and throw off the negative.
The latest Gallup Poll has Obama ahead by 9 points, the largest lead he's ever had for Gallup. This is definitely as a result of Obama's overseas trip, though Gallup credits it with the huge amount of media coverage he received on his trip.
Yes, it's true that Obama got a ton of media coverage, especially compared to McCain. The issue is not the amount of coverage, though, but what was being covered. Obama made not one mistake in his trip, whereas McCain spent the entire time screwing up, making gaffes and whining.
The media loves McCain. But there's only so much they can do when he screws up as badly as he has been and as consistently as he has been (CBS tried to cover it up, but just didn't do a good enough job).
Though this may be a temporary boost, I think Obama has gained in the long run. People saw the way he performed with foreign leaders, and the way in which they received him (overhwhelmingly positive). He met with Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas, whereas McCain has not. He practically got an endorsement from French President Nicolas Sarkozy (whether you respect the guy or not, better relations between the US and France would be a very good thing). His Iraq timetable was applauded and praised by... The Iraqi Government.
People saw these things. They will continue to be talked about. McCain, though he may try, will have a very hard time recovering from this. What makes it all the sweeter, though, is that he brought it on himself when he goaded Obama into visiting Iraq, and derided him for his so-called "lack of experience" in foreign affairs.
The latest Gallup Poll has Obama ahead by 9 points, the largest lead he's ever had for Gallup. This is definitely as a result of Obama's overseas trip, though Gallup credits it with the huge amount of media coverage he received on his trip.
Yes, it's true that Obama got a ton of media coverage, especially compared to McCain. The issue is not the amount of coverage, though, but what was being covered. Obama made not one mistake in his trip, whereas McCain spent the entire time screwing up, making gaffes and whining.
The media loves McCain. But there's only so much they can do when he screws up as badly as he has been and as consistently as he has been (CBS tried to cover it up, but just didn't do a good enough job).
Though this may be a temporary boost, I think Obama has gained in the long run. People saw the way he performed with foreign leaders, and the way in which they received him (overhwhelmingly positive). He met with Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas, whereas McCain has not. He practically got an endorsement from French President Nicolas Sarkozy (whether you respect the guy or not, better relations between the US and France would be a very good thing). His Iraq timetable was applauded and praised by... The Iraqi Government.
People saw these things. They will continue to be talked about. McCain, though he may try, will have a very hard time recovering from this. What makes it all the sweeter, though, is that he brought it on himself when he goaded Obama into visiting Iraq, and derided him for his so-called "lack of experience" in foreign affairs.
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I'd certainly like to think it's paying dividends.
He got to 'audition' for the role, allowing Americans to see what a President Obama would look like, and he appeared dignified, composed, authoritative, youthful, exciting, and certainly up to the job. He naturally siphoned off all the press coverage by making the trip. He didn't screw anything up, meaning that however hard the MSM tried, it still ended up being positive pictures, a sense of event, and an example attention being pulled toward the candidate that has clearly become the center of gravity in the campaign.
Whether it's a decisive moment, I don't pretend to know. But it was an example of political genius, a bold stroke with high risk and high reward executed deftly and with impeccable timing. This is what a leader looks like, and this is how a leader rolls.
July 27, 2008 6:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Whether it's a decisive moment, I don't pretend to know. But it was an example of political genius, a bold stroke with high risk and high reward executed deftly and with impeccable timing. This is what a leader looks like, and this is how a leader rolls.
I completely agree. We won't really know how the trip has defined anything for a long time to come. But it was definitely a huge risk for him to take, but one that he felt he had to. You're absolutely right on.
July 27, 2008 6:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Cheers...forgot you'd changed your look. Another good post, Chrono.
July 27, 2008 11:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama was all over the news during his ridiculous publicity junket around Southwest Asia, so I was amazed to read in the Guardian that not a single journalist accompanied Mr. Obama to Iraq and Afghanistan.
This is the kind of "message discipline" that's more familiar in North Korea than the United States, but Mr. Obama isn't an "ordinary" politician, as millions of Obamabots keep repeating ad nauseam, so maybe their "dear leader" thinks he really deserves to have as much control over the press as Kim Jong-Il. No reporters with Obama in Iraq and Afghanistan! Obama didn’t just manage the press coverage of his silly tour… he erased it, and replaced it with a careful selection of soundbites and snapshots intended to make himself look “presidential.”
July 28, 2008 2:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you. Greatly appreciated. =)
July 28, 2008 8:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
But wouldn't you know that the Fox news crowd would paint him as cocky and presumptuous, instead of admiting that "Dang! That guy looks like a President, talks like a President and acts like a President!"
July 28, 2008 1:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think that McCain just needs to go over to Europe and entertain them with one of his Beach Boy Song parodies. That will show them who's presidential!
Maybe he will even tell them a couple of his hilarious jokes!
July 27, 2008 6:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
That would go over beautifully.
July 27, 2008 8:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
If Maliki hadn't virtually endorsed Obama's plan for withdrawal, then I would have been fairly confident in predicting that the trip would have zero positive impact on the course of the election. As it stands, that did happen, and so as we move into the fall, I think we'll see that event take on more prominence.
July 27, 2008 7:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, I don't know if it was just luck, or whether Maliki, knowing Obama's position, decided to throw his weight behind it...but whichever it was, that could prove to be the decisive moment. And it may very well be that had Obama not been there, giving Maliki the opening, he wouldn't have embraced that time frame so openly, and so clearly in relation to Obama. Pretty good move from Maliki, finding a means to influence, without appearing to meddle in a US election.
July 27, 2008 11:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Kinda like the line about reality having an "anti-Bush bias", it's just a fact that Obama is news, and McCain ain't. If Obama does anything at all, it will be covered.
OK by me.
July 28, 2008 12:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
For McCain the trip to Iraq wasn't just a cudgel to beat Obama with, it was supposed to be a joint trip that, like his proposed series of town halls would get him lots of adoring free media (where he would be favorably compared), and he could patronise Obama. Obama called his bluff though, and left McCain to his aptly named House of Fudge.
July 28, 2008 2:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
OF COURSE IT PAID OFF.
Its main effect will be the nuetrilazation of the path to take on foreign policy and will direct attention to the economy (justifiably blaming the War), healthcare and gas prices (also foreign policy).
We have War fatigue and soon Surge fatigue.
Forget the polls cus they dont include Barr and Nader. Or you can just not include margin of error and/or Keith Number.
Who wants to bet that McCane wont make any more gaffes from hear to NOVEMBER?
July 28, 2008 2:45 PM | Reply | Permalink