It's a tight race! Lather, rinse, repeat... it's a tight race! Lather, rinse, repeat...
I will be one of the very last people to succumb to overconfidence. Still, can't help to find it at least a little amusing that the Washington Post (among others) seemingly continues to insist all the cards are in place for a resounding McCain victory the very same day we get something completely different from Gallup.
So, just how many times does one need to repeat something until it finally becomes true? Heidi Klum loves me... Heidi Klum loves me...
So, just how many times does one need to repeat something until it finally becomes true? Heidi Klum loves me... Heidi Klum loves me...
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Nice catch.
July 24, 2008 11:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
Disagree, Alex.
"Washington Post seemingly continues to insist all the cards are in place for a resounding McCain victory the very same day we get something completely different from Gallup."
It's a total distortion of the article which only points out that in the Quinnipiac poll they're talking about, McCain has made significant gains in 4 battleground states.
Read the article and you'll see a fairly balanced analytical piece that describes various factors that seem to be working for McCain *and* those working for Obama.
How does
"The national political environment -- as reflected in these four statewide polls -- also seems to suggest major hurdles for McCain in the fall."
reduce to
"all the cards are in place for a resounding McCain victory"
July 24, 2008 4:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
I must admit that I took quite a bit of liberty with the overall tone of the WaPo piece when it is viewed as an isolated article.
Please forgive me.
However, I decided to leave my text as such because of what I (and others) have perceived as detectable McCain bias from WaPo over the past several months. My statement was more an indictment of continuing WaPo coverage of McCain, with this particular article as one supporting example, rather than an attempt to summarize the article itself. My unclarity on the matter was the fault of none but myself, and was not intentional.
July 24, 2008 5:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
I shake my head in disbelief every time I see a poll showing McCain making ground (and yes, I know polls don't mean much at this point in time as to the eventual outcome of the election, but they do give a snapshot in time and that concerns me.)
I love America, but I'm having a hard time w/ some Americans at the moment. We are sadly a nation with MANY low information voters (watch Leno's "jaywalking" if you want to see just how ignorant people can be!) It is inconceivable that anyone who pays ANY attention to current events could POSSIBLY consider voting for McCain. Yeah, Yeah, he was a war hero, but that doesn't make him presidential material, and besides a lot of time has passed since then. Now he's just a man who has overstayed his welcome at the party, but few have balls enough to tell him.
He may have had a few grand moments along the way (although they escape me at the moment) but he's WAAAAY past prime. At best he'd be a place holder waiting for whoever is going to run in 2012, and in the meantime we'd be passing up an opportunity to see what a REAL leader could do.
Obama may not have a lot of experience in foreign affairs, may not have a degree in economics, may not have experience in running a Fortune 500 Company, but he is a LEADER. He knows how to surround himself w/ people who know the things he doesn't, and is smart enough to listen to them and form rational policy based on their expertise.
He knows how to inspire people to do more than they think they are capable of doing. That, to me is worth considerably more than military experience.
I, for one, am willing (and even anxious) to forego whatever comfort may exist in sameness and give a real leader a chance. He can't possibly do any worse, and in all probability will do much better...
After all, he's made this 56 year old woman with a really good life, take a time out from that life to PAY ATTENTION for the first time in a long and discover that she is "stillidealistic."
July 24, 2008 4:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think what the media often miss is that while the popular vote looks like it will once again be close, the electoral college has a noticeable pro-Obama bias. :)
For instance, 538 has the electoral vote at 292.4 Obama - 245.6 McCain, while the popular vote is 48.9 Obama - 47.5 McCain.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
It's 297 Obama, 69 toss-up, 172 McCain at www.pollster.com.
July 24, 2008 5:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
At no point are we to forget that what Obama is faced with is a formidable task: getting America to elect an African American as president. Because we believe, many of us sometimes reason as if the rest of the country reasons like we do and it's all come down to policy positions, experience, charisma and leadership. The fact, though, remains that there are millions, unfortunately, for whom this unfolding possibility is a very hard pill to swallow, and they'll find every reason even against their own better judgment to hand McCain their vote. Isn't it interesting that while all these debates are going on, noone mentions that Obama has a degree in international relations and that his first job ever was in that field? Yet he's supposed to be clueless about foreign policy and McCain who can't remember whether the Atlantic is to the East of West of the US is supposed to be the seasoned master of foreign policy. Go figure.
July 25, 2008 12:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
Relax. It will take much time for a lot of the country -- in particular, white pseudo-liberals -- to accept that the next President of the United States is going to be a black man.
July 25, 2008 2:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not entirely confident about an Obama landslide, to tell the truth. There is a large number of hard-core haters out there in the MSM, especially at the more conservative market and finance information sites. They post large tracts of so-called "truths" about Obama from sites such as Israel Insider (quite an eye-opening site in itself) where a "forensic expert" declared Obama's birth certificate a fraud, etc. These "conservatives" claim to hate McCain but fear a "treacherous" Obama even more.
We've seen this MO before, a slow chipping away with damaging slurs, rumors and accusations, not unlike what they did to McCain in 2000. They have plenty of foot soldiers, and will do much worse to Obama than they did with Kerry.
July 25, 2008 6:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
Nice catch.
NPR ran this as a big morning story to "balance" Obama's speech in Germany.
Funny how a single poll is elevated like this, when all the other polls are ignored because they don't help the MSM-Horserace narrative.
July 25, 2008 9:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
July 24, 2008
THE MYTH OF A TOSS-UP ELECTION
By Alan Abramowitz, Thomas E. Mann, and Larry J. Sabato
While no election outcome is guaranteed and McCain's prospects could improve over the next three and a half months, virtually all of the evidence that we have reviewed--historical patterns, structural features of this election cycle, and national and state polls conducted over the last several months--point to a comfortable Obama/Democratic party victory in November. Trumpeting this race as a toss-up, almost certain to produce another nail-biter finish, distorts the evidence and does a disservice to readers and viewers who rely upon such punditry. Again, maybe conditions will change in McCain's favor, and if they do, they should also be accurately described by the media. But current data do not justify calling this election a toss-up.
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/article.php?id=AIA2008072401
July 25, 2008 10:28 AM | Reply | Permalink