Sigh. Is that all you got, McCain?
Election Central reported that the McCain campaign was sinking a decent amount of cash into showing the now-infamous Britney/Paris ad around the country.
I know that I'm supposed to understand that this ad is a genius ad, with all the subtle imagery included in it, and it might be, but I have some questions about it.
1. Why did the McCain take ownership of this? The RNC should have done it. McCain has provided Obama with a nice opportunity to keep saying "McCain keeps running ads about Britney Spears, and I'm out here trying to help you. Who do you want as President?" He'd have less of an opportunity to make that point had the RNC run the ad.
2. Who were the focus groups? There's a short story in today's McClatchy claiming that the ad might be hurting Obama, but when you read it, there's just not much there.
The study says:
But the results that may have been most telling were the changes in whom the participants would vote for and suggested that such advertising could have an impact, especially among independents. Before viewing the ad, 75 percent of the Democrats said they would vote for Obama. After viewing the ad, that percentage was 72, while undecideds rose from 13 to 15 percent and those favoring other candidates rose from 3 to 4 percent.So 75 to 72? And it goes on:
Similar results were recorded for Republicans and Independents. Republican support for Obama dropped from 8 to 6 percent, while McCain's percentage remained unchanged at 74 percent. Undecideds rose from 16 to 18 percent, however. Only among independents did the drop in Obama's percentage, from 44 to 43 percent, accrue to McCain, whose support went from 33 top 34 percent.In other words, the ad had no effect. This is a tiny study (N = 300+), and maybe the ad will have a cumulative effect, but right now, I don't see the advantage for McCain. He's spending money to show this, he's tied directly to it, it provides a great soundbite for Obama, and the effectiveness of it remains in question.
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Oh, and here's the link to the story:
Data is murky on whether the ad actually works
August 2, 2008 12:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
I like the title of this post. The ad probably does work. But "is that all you got?" is a good summary of why we shouldn't be freaking out.
This ad isn't being run by a 527 org called Britney Fans For Truth. It's not even being run, as you point out, by the RNC.
It's being run by the guy whose brand identity is supposed to be that he's the straight-talking adult in the race. Last week, he basically spent all of that credibility on a couple of ads.
Moreover, apparently, this is all he's got. There has been no discernible positive messaging from the McCain camp.
He's making himself very vulnerable to a counter-punch that links him to Bush by painting him as the "same old negative politics." Meanwhile, we have a built-in structural advantage in the late game. After the convention, McCain's spending is going to be limited to public funds. But Obama will be able to spend as much as he wants.
August 2, 2008 1:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
And the ad came out now, which means, I think that either Obama will have plenty of time to counteract it, or, it will have plenty of time to sink in to the public consciousness.
How's McCain going to get attention after the convention?
August 2, 2008 2:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
I read an interesting article the other day, (I am getting old and senile and don't remember where :) ) that basically said that at every other crucial time in McShame's career where he had really pulled a boner and gotten caught that he is all contrite and humble in front of the media admitting his mistakes. It argues that this is where he has endeared himself to the media and that it would not surprise them if after the conventions that he "fires" some of his advisers, says that he is ashamed of the tone of his campaign and goes back to the "straight talk express". The media would give him a pass as they have always done; but the underlying damage would be done so he could have his cake and eat it too. Makes sense to me.
August 2, 2008 6:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think McCain is a ruthless man and has decided that rove is the way to win. He's probably right, especially since the obama campaign is pulling a kerry. This is not a popularity contest. All mccain has to do is turn the undecideds in the swing states. These are the low information voters who are suspicious of Obama to begin with and will believe the kind of crap mccain is giving them.
August 2, 2008 6:45 PM | Reply | Permalink