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What Digby said: We're Irrelevant
Well, she didn't quite say it that way.
She said that even losing when for a good cause with a lot of good organizational energy is important for building up long term party strength, or specific issues strength. Every time a district goes uncontested, a fairy loses its wings. The 50-state plan is a recipe for failure - this time. It means accepting losses, but trying to make those losses close so that next time, there's more funding, better people on the campaign, more name recognition, and in general an improved local party structure.
More activism came out of Dean's failed campaign than Kerry's close run - thinking out of the box. Netroots fielded a lot of doomed candidates in 2006 and lost a few, won a few - and made the Republicans dig deep to fight them off. Some of those candidates are disappointing Blue Doggers, but that's part of the ecosystem - better to have a bigger disappointing tent than a smaller irrelevant minority. For now.
So from Dean's tiny group of activists, extrapolate to Hillary's 18 million and Obama's 18+ million and contemplate what all that ground action up into June meant. People. Money. Passion. Enthusiasm. But at a local level. The 2 remaining candidates are irritating us to death or boring us silly? Tell me who you got local that's exciting you - think about Battle of the Bands. This is TPM Election Central, not TPM Boring Fucking Presidential Campaign Central.
As Quinn sent me, get up out of your chairs and ROCK! As if your very life depends on it. Or someone's. If you don't, I swear I'll start pulling wings off Tink. That'll show you. So blog or the fairy gets it. That's what it's come to. Violence begets good netizens. Heinlein would be pleased.
She said that even losing when for a good cause with a lot of good organizational energy is important for building up long term party strength, or specific issues strength. Every time a district goes uncontested, a fairy loses its wings. The 50-state plan is a recipe for failure - this time. It means accepting losses, but trying to make those losses close so that next time, there's more funding, better people on the campaign, more name recognition, and in general an improved local party structure.
More activism came out of Dean's failed campaign than Kerry's close run - thinking out of the box. Netroots fielded a lot of doomed candidates in 2006 and lost a few, won a few - and made the Republicans dig deep to fight them off. Some of those candidates are disappointing Blue Doggers, but that's part of the ecosystem - better to have a bigger disappointing tent than a smaller irrelevant minority. For now.
So from Dean's tiny group of activists, extrapolate to Hillary's 18 million and Obama's 18+ million and contemplate what all that ground action up into June meant. People. Money. Passion. Enthusiasm. But at a local level. The 2 remaining candidates are irritating us to death or boring us silly? Tell me who you got local that's exciting you - think about Battle of the Bands. This is TPM Election Central, not TPM Boring Fucking Presidential Campaign Central.
As Quinn sent me, get up out of your chairs and ROCK! As if your very life depends on it. Or someone's. If you don't, I swear I'll start pulling wings off Tink. That'll show you. So blog or the fairy gets it. That's what it's come to. Violence begets good netizens. Heinlein would be pleased.
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Huh? A relatively provocation-free post from Desidero. About local races!
I'm IL-15, in flat east central Illinois. It includes Champaign (university town), part of Bloomington, and a w h o l e lot of corn and soybeans. And farmers. Tim Johnson has been our Republican rep. since 2000, and sadly, his seat is as safe as houses. We don't make anyone's list of possible pick-ups.
I do have a couple of Democratic senators you may have heard of, which is fun -- we saw the junior senator speak when he was first running for Senate in 04.
Not a lot of contested races here, so on the whole I have to think globally, and act globally.
July 17, 2008 7:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hey, I went to the Screw of I. (Favorite 1996 football chant: "Blow, Illini!") Is the center of campus still under perpetual construction?
Ah, the good old days of -20 degree wind chill while walking from FAR to Lincoln Hall....
*shakes out of reverie*
I agree, Tim Johnson has IL-15 on lockdown. On the other hand, he's a decent rep, so it's certainly not like leaving, say, Steve King or Jean Schmidt in Congress. (My district has a permanent-fixture GOPer too: Tim Murphy. But he does do a good job - and even takes my calls.)
July 17, 2008 8:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yep, still under construction! It's called UIUC, as you know: "University of Illinois, Under Construction." From the air, Champaign looks like a city inhabited mainly by tower cranes.
And you're right that Tim Johnson could be worse.
