New, Improved: VP Links?
In late 2007 early senior advisors to the Obama Campaign were front
and center. Conference calls that included them were common. As noted
in the LA Times:
Recently, I have been thinking that Ray Mabus seems to fulfill many requirements I would want of a President, which I believe is the ultimate choice for a VP, after all. He was an Ambassador to Saudi Arabia, governor of MS, is extremely popular, great on economic issues, and cleaned up the MS government as the State Auditor, as well. Finally, he reminds me of Bill Clinton, which could help solidify the party. Finally, a Southern VP just seems to make sense this year on many levels.Almost every campaign tries to set expectations and impressions of itself quietly behind the scenes. A favorite tool is the conference call where a campaign puts its supporters or experts on the line with reporters from around the country.
Today was Barack Obama's turn. On the line was Tom Daschle, former Senate majority leader and National Obama co-chair, Ray Mabus, former Mississippi governor, and Rep. Russ Carnahan of Missouri, historically a bellwether state in presidential elections.
Trapper John, a prescient diarist on Daily Kos, seems to think it will be Tom Daschle. Trapper John also lays down a good rationale why it won't be Tim Kaine, Evan Bayh, Sam Nunn, or Hillary Clinton. He admits Sebelius is also a solid frontrunner. I agree. Here's the article, it's a great read.
Finally, Carnahan is also an interersting thought. His family name is huge in MO (his father was elected posthumously) and has a short but interesting resume in the House. As we all know MO is of course, the bell-weather state, a huge swing state.
I was just very intrigued by reading this. Let me know what you think. The interesting thing is since all three are already part of the campaign they can be vetted rather inconspicuously.
Additional links:
Former Gov. Ray Mabus (D-MS)
Rep. Russ Carnahan (D-MO)
Former Sen. Tom Daschle (D-SD)
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Mabus is an interesting choice, but I gotta wonder if he has any business connections that may be problematic. It says in Wikipedia, that he's serving on many boards.
August 3, 2008 6:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Boards Mabus serves on, after quick Google search (for what it's worth):
Baker Donelson Bearman & Caldwell of Counsel (1996-)
Foamex International President and CEO (2006-)
America-Mideast Educational and Training Services, Inc. Board of Directors
Member of the Board of Foamex International
Member of the Board of Fusion Telecommunications
John Kerry for President
New Leadership for America PAC
Obama for America
August 3, 2008 6:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, who knows at this point. I am thinking that it will be someone that noone is thinking about. I can't believe that obama would pick any of the media darlings right now. They all have major drawbacks.
I choose none of the above. I think obama is going to surprise everyone with who he picks. I am willing to bet that it is someone totally under the radar, but who will help him govern. It's kind of like the porridge analogy from the three bears, not too hot, not too cold, just right. He can't pick someone with a ton of "experience" because it would detract from him. He can't pick someone who is a heavy washington insider, because it cuts against his message. He can't pick someone who was for the war, because again it cuts against his message. I believe that the war issue will cut out alot of the current front runners. It speaks to their judgment and would totally undermine obama. He definitely needs someone who was against the war from the get go.
Basically, the person has to be just right. And, I actually trust obama to make the just right decision. The man is brilliant and an excellent politician. I am sure that he will make the right call.
August 3, 2008 6:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree on all those points. I think the three above are off the radar enough and meet all those requirements. Thus... the blog.
All three of these guys have certain things going for them. Mabus has this great Southern charm thing though. Reminds me of Bill Clinton. Of the front-runners, Sebelius is the only one that seems to stand for what Obama is going for. She's bipartisan, changed gov't in KS, etc. The others really don't make sense.
August 3, 2008 6:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hm, all I can say, dear Michael, is that I think that you had better prepared for disappointment. I am afraid that this perfect candidate you want does not exist. Obama might have been the perfect VP for someone else, but there is no one out there who is the perfect running mate for him. I agree with the soundness and good sense of all the criteria which you listed, but I think that we must resign ourselves to the idea that the actual running mate who is actually picked will fail on one or more of those points. I do not know who the pick will be, but I will predict with unshakable confidence that we will have cause to be disappointed with him/her for one reason or another (and pleased with him/her for other reasons) regardless of who it turns out to be.
August 4, 2008 12:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Fun to speculate on, after going off on taxes yesterday, a fluffy subject to putz around on today....
August 3, 2008 7:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
I believe Daschle's wife is a K Street-er.
The issue holding back these names is that hey are nationally unknonwns. And Obama is fighting the uphill battle to get the electorate comfortable enough with him and would just be doubling this problem with now having to introduce his VP to America as well.
The longer Obama waits to name his VP the likelier it's a bigger name, more of a known national entity.
Mabus is an interesting name, but I'd have to learn more about him. His wiki looks solid.
August 3, 2008 7:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, recognizable name, etc. is important. I'm gonna cross my fingers for Feingold or Schweitzer. Not exactly huge names like a Clinton or Edwards, but well respected. But then there IS that other Edwards- Chet. Who knows- but, I certainly hope it ISN'T Bayh.
