Lead!
We are facing the worst economic crisis since the 1980's. WaMu just set a record as the "Largest U.S. Bank Failure Ever." (Mazel-tov, WaMu.) Investment titans are on the knees, the ones that haven't gone under or been torn apart. Debt is at a historic high. Credit is tight. People are losing their houses and their jobs. Everyone is angry. Everyone is afraid.
And at a long serious table in the White House, three men who would lead this country, one at each end and one in the middle, sit impotent. George Bush is despised by two-thirds of the country. Would that he had had the grace to depart in 2006 when the majority made clear that it no longer trusted him to run the country. He is President now only by virtue of the office. The two who would replace him sit quietly while the economy roils, plotting subtle jabs and symbolic gestures, arguing about television schedules. Their positions on the bailout are...vague. Somewhere between "we must act now" and "the plan still needs work." Be careful, candidates. You wouldn't want to say the wrong thing. The bailout might not work, so you don't want to own it. But you can't have us think you're fiddling while we burn either. Gotta do something. Can't commit to anything.
Fuck that. If you wish to lead, now is your chance. The lame duck can't fly. The parties are divided. There is no one to step up but you. We don't need any namby-pamby joint statements about how seriously you take this crisis. We don't give a shit whether you debate tonight or next Wednesday. We don't care about the status of your campaign ads. We need a plan. We need you to talk to us and tell us what has to happen to avert this crisis. We need you to bend the legislators of your party to your will. We need you to go back to that long serious table, not to participate in a process, but to make a deal. We need you to lead!
And at a long serious table in the White House, three men who would lead this country, one at each end and one in the middle, sit impotent. George Bush is despised by two-thirds of the country. Would that he had had the grace to depart in 2006 when the majority made clear that it no longer trusted him to run the country. He is President now only by virtue of the office. The two who would replace him sit quietly while the economy roils, plotting subtle jabs and symbolic gestures, arguing about television schedules. Their positions on the bailout are...vague. Somewhere between "we must act now" and "the plan still needs work." Be careful, candidates. You wouldn't want to say the wrong thing. The bailout might not work, so you don't want to own it. But you can't have us think you're fiddling while we burn either. Gotta do something. Can't commit to anything.
Fuck that. If you wish to lead, now is your chance. The lame duck can't fly. The parties are divided. There is no one to step up but you. We don't need any namby-pamby joint statements about how seriously you take this crisis. We don't give a shit whether you debate tonight or next Wednesday. We don't care about the status of your campaign ads. We need a plan. We need you to talk to us and tell us what has to happen to avert this crisis. We need you to bend the legislators of your party to your will. We need you to go back to that long serious table, not to participate in a process, but to make a deal. We need you to lead!
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Actually, I do care that they debate tonight. In the debate they won't be able to avoid taking a position on this.
September 26, 2008 10:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
Destor has the perfect photo for what I want to say. I interrupt this programming for HYSTERICS, a Drama Queen.
The image of NOT A LEADER:
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/09/a-woman-has-to-say-it-mccain-m.php
Genghis, feel free to post this at your blog if you like. I think, in all humility, that I've got the pitch perfect MEME to brand mcShame as not a leader, unless you count leading people off a cliff via HISTRIONICS!
September 26, 2008 10:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks a lot, TheraP. It's cross-posted here.
September 26, 2008 11:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
My primary interest is no longer finding out where the candidates stand. I want them, in particular I want Obama, to take a stand. It's not the same thing. And whether it happens in a speech, a debate, or a blog at the Cafe doesn't matter to me.
September 26, 2008 10:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, according to Joe Klein over at Swampland, Obama was at least engaged at that table "peppering" Paulson with questions, which seems to me the right thing to do. McCain just sat there like the dullard he is.
I'd like Obama to take a stand too, though. No bailout unless we get stock.
September 26, 2008 10:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
And in my view as long as mcShame seizes the "drama" it's very hard for anyone to solve the problems that face our country. Very difficult for Obama to maneuver. Or anyone! The tantrum is taking precedence - and we need to short-circuit that, in my view.
September 26, 2008 10:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
Fuck McCain and his hysterics. Obama can take the spotlight back if he takes decisive action.
September 26, 2008 10:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
To do that he would need to stop campaigning. He would need control over the media. He would need to neutralize both bush and mcshame.
His best bet comes tonight.
September 26, 2008 10:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
Genghis! Dropping the hammer! Well done, and agreed. My only hesitation is that the financial world can be gamed a fair bit, not so much by individual investors (who might not be willing to blow enormous chunks of cash to score political points), as by the Governments' arms themselves. Wheels within wheels here, and Obama's team is likely advising real caution, just to protect against politically-driven financial traps. Nonetheless, LEAD!
September 26, 2008 7:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
One other thing. It's almost impossible to know, right now, without all the inside info & a team working on it, how big the problems REALLY are. The risk then is that your plan is adopted, and the thing STILL fails. You're toasted. Nonetheless, a leader's option might be to spell that out, and stand on it anyway. As it is, Obama's backing into office a bit. Same as in the final months of the primary. It makes electoral sense, yes. But you risk leaving a bigger mess that you then have to clean up later.
