I've lived in Eastern Europe for 12 years (including 6 months in  Moscow). With the debate on foreign policy debate on Friday, I thought it would be a good idea to address some issues that I've had the opportunity to study up close.

Georgia will play an important part in our Russian policy for years to come.  It is a small, mountainous country on the Black Sea with a population of about 4 million people.  Although they were a Soviet Republic, they are not ethnic Russians and have a vastly different culture and outlook. 

In 2003 they had their "Rose Revolution."   This was basically a disputed election, similar to the "Orange Revolution" that followed.  The outgoing regime was hopelessly corrupt and basically operated as a Russian Vassal state. Mikail Saakashvilli won and vowed to reform the country. 

Following the Rose Revolution, Moscow immediately rendered sanctions and made their intentions to crush the Georgian economy (Russia imported about 80% of Georgian exports).  Speaking from first-hand experience, the Russians were amazingly open about this.  They closed the border, rendered harsh trade sanctions and travel restrictions.  Anybody living in Russia with a Georgian name (which are quite distinctive) was persecuted.

Saakashvilli acted quickly (some would say harshly) to reform the country.  He fired most of the previous government and replaced them with young reformers.  His basic premise seemed to be that everybody working in the old regime was corrupt (which as best as I can tell, was true.)  He replaced the old gaurd with young, English-speaking reformers.Corruption was no longer tolerated.  ( I once sat next to a key Saakashvilli political ally on a flight from Kiev - in coach). 

What followed was an economic miracle, with the Georgian economy growing about 8% per year and attracting foriegn investment that was never thought possible.

Last year, the Russians dropped their sanctions and started financing political opossition and forcing elections in January 2008.  Saakashvilli won again, and took some criticism for heavy-handed tactics in the process. 

In the months following the elections, Russia started taking a renewed interest in the Semi-autonomous regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia - increasing the numbers of "peacekeepers" and offering Russian passports to residents.

Some FAQ's: 

Who started the conflict:  Russia.  I was in Georgia in May and it was clear that war was coming, although most assumed it would be in Abkhazia.  Russia had been amassing troops for months before the conflict began and had made it's intentions clear.

Is Saakashvilli crazy?:  No, but hotheaded for sure (it's a common Georgian trait).  Georgians are quite aware and open about his advantages and shortcomings.  They admire him for his effective reforms, but also acknowledge that he is less than a perfect democrat.  Most of the Georgians I have spoken to are in favor of him and concede that some much of his heavyhandedness has been necessary, although not preferable.  Many Ukrainians wish Yushchenko could have been more like him.

What areas are under contention?:  There are three semiautonomous areas in Georgia:, Adzaria, Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Adharia doesn't border Russia (although it does border Turkey) and is basically calm.  The two disputed areas are Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which do border Russia and many have been given Russian citizenship.

What is the problem with the disputed areas: Georgia is a mountainous, tribal country and there are some ethnic issues that need to be worked through.  Moscow has a peacekeeping role in both disputed areas dating to conflicts that broke out over a decade ago.  Since the Rose revolution, Moscow has stirred up the ethnic conflict and made clear their support for independence.

Should we support Georgia?:  Absolutely!  They are a soveriegn country and aren't really asking for much except to be allowed to exist.  The fact that they border Russia shouldn't affect their soveriegnty.  They also border Turkey, Armenia and Azerbaijan, so it is unclear why Russia is claiming special rights with regard to their internal governance.

What strategic interests do we have in Georgia?  To get oil from the Caspian Sea, it pretty much has to go through Georgia, through Russia or through Iran.  Another issue is Ukraine and the naval base in Sevastopol, which is leased to Russia until 2017.  Russia has been using similar tactics in Ukraine, expecially Crimea (offering Russian passports, etc.).  Finally, NATO allies such as Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria (as well as Ukraine) are also on the Black Sea.


NATO Enlargement: Georgia overwelmingly supports joining NATO.  There are two issues in their way.  The first is that Germany is blocking their ascension, although Merkel says she would consider the idea in the future.  The other, more complicated problem is that there is very little popular support for NATO in Ukraine, and expansion is problematic without Ukraine.

What should we do?:  Georgia isn't asking for much.  It is a small country and, without Russian interference coould be successful on it's own.  They are really more similar to mediteranean countries than slavic ones.  They are reknown for their hospitality, wine and food and would be a popular tourist destination (world class skiing and beaches) if it weren't for their precarious geopolicical position.

They need short term economic aid to rebuild after the destruction of the war and long term military aid (probably about $2 Billion/year). Georgia is a mountanour country which is easier to defend than attack.  They need more sophisticated comminications that can't be so easily jammed by the Russians, a country-wide anti-aircraft shield and more effective anti-tank and anti-helicopter weapons.

If there was ever a country that deserved our support, it is Georgia.