If Elected, A 1 in 6 Chance Palin Becomes President
I sincerely hope that John McCain lives a very long life, but like the rest of us, he is subject to the odds associated with a man his age. According to Vol. 54, No. 14 of the National Vital Statistics Reports available from the CDC at
http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr54/nvsr54_14.pdf
the odds of a 72 year old white male American diying in the next four years are a bit over 16%. You can calculate this using the table on Page 17. Just add 1 to each of the probabilities for men from 72-73 through 75-76, take the product of those four numbers, and subtract 1 to get 16.1%. Invert that percentage and you will see the the odds of VP Palin becoming POTUS Palin are only 1 out of 6.2.
Feeling lucky America? No worries. It turns out that the VP is sort of an internship or undergraduate program for one very lucky older student. Perhaps we should let people compete for it on an American Idol-like program.
Earlier today, I heard Charles Black say that she did not need to know much about foreign affairs initially because she would spend the next four years learning at the feet of the master. We should probably get a copy of the syllabus so we will all know exactly where she will be in her course of study if he dies before she earns her degree.
You forgot something - malignant melanoma. McCain has had several lesions removed and is very lucky to still be alive. That should drive it up to at least 50/50 over the next four years. Just because his mother is in her 90's really means nothing.
August 31, 2008 12:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
His father died at 70. His Grandfather at 61.
August 31, 2008 12:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
33 men have been elected President of the United States.
8 died in office and one resigned in disgrace.
5 men who were Vice President later won an election without their #1 dying in office.
But don't worry, John McCain plans to live through his term, and his plans are never wrong.
August 31, 2008 12:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
First, I wish I had been at the Ohio assembly to help sing Happy Birthday to grampa John, though it seems he didn’t really appreciate it too much.
But anyway, your post got me to think in terms of insurance actuarials. What would it cost the average middle class John and Sarah to get life insurance?
John McCain deserves at least a middle class $1,000,000 life policy, don't ya think? I know. You may be thinking… If you’re making just under John McCain’s $5,000,000 annual middle class income ceiling this is way too low; not enough insurance! But see, the trouble is, I just couldn’t get a quick on-line quote for $5,000,000. That would probably require more health details than John is willing to disclose. And Sarah, well all I know is she’s an avid hunter… but I’m not sure that is a plus or a minus on the insurance scoring (My guess would be that it's only a minus if you're hunting with the VP nowadays).
So I went with the basics.
Well, as it turns out, a quick quote (found through the first available goggle search result) of 10 year term life for a 72 year old male, non-smoker would run between $19,860 and $21,820 annually. That’s nothing for us Middle Class, right? Heck, don’t we all donate tens of thousands to John’s campaign (Oh, wait. That’s only Oil Company drivers and office manager middle class).
So what is good for John must be good for Sarah. Lets contrast a quick goggle search, $10 Mil, 10 year term life quote on her.
Sarah’s quick quote (not knowing all the details of course) came to a paltry middle class expense range between $1,010 and $1,325 annually.
Hmmmm…
The free market is always right, right? It would seem it doesn’t think John is such a good risk.
Well, I don’t either. But is has nothing to do with his premiums.
August 31, 2008 1:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, the chance is considerably higher, although difficult to estimate precisely. As my own post points out, seven out of the 11 Presidencies since 1944 have experienced events that did result or reasonably could have resulted in the Vice-President's succeeding. Not only are Presidents subject to the usual laws of mortality, they also are subject to other things such as forced resignation or impeachment. And the rate of assassination attempts on Presidents is much higher than the rate of murderous attacks on people in general.
September 1, 2008 12:07 AM | Reply | Permalink