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Obama gains 2 points in Gallup Daily Tracking
In the first of Gallup's Daily Tracking polls (based on a 3-day rolling average of data collected in phone interviews conducted in late afternoon/early evening hours (daily sample of 1,000 adults)), to include a window in which respondents will have viewed convention coverage, Obama has moved forward slightly, polling at 45% to McCain at 44%, with a margin of error of 2%.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/109873/Gallup-Daily-Race-Still-Close-Obama-45-McCain-44.aspx
Perhaps, the beginning of a very modest bounce. Tomorrow's results will include respondents who had the opportunity to view Warner (yawn), Schweitzer (fun!), and Hillary (...mixed reviews?).
I predict Obama takes another 1 point lead tomorrow and yet another point on Friday reflecting reaction to speeches from Bubba and Biden tonight.
That leaves the impact of Obama himself, which won't show up in the polls until Saturday - which you have to keep in mind are tricky polls to interpret as people are often not home on weekends - and note that this is a holiday weekend. Full impact of the convention won't be apparent until you look at the Daily Polls for next Mon and Tues, I'd say.
After that, you'll start seeing the impact of reaction to the Republican Convention.
That's my 2 pennies!
http://www.gallup.com/poll/109873/Gallup-Daily-Race-Still-Close-Obama-45-McCain-44.aspx
Perhaps, the beginning of a very modest bounce. Tomorrow's results will include respondents who had the opportunity to view Warner (yawn), Schweitzer (fun!), and Hillary (...mixed reviews?).
I predict Obama takes another 1 point lead tomorrow and yet another point on Friday reflecting reaction to speeches from Bubba and Biden tonight.
That leaves the impact of Obama himself, which won't show up in the polls until Saturday - which you have to keep in mind are tricky polls to interpret as people are often not home on weekends - and note that this is a holiday weekend. Full impact of the convention won't be apparent until you look at the Daily Polls for next Mon and Tues, I'd say.
After that, you'll start seeing the impact of reaction to the Republican Convention.
That's my 2 pennies!
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Call it the Michelle Bounce!
August 27, 2008 1:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Check out pollster.com for the Obama campaign's opinion about the quality of the Gallap polls, the daily one in particular.
They claim it is totally meaningless. I tend to agree with them.
August 27, 2008 4:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Saw that.
We talk a lot around here about not reading too much into daily polls - Plouffe was actually saying the same thing about the State polls. Even in the primaries, the Obama camp said that they rely on their own internal polling to develop their strategy - which I'd say is smart policy, of course.
But, I wouldn't go so far as to say that polls, whether at the national or state level, from external outfits are meaningless. They have their limits and have to be interpreted accordingly. Problem is, their results are reported and the fine print is ignored, and no one really understands all of the caveats that go into their interpretation.
My approach is, so long as a particular polling outfit has a fairly solid reputation and a consistent methodology, you can use their results like an index - to track how the two campaigns are doing relative to one another. In that sense, I don't think these polls are worthless, they certainly give us useful information. But, yeah, I would say that Plouffe would not be doing his job terribly well, if he was planning campaign strategy based on what Gallup and Rasmussen are pumping out there day to day.
August 27, 2008 5:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think yes!
I saw your post after I did mine...sorry about that...
August 27, 2008 1:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Also, McCain is doing his best to keep the bounce from Obama's Thursday night speech to a minimum by naming his running mate on Friday so he is really trying to take the news cycle from Obama as soon as the convention is over.
August 27, 2008 1:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
And he does have the Press eager to keep that invitation to the tire swing open, doesn't he?
I don't think the sway that he holds over the MSM is strong enough, however, to neutralize the bounce completely. Nate Silver, based on a trend analysis from past Conventions, suggests looking for a 3 to 6 point bounce overall. If we see a steady one point per day gain between now and Friday, that would leave another 3 points to gain between Saturday and Tuesday.
Could happen - all depends, as you say, on what the MSM decides to cover and on how they cover it, which has been heavily favored towards McCain.
Let's see what kind of a punch Obama/Biden can land here and how well they can sustain it with a less than friendly press.
August 27, 2008 1:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here's the link to Nate's article where he discusses the trends in post-convention bounces, if anyone's interested:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/what-convention-bounce-looks-like.html
August 27, 2008 1:48 PM | Reply | Permalink