Also read up on "likely voter" methodology. The polls are going to be even further off than they were during the primaries since many of the people voting for Obama won't be polled.

Polls are designed to create a given narrative - The Horse Race. They only call those voters with land lines who have voted in the last two years. They are manufactured opinions. They are propaganda. One more reason not to worry.

why is someone a concern troll for being concerned?

you may think all is well and the polls are all wrong for whatever reason, but they are not!

when they all show a direction towards mccain you can bet your ass that is the way the vote is going.

and if you are not concerned and worried even, then you are a fool troll.

McBush has PO'd the press.

A fatal mistake.

its a signal that all is not right.

There's never any situation in life in which all is right. So in that sense, you're correct.

But life is too short to focus on the negatives instead of looking at how the negatives and the positives balance out. And exaggerating negatives, such as cherry-picking the worst polls and not taking margins of error into account and so on, isn't facing reality either. In the case of concern trolls they want everyone not to face reality, but instead to focus on these exaggerated negatives until everyone feels doooooooomed.

And life is too short to get all eaten up inside over things that haven't happened yet and may not happen. Being aware of ways that things can go wrong is one thing. Letting concerns over things that might (or might not) go wrong later overshadow positive things that are happening right now is, again, not facing reality in exactly the way concern trolls want us not to face reality.

For "concern troll" you can substitute "wingnut" and the same thing is true. But then, that's the role that concern trolls play is dressing up bogus wingnut arguments in concernful tones.

The reason you don't need to be concerned is because Obama's strategy is sound and it will succeed. Forget about McCain's attacks. Forget about charges of sexism. Forget about fears that Obama is not hitting back hard enough against the smears. Obama's entire campaign strategy is built around registering new voters and getting them out to the polls. Think about that text message notification they sent out when Obama picked his running mate. That was a brilliant move on their part. They now have a huge database of mostly unlisted cell phone numbers, all of which will get a reminder message on election day about how vitally important it is to get out and vote. These people are under the radar. They're not being polled. They're new to the database and will remain so through election day. They are quite literally, Obama's secret weapon. His November Surprise.

Obama is registering new voters and a massive, overwhelming rate. And these voters are young, they're motivated, and they're Democrats. Meanwhile, the Republicans are stuck with a static base that's only getting smaller.

Take nothing at face value this time around. The ground game is where it's at. The stuff you see on television is not where things are happening. The real race is all back-end, nuts-and-bolts stuff. Ignore the noise. This WILL be a landslide.

The biggest problem Obama has is not McCain/Palin, but himself. He comes across too much like an ex-professor, however easy going. He relates well to people who want to think about issues or who are desperate for a political alternative to Bush, and see "hope" in that, but falls flat with those who are primarily looking for a personality connection. The latter is the key to leadership and to getting votes. Those reports of smaller town whites who have trouble "relating" to him, even among people who normally vote Democratic, should be taken seriously. It's much less about race than style.

from your mouth to God's ears. I too feel that the Obama campaign is bottoming and the McCain campaign is topping, I mean what could possibly be revealed now that would improve Palin's image? Only more skeletons to be discovered.

On the other hand, I am concerned. President Palin with her fingers on the nuclear button ought to be of concern to everyone. But I an not certain (from the interview with Gibson) that she's a war monger, she was just channeling Lieberman, repeating the lines she memorized.

Listening to the same interview I could plainly see that she's an empty vessel, but I am not sure if "independent" voters would see that, or just be impressed that an ordinary "hockey mom" could hold up and speak smoothly on national TV without collapsing.

One of my colleagues is from Florida. Her parents are lifelong Republicans. They were ambivalent, probably leaning McCain just because of party affiliation. After the Palin pick, they are now voting Obama. We need more stories like that.

TJ

Bravo quinn! I wish I could recommend your comment. It's quite going against the grain here isn't it, but what you did is necessary to let TPM find its voice again.

What a lot of posters don't get is that campaigns need information and feedback, lots and lots of it, to gauge the effectiveness of their message, the medium of communication and to carry their strategies further. The Republicans call theirs their "Voter Vault" - I think they hire Blackwater contractors to guard this stuff.

This feedback for the most part takes on two dimensions - quantitative and qualitative, and they're both expensive to commission. The Polls cover the quantitative aspects but you need qualitative information to understand the Polls. Qualitative info are usually garnered from focus groups, but in a campaign of this magnitude, the internet is a handy tool for both quantitative (albeit limited and less accurate sampling) and very much qualitative information sifting. It is critical to Dean/Obama's strategy to catch up with the Republican's information advantage - it's especially effective for donations, networking, organization and GOTV, but I suspect they survey the political pundit sites for information and especially feedback.

