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Obama and OffShore Drilling
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/state/content/state/epaper/2008/08/01/0801obama1.html
This may be the smartest thing I've seen him do. I understand people have qualms about it, but with 75% of the electorate for offshore drilling in one form or another, this could have killed his campaign. The key is reading SPECIFICALLY what he said. I've read through his energy plan, and he's been calling for something similar along these lines for a while.
There are several things to note:
1. He is for offshore drilling ONLY in a comprehensive plan (which the republicans would never allow)
2. This is classic "Bill Clinton" triangulation, and that was surprising.
3. Remember, he's not giving the profits from this to the oil companies. He's planning on taxing the windfall profits and giving 1000 to families and 500 dollars to individuals. This is going to prevent that issue from lining up.
4. He just massively negated McCain's stranglehold on the issue. McCain can't call him a flip-flopper because he did the exact same thing.
5. Folks, this is the only thing holding McCain's campaign afloat. This is not a good day from the Senator from AZ.
Thoughts?
This may be the smartest thing I've seen him do. I understand people have qualms about it, but with 75% of the electorate for offshore drilling in one form or another, this could have killed his campaign. The key is reading SPECIFICALLY what he said. I've read through his energy plan, and he's been calling for something similar along these lines for a while.
There are several things to note:
1. He is for offshore drilling ONLY in a comprehensive plan (which the republicans would never allow)
2. This is classic "Bill Clinton" triangulation, and that was surprising.
3. Remember, he's not giving the profits from this to the oil companies. He's planning on taxing the windfall profits and giving 1000 to families and 500 dollars to individuals. This is going to prevent that issue from lining up.
4. He just massively negated McCain's stranglehold on the issue. McCain can't call him a flip-flopper because he did the exact same thing.
5. Folks, this is the only thing holding McCain's campaign afloat. This is not a good day from the Senator from AZ.
Thoughts?
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I'm sorry, I forgot to note that this may be part of the VP choice he's picking. Look at who's supporting offshore drilling. Hint Hint Hint.
August 1, 2008 8:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
I felt the sense of impending doom drop the moment I read the Tampa press release.
VP... Who's supporting offshore drilling?
August 1, 2008 8:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Kaine, Warner, Webb, Durbin, Levin, Conrad, Nelson, Feinstein, Lincoln, Landrieu. Unknown of any others.
I'm highlighting Webb and Warner.
August 1, 2008 9:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
You should be highlighting Kaine.
August 1, 2008 10:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually expect McCain and the MSM to frame this as "another Obama flip-flop" by this time tomorrow.
"Barack had said no to off-shore drilling, now he says he would agree to it - What does Barack Obama really stand for? Will he govern by the polls?"
Obama gives the American people way too much credit especially when the media is complicit in it's dumbing down.
August 1, 2008 8:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Doesn't this also take away the meme that he can't admit when he's wrong?
August 1, 2008 9:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Obama gives the American people way too much credit especially when the media is complicit in it's dumbing down."
Giving credit to the American people is risky business. The sub-prime mortgage crisis and credit card debt are but two examples.
But what can we expect when we're looking at the dumbing down of a population as dumb as that of America?
August 2, 2008 5:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama's response was pathetic. Full stop. No way to tart this up, at all. It shows no imagination, no reframing, no active engagement with McCain. And this in a field where that would have been easy. It reads like the worst of the sort of policy wonkery dullard Democratic advisors have produced for years. I swear to God, I'm wondering where the brainpower in his team went. Just rerunning T-Boone Pickens ad with Obama pasted across it would have been 100 times better. Yes, he'll get blasted for flip-flopping (because he is), and I actually don't care on this one if McCain gets a "free pass" for his flip-flop, because the POINT is, there was absolutely NO need for it. It's just policy wonk dullness. I mean, read this bloody sentence.
"If, in order to get that passed, we have to compromise in terms of a careful, well thought-out drilling strategy that was carefully circumscribed to avoid significant environmental damage - I don't want to be so rigid that we can't get something done."