August 3, 2008 9:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is it a certainty that the Republican lieutenant governor would take over if Kaine became VP?
I wasn't familiar with Kaine but was left with a favorable impression after watching his interview with Charlie Rose last week. I haven't seen him in a confrontational situation though. The nominee should be somebody who will be strong, clear, and concise in debates (formal or otherwise). I think that rules out Daschle. Feingold would be my choice but as I mentioned elsewhere, I doubt if he is in contention.
Hillary and most of her supporters have had enough time to heal that picking someone like Sibelius might not create a giant schism but my sense is that she won't be the one.
August 3, 2008 10:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Kaine I liked early on. I still think he'd be a strong campaigner. However, on some levels I just don't think he brings it as someone I'd like as a President- which is ultimately what I think one asks of a VP. He's a bit green.
I agree Sebelius is a strong choice. Her cred meshes well with Obama's. I really don't think we want someone super outspoken. Feingold could fall into that, however, he seems very thoughtful when speaking. I think he'd be an effective attack dog without worrying about loose lips. Ditto with Schweitzer, who I'd also love. Schweitz has some great cred as well.
An outsider like Mabus is a possibility. Though his last name could be a problem (ref. The One). I don't think Chet Edwards is unreasonable.
I don't like the whole VP bringing a state argument, but Carahan could actually bring it in MO. The Carahan name is pretty big there (from what I here).
August 3, 2008 10:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
er, Carnahan name, that is.
August 3, 2008 10:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Feingold has great presence of mind when he speaks. He's probably made a gaffe at some point but I'm not aware of it.
I'm sure it's just wishful thinking (but wouldn't it be great..?)
August 3, 2008 10:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, it sure seems like a winner in my book. I can see several ways Feingold is an asset and not too many that detract. The only one was is his liberal record, which I would argue is equally libertarian. I guess his strong stances on public financing and FISA could be bumps in the road, but I don't see the MSM jumping on those too much. Feingold could actually do the opposite and help shore up those areas. Kind of see he doesn't have a problem with it sort of approach. I think Independents would like him nationally as well, he gets their votes in WI. He's a budget hawk and sits on the Foreign Relations committee. He covers a lot of ground.
He's the only Senator that makes sense.
Oh, and regarding Kaine, it is a certainty that the Republican Lt. Gov would take over. Though it would only be about a year from Jan. 20, 2009- I believe. However, there are term limits in VA so Kaine wouldn't be able to run again after this term.
August 4, 2008 12:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
I like both Kaine and Sebelius. I think that each has weaknesses, but by the same token both have strengths and I think that, in balance, each of them is more an asset than a liability. Mostly, though, I like the idea of a governor. I am far cooler to the idea of a ticket made of two senators.
August 4, 2008 12:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think McCain's choice is going to be dependent on Obama's - even if that is a horrid way to chose a VP candidate, it's all about getting into the White House right now for the McCain staffers - it's like a game to them.
If Obama goes somebody young and without national security credentials, I see McCain doubling down on that area and choosing a VP with national security gravitas/experience and then playing the fear/danger card. People will vote safety/security over economy ten times out of ten, and if McCain could frame Obama/VP as weak on security, he'll win.
If Obama chooses somebody with national security gravitas, McCain will choose a VP certain economic credentials and then run on a "Strongest on Security/Strongest on Economy" campaign while undercutting Obama for abandoning his "Change" mantra by choosing a Washington insider.
Obama runs into these problems because he's letting himself get framed/defined by McCain, while not attempting to defend himself or at least do the same to McCain.
August 3, 2008 10:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
You might be right that he intends to wait and see who Obama picks before he makes a decision. Hard to see how it will give him an added advantage though. Since the McCain narrative is entirely a work of fiction, does it matter which actors he casts in supporting roles? What he really needs is somebody different to play the lead.
Anyway, it appears the Republican strategy is less about marketing McCain than depicting Obama as unmarketable.
August 3, 2008 11:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, he will absolutely wait it out. The GOP Convention is after the Democratic one- so he has the luxury.
Jonze, you make some really good arguments as far as foreign policy experience and Obama's choices. McCain certainly seems to be emphasizing that over everything else. McCain does have a real problem on the economy, if the debate ever gets back onto that, so I could see him shoring that up as well.
It will definitely be interesting to see how this plays out. Kinda like chess.
August 3, 2008 11:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Re: Mabus - I like the idea of a southerner and I like the idea of a Governor. Ideally we would find someone from Georgia or North Carolina because those states are more on the knife's edge, but Mississippi is good too.
Re: Carnahan - Russ Carnahan is my congressman and you cannot have him. I am sorry, dear Joseph, but just as I am sure that you would be reluctant to part with Keith Ellison in order to install him in the gilded cage of the VP's mansion, I am unwilling to let go of Russ Carnahan unless you want to put him somewhere genuinely important (like the senate, or the supreme court or somesuch).