It's great to hear from people who think you're doing a smashing job but it is even more critical to listen when credible bloggers raise concerns. Yes, those would be the concerned trolls. The net's the equivalent of several huge pools of focus groups. If the campaign sees the Polls going a certain direction, don't assume that they will panic and criticism will "demoralize" them, they urgently need to hear WHY, particularly from those who withold their votes, stop giving to the campaign or the undecideds who go with McCain. They don't need cheerleading, they're adults. It doesn't take a leap of imagination to register that Obama needs to hear MOST from the people who are reluctant or who are not giving him their votes.

In any focus group, you'd dread the few loud voices who attempt to control the group and shape the message because that would distort the feedback. There will be those who think differently but are too intimidated to speak up or they're simply drowned out. You won't get the true picture, and that defeats the usefulness of the group for gleaning insight. In the real world, you usually plant a moderator to reinstate the balance.

It's the same for major political blogs. Have fun after November going at eachothers' throat, but meanwhile, it is important to hear from those who feel uncertain about the campaign's approach, who express doubts, to hear their analysis, things they've heard from family and fellow workers about the ads, about Palin, etc. There are some outstanding posters on TPM, if there are former campaign planners and strategists here, I'll guess Lalo? Though we were on opposite sides, I remember a particularly insightful exchange with him. I'm sure he's as unflappable as his avatar's get-up, but it'll be a shame to see him go the way of tankard if the piling on doesn't stop.

We're not eachother's enemies here, there isn't a Conspiracy of Concern Trolls to sap the energy from Obama's campaign. Talk, discourse, argument, all is good, but better, to back them up with substance, logic or facts.

Me, I'm thin skinned. I come back occasionally to lurk, but the insults have gotten to me and I've stopped posting. I still WANT Obama to win in a blowout this Nov., no question!

I posted a version of the following in response to a certain troll.... But this is why I'm not worried yet. There's a lot of work being done in my state of Michigan (one of the important ones in this campaign).

For the first time I hosted a neighborhood registration drive for Obama/Biden at my place yesterday. It was pouring rain. I didn't think anyone but a few would show up. But 16 did.

They walked around for almost three hours in the pouring rain. They got 20 people registered to vote, and would've gotten more but most people they saw were registered, and were enthusiastic about voting for Obama.

The would've been out longer, but the local sirens when off. It was a tornado warning. A tornado was spotted, and it was headed in our direction.

A couple people ignored it, kept on registering. Frantic attempts were made to call their cells. They did get back eventually. They didn't seem too concerned about the sirens.

We set out our 20 registration forms to dry. I got towels to the soaked, offered the shelter of our basement since that's the place to go for a tornado. They didn't go hide. They just stood around and chatted. Everyone, though having spent a Saturday afternoon getting soaked to the bone, was in an upbeat mood.

I found out that we beat one other city group that day in registrations, but better yet, another group beat both of us.

Also found out that our mid-sized city isn't the only one to get Obama groundworkers in Michigan. There's work being done to do something with the little towns, majority Republican and conservative towns.

I generally agree with this post but. . .

Did you see InTrade today?

It is the first time I remember seeing McCain with over 50% to win the election.

Kind of freaked me out.

Qwerty. Respectfully disagree. YOUR comment should be a post. We need to hear ALL the feedback, all thinking about it, AND then everybody's ideas on ways to move forward. Uncensored, unquashed. Some Rah Rah rooms are great, people seem to need them, but they needn't hammer everything else down. And if nobody has any new info or insights or ideas, then hey - great! We all rest easy. Otherwise, bring 'em on, I say. Anyway. Fire that shot of yours again sometime.

Cheers quinn! I find it a blessing in disguise to get out there on other sites as it's really quite addictive to hang out with people who are share the same views here on TPM. My time not spent here has been spent on other sites where I'm engaging Republicans who are leaning McCain but are truthful enough to acknowledge their Party has let the country down, in other incarnations.

I'm not seeking converts, but common ground. It's up to them to vote their conscience, and they do have one. I'm also listening to them, they offer interesting insight as to how they perceive the battle of the campaigns. You're so right about the economic issues being their biggest concern, and they *know* things are bad. Obama will win a debate on the economy against McCain-Palin hands down, it's so obvious he has the wind on his back with every bad news from Wall St.

I don't like the die-hard Dems reacting to their provocations and trading insults, it doesn't win votes for our side. By steering the back and forth to calmer waters, we're all talking to eachother, not at eachother. Reason will prevail - they too want what's best for the country, and they're open to our thinking. And they're civil.

In the end, it's more important to go after the votes that Obama hasn't got in the bag. After November, I hope to get back here to pop a bottle of champagne with the TPMers. Glad to see you watching the backs of the ole regulars, they're gold.