That's wretch-inducing. COMPROMISE... CAREFUL... CAREFULLY CIRCUMSCRIBED... blah blah blah. Utterly defensive. You see, it's not that I'm upset about the shift on offshore drilling (I disagree with it, but it doesn't upset me that much.) It's that it's so PATHETIC as a policy or POLITICAL response. For God sakes, hire T-Boone's PR people. Clearly, they know more than Obama's.
August 1, 2008 9:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
I completely and utterly disagree. There are actual 527s out there who were ready to slam Obama on this. This is a tactical move meant to prevent McCain from gaining any ground on this issue and prevent the whole "More Foreign Oil" angle that McCain ran in the Britney ad w/his face next to it.
I still say it's brilliant but many people may not.
August 1, 2008 9:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
The thing is, Obama cannot respond defensively to everything the Republicans throw at him. I understand the need to "close the gap" between himself & McCain on most issues, and leave just a few major policy differences for the electorate to focus on. I've argued FOR that here.
But the big ones he's SAID he wants to differentiate on were - Iraq, Health & Energy. And while I'm no world-class expert on the first two, I sure as shit am on the last one. He COULD have run a dozen different ads on this, and kicked McCain's ass. T-Boone gave him a perfectly good model. But instead, his statement today reads like it was done by the typical insider political advisor-types, who've "triangulated" a cautious "compromise," itself built on policy papers put together by committees of weak-kneed "experts," and thus drained of life to begin with.
He COULD have shown a map of the US, and the ever-expanding drilling over the last century, with a chart showing how it's peaked & is now drooping... as drilling gets further & further out into the boonies, alaska & offshore. And then said.... "But does anyone think this will solve our gas price problems TODAY?" And then shown oil drills & pipelines & terminals & refineries being built, and just said, "The experts say this will take 10 years to get to market. That's too little... too late. You need help NOW..." And hit his pitch.
Or better yet, his dullard advisors could just have shown a map of the Bakken Formation.
It's in Montana & North Dakota - two states OBAMA wants to win, two states with a fair chunk of support FOR drilling. Why show this field? Because it has FAR more oil than Alaska. And it's much closer. Easier to get to. Which means... FASTER to get out of the ground. Obama could then pose in front of the rigs already there, and talked about how McCain wants the offshore stuff because the big oilco's own all the leases there, while in the Bakken, there's a lot of little guys. And farmers. Who face a shortage of RIGS. He could even have pointed to the wind-farms in the distance, and said, "This is part of my MADE-IN-AMERICA energy plan. Oil we can get to now, and without risking oil spills. Wind, right here, right now. Solar. GM's new plug-in electric "Volt" vehicle, made in America. And to help your family GET there, $500-$1000 per family."
I swear to God, I've seen the nuts & guts of these campaigns, and this just plain ole second-rate, defensive stuff. Sure, he may be afraid of opposition. Sure he may have VP buddy he wants to appeal to. But his team just plain MISSED this one. It happens. But it's not a good sign when they do. Because Obama's left to hang his ass out there, on a BIG issue, and say..., compromise... cautious.... careful..... blech.
And is he gonna get bitten for flip-flopping? Hell yeah. Should he? Hell yeah. Did McCain flip-flop too? Hell yeah. But nobody gives a damn about McCain, because Obama's the one who's supposed to do better, be better. And this time... he wasn't. Not by a long-shot. This. One. Stunk.
August 1, 2008 10:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
T Boone Pickens is a swiftboat-backing dirtbag, I don't think Obama is going to want to be linked to anything with that man.
August 1, 2008 10:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Jonze. Yes, T-Boone is what you say he is, plus a side-order of pigshit, ok? But. Just watch his ad, one more time.
Then compare it with the statement Obama put out today. This is T-BOONE PICKENS SAYING, EXPLICITLY, THAT WE CAN'T DRILL OUR WAY OUT OF THIS. What in God's name is happening when WE'RE not running an ad this good, but instead, putting out mealy-mouthed claptrap that sounds like it was put together by a committee of knock-kneed, 23 year old policy dinks who've never fought for or won anything in their life.
Why aren't we offering an ad that's BETTER than T-Boone's?
