A Little Perspective
For people wondering why Obama has not "closed the deal" by trouncing McCain in the polls (so far), I offer two observations that should provide a little perspective.
First, imagine January 20th, 2009, with a black man being sworn in as President of the United States. The historic importance of that achievement cannot be overstated. No one wants to inject race into the campaign (at least not officially), but a side-effect of that is neglect of the storyline about the monumental obstacles Obama seeks to overcome. He is turning Martin's dream into a reality. Who ever imagined such a feat would be easy?
Second, consider the numbers. Despite his enormous and obvious failures, Bush's popularity never sinks much below 30%. That means 30% of Americans will NEVER vote for a Democrat, no matter what (we all know some of these people and why this is the case). On the other hand, at his most popular, just after 9/11, Bush's approval ratings hovered around 90%. That tells me that about 10% of Americans will NEVER vote for a Republican. That leaves about 60% of the electorate whose opinion might possibly be swayed, one way or another. To get the polls to 50/50, Obama needs to reach 2/3 of these people. He's done that and then some, so how much more can we expect? Even if it's a landslide, this election will be close.
Tweak the analysis how you want, the point is obvious. Obama has climbed the mountain. The next 40 days is about helping him take the last step to reach the summit. Let's stop asking why the air's so thin. Eyes on the prize. (Insert additional metaphors and mix liberally).
First, imagine January 20th, 2009, with a black man being sworn in as President of the United States. The historic importance of that achievement cannot be overstated. No one wants to inject race into the campaign (at least not officially), but a side-effect of that is neglect of the storyline about the monumental obstacles Obama seeks to overcome. He is turning Martin's dream into a reality. Who ever imagined such a feat would be easy?
Second, consider the numbers. Despite his enormous and obvious failures, Bush's popularity never sinks much below 30%. That means 30% of Americans will NEVER vote for a Democrat, no matter what (we all know some of these people and why this is the case). On the other hand, at his most popular, just after 9/11, Bush's approval ratings hovered around 90%. That tells me that about 10% of Americans will NEVER vote for a Republican. That leaves about 60% of the electorate whose opinion might possibly be swayed, one way or another. To get the polls to 50/50, Obama needs to reach 2/3 of these people. He's done that and then some, so how much more can we expect? Even if it's a landslide, this election will be close.
Tweak the analysis how you want, the point is obvious. Obama has climbed the mountain. The next 40 days is about helping him take the last step to reach the summit. Let's stop asking why the air's so thin. Eyes on the prize. (Insert additional metaphors and mix liberally).
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It's a good post... Thanks.
I do think that race is a huge issue in this election and I'm surprised that nobody is talking about it. Here in Kentucky we have more counties than any other State (or Commonwealth)with 120. During the Democratic Primary, 118 of them voted for Clinton with only 2 counties going for Obama. In eastern Kentucky exit polls showed 1 in 5 voters said race was an issue. Remember that these 20% were the ones that were honest enough to tell the truth... I have to imagine the actual number is higher than that. And I realize Kentucky may not be indicative of the rest of the country, but it's a good example for southern states... and mid-west states...
I just think the general public isn't "plugged in" to all this politics 'stuff'... they simply don't take the time to care... and they will vote for the old white guy because that's what they've been conditioned to do. President's are old white guys, right?
Having said that... I still think Obama's going to win.
September 25, 2008 2:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thansk for your comment. I think he'll win too, and after the fact people will acknowledge the significance of this moment and of race in the election. I don't necessarily think it should be an issue in the campaign, just that people shouldn't scratch their heads about why Obama's road is so tough.
September 25, 2008 3:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Rec'd. A little perspective always helps. No additional metaphors at this juncture.
September 25, 2008 2:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
I appreciate the rec. This is just my second post (the first was an incoherent mess). It's not easy to do and you're one of the best at it around here. Nice to hear you found something useful in this one.
September 25, 2008 3:15 PM | Reply | Permalink