THE BOUNCE BEGINS
I follow my last post about how much I hate polls with a post about how much I love today's Gallup: Obama 48, McCain 42.
I apologize for my hypocrisy.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/109897/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Moves-Ahead-48-42.aspx
I apologize for my hypocrisy.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/109897/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Moves-Ahead-48-42.aspx
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I wish they'd post this on the main page, because there is more than meets the eye here.
I did some quick math to try to figure out how Obama has polled since the beginning of the convention, and it shows that Obama is polling WAY ahead of McCain.
On Aug 26, McCain had a 46-44 lead. This is the result of a 3 day tracking poll including results from Aug 23-25. The previous tracking polls were essentially tied at 45.
So, we can infer that McCain polled significantly better than Obama, probably around 48-42, on Aug 25 to pull ahead by 2.
Since then Obama has moved to a 6 point lead, including poll results from Aug 25 - 27.
Since the Aug 25 polling results are still in the 3 day average, we can determine the average daily polling for Obama on Aug 26 and 27.
That number turns out to be 51-39. 12 point lead. And that doesn't include polling after last nights speeches.
My guess is that Clinton supporters have come around and that tomorrow 3 day tracking poll will show Obama with at least a 10 point lead.
August 28, 2008 2:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
But Sparky McCain and his wonder campaign have predicted a 15 point bounce. Anything less will spell DOOM for Obama.
August 28, 2008 2:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
So when we get the Saturday numbers, including the results from Obama's speech tonight, this prediction of a 15 point bounce might be the one thing the McCain campaign has been right about all year.
August 28, 2008 2:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
That prediction was the biggest joke ever. They don't want to be right. They want the bounce to be lower to make it look like Obama isn't meeting expectations. Luckily the MSM hasn't even given the prediction a lot of attention.
August 28, 2008 2:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, of course. They're trying to set unreasonable expectations.
But on this, I wouldn't mind them being right.
August 28, 2008 2:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Make that the second thing. I believe it was this year that John McCain said, "I don't know as much about the economy as I should."
Or something like that.
August 28, 2008 2:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Call it the Clinton bounce.
August 28, 2008 3:49 PM | Reply | Permalink