August 1, 2008 11:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Mucho thanks for expert input from someone who has zed expertise. Of course I like your points because they confirm my feminine intuition (or something similarly voodooish, not sure) about how friggin stupid national politicians are not grabbing the most incredible opportunity of a lifetime (or more than a few lifetimes) to lead a majority of incredible variety of classes and incomes and across the entire political spectrm exactly where they want to go but don't know yet where it is they should go, they are just standing there holding their breath, because no one will pick up the damn parade marshal's baton, and say "ok, march, this is where we're going to go and it's going to work."
August 2, 2008 1:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
I dunno. Strategically it may be just what the doctor ordered. Mis/uninformed voters tend to believe that the offshore drilling meme is a good one. Sure, they'd love it if there was some form of alternative energy that is readily available and in a form that's ready to be and/or easily consumed, but that just isn't the case. So yes, Obama could go the T Boone Pickens route of airing ads with windmills and solar panels... but the average person, even if enticed a little, will ask one question: "how in the hell is a windmill and a solar panel gonna work in my [insert car model here]?"
So, although the windmills and solar panels may seem awesome to you, me, and many other liberals (and that red flag should make you question whether the Pickens ad is having the intended effect at all), it probably won't resonate with Joe Mainstreet. Meanwhile... Obama presses for alternative energy while simultaneously saying, "but in the meantime, let's play the off shore drilling game and see what happens." What happens? Well, now that people can stop fussing over the act of offshore drilling, we can now focus on the results. And there won't be any. So off to alternative energy we go. Hopefully ;)
August 2, 2008 12:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
You're right on the tension, J - and right that there's NOTHING that can magically fill 300 million people's gas-tanks, or hack the price of gas in half. The thing is, Obama's been saying that - but without really presenting any bright/shining future on energy. His plan is kinda.... stale, actually. Both the short & the longer-term. His staff seem weak on this - to me. Which left McCain to repeat a simple and stupid and untrue) line on offshore drilling - and gain traction. Done properly, he could do a T-Boone on the crisis, the longer-term actions, the cash-in-hand now, and on what offshore & onshore drilling could accomplish. But because what he's put out to date is so weak - far worse than T-Boone's - he's ended up playing from weakness, being defensive, on what he has stated is a major issue for HIM. And now, responding late, moving toward McCain.... it looks, and sounds, weak - and it needn't have been. That's my aggro here, not that it's the "wrong" move to make in itself, or that I'm deeply outraged about drilling offshore in itself (though it ain't a magic bullet, and may be kinda dumb in fact.)
It just coulda been so much better.
August 2, 2008 3:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
Agreed. I'd love to see more "there" there with Obama's energy plans and the way he talks about them. Simply saying we're going to invest in alt energy is like saying we're going to invest in an AIDS/HIV cure. That's awesome. And yet, people still have hiv and any real-world cure always seems just around corner, until you get around the corner.
I dunno. Maybe that's just it. Maybe the "bright/shining future on energy" we're longing for Obama to lead us into starts very simply. Nothing at all sexy to it, unfortunately. But I'm with you. He still needs to at least try to dress it up to look sexy. And the Pickens ad may serve as a good experimental way of going about this. We'll see...
August 2, 2008 9:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you, calchala, for your post. As a Floridian, I went apoplectic when I heard Obama's statement about offshore drilling.
All the comments here offer valid points. This is a complex issue on many fronts.
It was really bold for Obama to make his statement here in Florida today. With members of Congress fashioning a bipartisan comprehensive energy bill I don't think he could have continued digging his heels in on this. Triangulating was indeed the wisest strategy for relaxing his position on offshore drilling. True, too, drilling off our shores is not necessary. There are other options. But, unfortunately, Obama is speaking largely to morons. There isn't enough money to educate them between now and November.
Now that I've calmed down a little and can think coherently, it seems unlikely drilling will happen within 50 miles off the west coast of Florida. We have some very lively groups here who will pull out all the stops to make sure it doesn't happen.
In the meantime, stakeholders should write letters to editors and policymakers and remind them about safer sites like the Bakken Formation Quinn mentioned. More importantly, though, the focus needs to be directed to mass transit and encouraging people to start changing their lifestyles to adapt to a new paradigm.
August 1, 2008 11:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Right. The key is not whether he believe in it or not, because he doesn't (I've watched him TODAY speak about how it's still a bad idea). It's just taking the issue off of the table.