July 17, 2008 8:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
But from far beneath the earth, Champaign's new construction work must look like.... dimples. Being pushed up by mysterious rods. Wow. Wish I could say I had that thought as a result of being stoned. Oh well.
July 17, 2008 9:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Twist a kitty-kat's tail more than 3 times and it might come off, learned that as a kid. Had to give everyone a break, including myself.
July 17, 2008 9:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, but how many kitty-kats did you have to go through Des?
July 17, 2008 9:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Love this blog. Wish I could recommend twice.
Digby is right. This will be a sustained effort that encompasses wins and losses. We have had a system rigged for incumbents for too long to expect it to change overnight.
I do think it will change, though.
In fact, I am in DC, but just up the road in Maryland, longtime incumbent Al Wynn lost his primary to a very progressive challenger in Donna Edwards. She is sure to advance in November. I agree that this is a long hard road and one that is just getting started.
For me, I would love to get Eleanor Holmes Norton out and put someone in there who wouldn't shut-up about DC representation until they finally gave it to us. She is long past her shelf-life in that position with no movement on either full State's rights are being repatriated back into Maryland, like a good chunk of Alexandria and Arlington did a long time ago.
There is a progressive solution to the problem of DC, we simply lack leadership to get it accomplished. I think Norton is much more vulnerable to a good challenger than she realizes. The city is small and a big enough mouth could attract attention and possibly some votes. Wait. I have a big mouth and live in DC.
That requires some thought. Don't tear the wings off that fairy just yet, we are still trying to fix the dragonflies.
July 17, 2008 8:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
I have to admit, I don't get the "recipe for failure" reference. I also don't see where the 50-state strategy "accepts" losses. If anything, I'd sa the old "insult-40-states" strategy is the one that really accepts losses in certain areas.
I don't believe there are any numbers that really bear this conjecture out. If there are, though, please share.
That said, I rec'd this post because we need to talk more about those local races where seats can flip. I give credit to Josh Marshall and the TPM cover guys for keeping the heat on people like Vito Fossella, Jean Schmidt and Mark Kirk. We should do more of that when blogging.
July 17, 2008 8:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
Simply that if you challenge difficult seats, you're going to lose some of them anyway, and accept that as being better than giving up before you start. Trying to win, but not taking winning as the only metric - it's putting the ball in play and improving your overall game and chances, along with some particular races. Full court press.
July 17, 2008 9:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for clearing up your point. To mix up metaphors from different sports, though, I prefer a full-court press to a prevent defense any day.
As any football fan who's watched a team try to hold a lead can attest, the "prevent" defense often only prevents you from winning.
But, a full-court press in basketball denies easy ball movement and forces the other team to up their tempo, thus increasing the chance of a turnover. That's exactly what the 50-state strategy does.
July 17, 2008 11:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
Tiny? Them's fightin' words.
Ok, you're right, but it all felt so huge at the time.
July 17, 2008 8:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
I agree, I wish it had been bigger. Obviously those results out of New Hampshire took some puff out of our sails, but it was grand while it lasted. And looking back it still looks nice and real, unlike say campaigning for Dukakis or hoping for Kerry.
July 17, 2008 9:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
It was real. It was grass roots as opposed to astroturf, or some combination.
It might end up being unique.
July 17, 2008 11:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
I preserved that DFA yard sign for the grandkids.
July 17, 2008 11:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
I preserved my grandkids.
Just for the hell of it.
July 17, 2008 9:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
I have to admit, I don't get the "recipe for failure" reference. I also don't see where the 50-state strategy "accepts" losses. If anything, I'd sa the old "insult-40-states" strategy is the one that really accepts losses in certain areas.
I completely agree. If there is one year in which the 50-state strategy is appropriate, it is this one, with a bad economy, 2 lost wars, the GOP in disarray (to put it mildly) and states suddenly in play that have not been in generations (see VA, for example).
Look also at the last 3 special elections (2 of which were in the deep south). Dems won every time. To stop now would be idiotic, in my view.
July 17, 2008 10:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
The race that I am excited about locally is Jay Nixon for governor (not very local, but more local than the national presidential race which we are all discussing most of the time of late). He is one of those few democrats who is popular in both the big cities of St Louis and Kansas City and in the more rural parts of the state. He has long coat tails and I am hopeful that his election will help us to take back the state legislature in time. Meanwhile, I am also excited about Andrea Simckes for state treasurer, although her chances of success are far slimmer than Nixon's.
