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Is SUSA Poll showing Independents liked Palin B.S.?
Something seems wrong with the <a href="http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=36ee8fde-58bf-4027-a75b-b29d86b66b92">SUSA poll</a> that, frighteningly claims that independents and moderates have been strongly swayed favorably by Palin's speech.
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Something seems wrong with the SUSA poll that, frighteningly claims that independents and moderates have been strongly swayed favorably by Palin's speech.
The Claim:
The Problem: Question 1: "Did you hear Sarah Palin's speech at the Republican National Convention last night?" 75% answered Yes.
Am I right to be calling b.s. on this...?
No way 75% of a truly representative sample of registered voters, independents or moderates, heard Palin's speech!?!? The ratings were good but they were not that good!
C'mon... this cannot be valid representative sample of the general American voting public, independents or moderates? It has to be skewed to those predisposed to want to tune in, oversampling those predisposed to be swayed favorably, those already Republicans or Wingers.
796 ot of 1061 in survey say they heard the speech.
75%!?!? WTF?!?!
The Superbowl and the final episode of MASH combined did not do that good.
The only methods explanation I see is:
FYI - other demographics of poll group = Overall% (Heard Speech%):
Male = 48% (49); Female = 52% (51).
Age: 18-34 = 29% (26); 35-49 = 28% (29); 50-64 = 26% (26); 65+ = 18% (19).
Race: White = 76% (78); Black = 10% (9); Hispanic = 8% (7); Other=6% (6).
Party affiliation: Rep = 36% (40), Dem = 33% (29), Ind = 26% (27).
Ideology: Con = 34% (39) Mod = 38% (38) Lib = 14% (12).
Income: $40,000 = 70% (72).
Region: Northeast = 19% (19) Midwest = 23% (22) South = 36% (36) West = 22% (23).
Now, I suppose they did some statistical adjusting. Maybe. Perhaps.
But if the original sample is hopelessly biased in the statistical sampling sense, then it is B.S.
Right?
Is this poll invalid or what am I not getting that validates it?
September 5, 2008 12:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
Oy... I don't seem to be able to publish diaries here correctly... so full diary is in first comment.
September 5, 2008 12:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
They juiced the question. They didn't ask if the respondents would be more likely to vote for McCain, they asked if respondents would think she is an asset to the campaign. Most focus groups seemed to report independents being turned off by the over-the-top attacks. But I imagine, they did see how someone who attacked like that could be valuable.
It looks like a softball poll designed to give McCain an immediate boost and drive the narrative of a horse race. They found a question they thought most people would say "yes" to.
September 5, 2008 1:56 AM | Reply | Permalink