August 2, 2008 7:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nice spin but the dems were just waiting on the big oil checks.
They will cave like FISA.
Barry is Kerry.
August 1, 2008 11:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Maybe in word. Not in deed. Not this time.
August 1, 2008 11:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, no less a peak oiler than Matt Simmons is for exploratory drilling of the ANWR and the OCS, but by the government, so they know what they have, rather than simply handing all the rights to Big Oil on the cheap. If this is what Obama recommends, then it could be a good way to take the wind out of the 'drill more' sails.
August 1, 2008 11:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Compromise with movement is an art. Obama is only saying that he will consider or could support it with the inclusion of many other strong measures on a new direction for energy policy in this country.
I read practical leadership in his position here. I do not see a "Sell out" or Cave in". This move in his position is to gain a whole more of what we need on nergy than what we have lost.
Leadership means he can govern folks.
August 2, 2008 1:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
V. Compromise with movement IS an art. In many of his speeches, I listen to him laying the seeds for later moves, but recognizing that only so much can be gained - or even discussed - at this time. I tune in 6 weeks later.... and he's moved. And yes, this is a key part of governing.
But remember the original, the 1st "V." Who knew when drama, symbolism, visuals, magic - even conflict - was required. Perhaps all Obama is doing is shutting down a debate he doesn't want to have right now. If so, fair enough - that's politics, this is my ox being gored this time, and so, I need to suck it up, right? But when I see what even T-Boone can do... and know how close to home this issue hits for so many... and how GOOD & EASY the visuals are to put together.... well, I feel as though he & his advisors have lost a moment.
Which is perhaps why the rest of us "V's" out here need to get our acts together, don our masks, and get to work, eh?
August 2, 2008 3:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
He will be labeled a flip flopper, I'm really getting fed up with Obama. Looks like we're gonna have 4 more years of Bush after all. Maybe Hillary should have been the nominee.
August 2, 2008 1:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, 'cause Hillary wouldn't have triangulated at all.
August 2, 2008 2:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
I generally agree with your post, although I don't think we should count on the MSM for logical consistency. But I also think the "flip-flopper" charge has lost its potency from overuse. I think both McCain and Obama have figured that out.
It doesn't really bother me when Obama brings the reality of compromise to the campaign trail. It's the reality he'll face if elected. It's consistent with the idea of not making promises you can't possibly keep. And it amplifies the bipartisan image, which McCain hasn't done well so far.
I think quinn's perspective is reasonable too, though. In other words, I think there was a chance for effectiveness here with both the triangulation approach and the reframing approach. I'm starting to wonder if Obama's not erring on the side of triangulation (a less elaborate operation, with less chance of error and dramatic external misrepresentation) lately because he knows that, this election, the current will carry him if he just minimizes objects of resistance.
August 2, 2008 2:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
I don't know if this is true but I heard he was only running to stop Hillary from winning the nomination and his whole campaign is a joke. It's been said he is supposed to lose and from what I have been seeing and hearing from him, I'm beginning to believe it.
August 2, 2008 2:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
And you're an idiot if you believe that
August 2, 2008 10:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
Actually he's not going to be labeled as a flip flopper. Check Abc news. McCain is taking credit for his change. If he calls him a flip flopper later, well McCain will look like an idiot (more of one).
August 2, 2008 2:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
I agree with your overall sense that this was a smart move.
But I don't quite agree with this comment. This kind of contradiction presents no obstacle in politics. Your opponent is always damned, whether he do or whether he don't. And once he do, he's damned both for flip-flopping and for waiting so long to do it.
August 2, 2008 5:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
They'll try, but the Gang of 10 thing only came up yesterday. It's a new compromise after weeks of gridlock.
I agree, it was a smart move. They'll still attack, but I do agree this negates the idea that Obama is going to be inflexible and not help out Americans with gas prices. For many voters who don't understand the facts, this negates one of the few reasons to vote for McCain.
August 2, 2008 8:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Also, all the caveats are a good thing. Since the GOP won't compromise on many of these issues, they'll kill the idea, and Obama looks like the one willing to compromise until the GOP stonewalled. It becomes the GOP's fault again.
August 2, 2008 8:16 PM | Reply | Permalink