Today's polling data makes clear that the spectre of a 269-269 Electoral College tie looms large over the 2008 presidential election.  Today's polls are generally positive for Obama - but one poll now shows McCain with a lead in New Hampshire.  As it happens, a McCain victory in New Hampshire leads us to the most plausible scenario of a 269-269 tie.  That is, Obama wins all the Kerry states but NH, adds the Gore states of IA and NM, and also CO.  Another less likely but possible scenario gives NH and NV to Obama, CO to McCain.

Yes, of course a tie would (should) make Obama the president after he is elected by a Democratic-controlled House of Representatives.  If (as I believe it should be), electoral votes were automatically awarded to the winners in each state, that would surely happen.  But the possibility exists of "faithless electors" - even just one - switching their vote to the other candidate. Who is to say that right now, some group is not investigating the individual electors in every State, looking for a person who might be intimidated or bribed into changing their vote?  While I wouldn't accuse the McCain campaign itself, surely there are fringe right-wing or racist true believers who would not hesitate to go that far.

I am not sure what can be done right now to head off this possibility - except that we should be aware of it.

For the future, I favor retaining the individual voice for each State that the electoral vote system provides.  But the people's vote cannot be allowed to be overriden by a single individual elector.  So keep the electoral vote, dump the Electoral College.

Check out the current electoral map at Real Clear Politics (where today's George Will article is linked from) to see just how possible a tie is.  Just put NH in McCain's column.