August 4, 2008 12:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, I like the idea of a southerner as well. Something about a black man and a southern white man just seems kind of poetic- healing the past, coming full circle, the dynamic of it.
Glad to get some input on Carnahan. I was hoping you would weigh in, MO Voter. I don't know much about him, but seeing yourself endorse him so strongly says much in his favor.
And, no, you can't have Ellison! :)
August 4, 2008 10:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
i'm president of the feingold fan club, but i don't think he's got a chance -- jewish (but not observant -- is that a plus or a minus?), twice divorced (which still counts if you're a democrat) and too librul -- why he doesn't even welcome the national surveillance state!
August 4, 2008 1:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well Feingold's two divorces would put certain focus on McCain's divorce - so I don't think the GOP would even want to touch that issue. Unless Russ did something worse that leave his wife because she was deformed in an auto accident and cheated with a woman 20 years younger than him, who was loaded making her a trophy wife and him a kept man.
I think Feingold is eliminated because A]he's a dirty liberal and B]Obama "skirted" Russ' own campaign reform legislation.
August 4, 2008 2:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, I've never heard Feingold mentioned outside the comments here at TPM. Too bad, although the upside is he's needed (and more like him) in the Senate.
So Jonze, as I'm certain you are aware, the McCain camp has confirmed your prediction that they intend to wait for Obama's VP choice. Congrats.
August 4, 2008 3:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Huffington Post item today predicts it's going to be Bayh, to be announced on Wednesday. Not exciting, not historic, but makes sense and fine by me.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/bil-browning/obama-will-name-bayh-his_b_116752.html
August 4, 2008 3:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Huffington Post item today predicts it's going to be Bayh, to be announced on Wednesday. Not exciting, not historic, but makes sense and fine by me.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/bil-browning/obama-will-name-bayh-his_b_116752.html
August 4, 2008 3:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Huffington Post item today predicts it's going to be Bayh, to be announced on Wednesday. Not exciting, not historic, but makes sense and fine by me.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/bil-browning/obama-will-name-bayh-his_b_116752.html
August 4, 2008 3:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bayh isn't the most dynamic candidate around but didn't he do a good job of putting Lieberman in his place on MTP a couple weeks ago? Might end up being a good choice, somebody who can refute the McCain camp's crap without getting rattled.
His voting record is about as middle of the road as it gets.
http://www.ontheissues.org/Senate/Evan_Bayh.htm
August 4, 2008 4:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bayh - great, another DLCer back in charge of the party.
August 4, 2008 3:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
I have no more positive enthusiasm for Bayh than you have, but I do have to wonder if it is really fair to characterize the vice presidency as "in charge of the party." It seems to me that if (God forbid!) something were to happen to Obama and Bayh were to end up as president, that would indeed be regrettable. On the other hand, most presidents finish up their terms of office without the vice-president ever ascending to the Oval Office. In that light, we might be looking at Bayh as a means to pick up some electoral votes in Indiana without his DLC tendencies ever making much of a difference policy-wise. In other words, I think that your complaint here is a touch exaggerated.
August 4, 2008 5:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's not a sure bet it's going to be Bayh, although the fact that Obama is appearing with him in Indiana Tuesday and told the press to plan on staying over until Wednesday gives the impression that it MIGHT be.
Any ideas who McCain might pick to counter Bayh? Still hoping for Bobby Jindal, personally (yeah, I know it won't happen).
August 4, 2008 5:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hope its not Bayh. Not a fan of his voting record. Certainly not a fan of his early Iraq stances. He's milquetoast. However, as Trapper John writes in his diary, perhaps that's what Obama is going for. Someone that won't steal the spotlight. In any case, I'm hoping for better. If we're looking for a bump, I really don't think Bayh is gonna bring that.
Regarding Obama's schedule- it looks as if Obama is in Indiana until late afternoon. After that it's kind of speculation. The comment that he could be staying in Indiana until Wed.- sounds like a subtle way of saying it may be a long night. So perhaps, he will announce Tuesday night? Or, really anytime Wednesday would still give his choice plenty of airtime until Thursday night Opening ceremonies for the Olympics. If it's Wed. for the announcement that is still plenty of time to fly to some other state, etc to announce.
Bayh is a red herring imho.
Is the issue of the week- energy -a clue of sorts? Bayh seems to have made it an issue on his website. But plenty of others could fit into the energy meme. Also, I'd like to note that Obama's appearances in the Midwest have me wondering, if not Bayh, someone else in the Midwest?
Finally, after the talk of the day on TPM being campaign finance reform, I can't help but think, wouldn't it be great to have Feingold point out McCain's horrible abuse of the that system?
August 4, 2008 10:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Crap-- apparently Obama is in Ohio tomorrow and then in Indiana on Wednesday, both places for town halls. A townhall to announce a VP? I don't know. I think he is coming to a fundraiser in Minneapolis on Wednesday night.
To the convention?!
August 5, 2008 12:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
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October 5, 2008 4:20 PM | Reply | Permalink