July 17, 2008 11:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
I found this through BoingBoing: Sean Tevis is running for State Representative in Kansas. He thinks he can win if 3000 people give him $8.34 apiece. He's also funny:
http://seantevis.com/kansas/3000/running-for-office-xkcd-style/
Here's a quote from his website's Transparency in Government page.
I believe that government should be open and astonishingly accessible.
Astonshingly enough, he's at 1414 and counting. Help send a geek to the Kansas House today!
July 17, 2008 11:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
Long-term thinking? From a Democrat? Well, fuck me--at last I've seen it all.
July 17, 2008 11:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
Scott Harper in IL-13. I found him at Yearly Kos last year and invited him to our Downers Grove Township Dems meeting the next Wednesday where I helped convince him to run. He outraised 10 year incumbent Biggert in the second quarter and Sunday his staff organized the biggest canvass this district has ever seen, in July no less. In March his campaign sent 100 volunteers next door to help Bill Foster take Denny Hastert's seat on election day.
If you guys downstate in IL-15 or anywhere else don't have a race worth fighting c'mon out to the Chicago burbs. Besides Harper in IL-13, there's IL-11, IL-10, IL-6, and Foster's IL-14 that are in play and can use the help. We phonebank almost every night in Naperville and canvass almost every weekend.
http://www.scottharperforcongress.com/
July 17, 2008 2:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well my rep is also in the safest of the 'safe' districts...except it is one for the good guys, John Larson (D) CT-1. I am kinda interested to see what happens in my old district. Will freshman Rep. Chris Murphy (D) CT-5, who unseated living local legend Nancy Johnson in '06, will hold onto his seat. I am thinking he will because it takes a lot for the people in CT-5 to go with someone new.
I LOVE the 50 state strategy though. I think this year it will pay dividends. Like commissar1 said the D's already picked up 2 seats in 'deep red districts' in special elections this year.
July 17, 2008 2:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm in Chris's district. I think he will hang on, but it's going to be tight. David Cappiello is a jerk, but he's pretty moderate for a Republican.
I'm interested in Shays. He's not in my district, but I'm hoping Hines gives him the fight of his life, and wins.
July 17, 2008 7:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, I'll probably helping them both. I'm in deLauro's
Safe. Boring. District.
July 17, 2008 8:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
How is the 50-state plan a failure? What loses are you talking about? We are poised to win big, and not lose much at all, if anything. What the hell are you talking about?
July 17, 2008 3:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
In 2006, Rahm's view was to just go for seats in contention. If the current administration wasn't such a disaster, there wouldn't be so much in play this year. But they can still be lost.
July 18, 2008 1:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
The only thing I'm going to disagree with is claiming that the Dean campaign was solely responsible for creating all the online activism and that the Kerry campaign created none. The Kerry-Edwards campaign blog was extraordinarily active and pushed a lot of people into doing things off-line that they'd never done before.
Blogs like Democracy Cell Project, The Democratic Daily, Liberal Values, KerryVision, Reality Window, ToughDonkey are a direct result of that activism. Others have gone onto to be active in other blog communities and organizations.
Just getting a little tired of all the Kerry dissing that always goes on and thought I'd step forward and correct it for once.
July 17, 2008 3:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good point, he did react to Dean's on-line activism and created his own. Dean's advantage was temporary. And there were moments such as the debates when Kerry was damn good.
July 18, 2008 12:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
My contribution is Andrew Rice who is running for Senate against Jim Inhofe. He has a blog on huffpo today.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/andrew-rice/my-brother-was-killed-wit_b_113305.html
I don't know how much much of a chance he has, but there's always hope. He's raised a good bit of money, so that should help.
July 17, 2008 4:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tevis now has 2,894 donors. As someone commented in the BoingBoing discussion thread:
If you've been hearing how Colorado is going blue this year, it all started a few years back with a couple legislative seats switching over and giving some newcomers the chance to show voters they could get us out of the fiscal mess Repubs left us in.
July 18, 2008 12:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
And of course this was supposed to be a reply to my comment upthread about Sean Tevis in Kansas.
July 18, 2008 12:44 AM | Reply | Permalink