September 26, 2008 7:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain is absolutely pathetic, of course, but peppering Paulson is not sufficient either. Asking questions is important, but you ask questions in order to decide on a course of action. Obama needs to make that decision, communicate it, and execute it.
September 26, 2008 10:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
Tonight's the night.
I think of that song from Westside Story:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5_QffCZs-bg
I pray he comes through for us, Genghis!
(meanwhile mcShame will do everything to disrupt!)
September 26, 2008 10:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
You do realize he isn't in a position to "execute" anything as the junior senator from Illinois, right? I suggest we keep our expectations in line with reality.
September 26, 2008 10:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you, sir. I'm all for reality.
September 26, 2008 10:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
As the Democratic nominee, he is in many ways the leader of the party which, along with the bully pulpit of the media spotlight, gives him a great deal of power. That's why he was seated at one end of the long table. I would like him to exercise that power.
I realize that he does not control the Treasury Department or the Republican party.
September 26, 2008 11:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
By all accounts, he has been doing that. Dodd and Schumer sure changed their tunes pretty quickly from the first interviews I saw with them. That new attitude was very reflective of Obama's first statements. I guess I see strong leadership in places you don't.
September 26, 2008 1:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
And my primary interest is making sure mcShame does not get elected.
But I totally respect where you're coming from here. And I applaud that.
We can work in tandem. You goose Obama. I'll soften up mcShame.
Both are needed at this moment.
September 26, 2008 10:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
Sounds kinky
September 26, 2008 10:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
:) !!!!
I did give you a Rec by the way.
Kinky certainly fits in with "histrionic."
(but not with me)
September 26, 2008 10:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
Please advise what word you prefer instead of meme.
I'll defer to your better judgment in this matter.
September 26, 2008 10:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obama has taken a stand, basically backing the Dodd-Frank plan. He has also worked behind the scenes to unify the Democrats fo quick action and suggested in his phone call to McCain on Wednesday morning rallying both parties to common principles for the sake of quick passage.
The crisis is real, urgent and NOT contained to the "Wall Street investment firms" so many people here suggest.
When banks won't lend to each other because they have no idea what's on the other's books, banks fail. When banks fail, other banks fail. When lots of banks fail, we call that all the ingredients necessary for a Depression. Yet inflation is spiraling and will continue to do so in a scenario worse than the stagflation of the 1970s if the crisis is not arrested.
The $700 bailout is not a bailout in the usual sense of the word. The Treasury will eventually recover most of its investment or even profit if the Democrats get their way.
Don't blame Obama. This deal was almost done before McCain rode to the rescue and injected politics right where it doesn't serve any purpose.
September 26, 2008 10:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thus my focus on the "histrionics." I agree with your assessment.
September 26, 2008 10:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ripper, the Treasury will only recover its money if it demands preferred stock in exchange for taking on these liabilities. And they are liabilities. if there's no assurance of a full recovery this is just a giveaway.
September 26, 2008 11:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
Destor, could you make an appearance at my blog (linked above)? Just to put your avatar there. To give people a sense of what I'm talking about when I say hysterical, histrionic, Drama Queen.
I'd be ever so indebted to you.
September 26, 2008 11:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
destor, the value of wealth that would be erased if more banks collapse is monumental compared to the difference between buying the toxic mortgages at a discount or at a premium. Either way, Treasury recovers at lest 50 cents on the dollar, and the Democrats are only willing to risk $250 billion outright before reassessing the program. If you doubt this, consider that WaMu's $300 billion in assets just collapsed on the strength of only about $20 billion in bad mortgage loans. Gee, I didn't think Americans could afford to lose so much over so little.
Thus, the bailout is not much of a giveaway.
September 26, 2008 11:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
But Ripper you will concede that selling this to joe bag of donuts is a bit problematic. He is sitting on a house that has lost value. Just seen his 401k go in the tank and is about to see his company close up shop. Giving money to guys that ride around in Limo's and go the Hamptons every weekend is a pretty hard sell.
But that sell must be done. And to do that you need a vocal leader that can get out and connect with the people of this country. We don't have that guy or gal in any fashion right now.
September 26, 2008 11:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
see my response at 11:40 below.
September 26, 2008 11:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
Whose wealth?
September 26, 2008 11:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
If a given bank fails due solely to the fact that it cannot obtain credit from another bank, is it not possible that the lending bank was extremely wise not to offer credit?
It is not immediately clear to me why I should offer my $700 billion of tax dollars to the troubled bank when its peers refuse to do so.
September 26, 2008 11:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
Because banks have a fiduciary duty to shareholders, not to society at large. In others words, the fact that bank boards want to protect their asses is no indication they care about what happens to yours.
September 26, 2008 11:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
And what happens when the "bank" is our Federal Government and the "shareholder" in this case is the American citizen? Should not I still be protected?
Where I am going with this, Ripper, is to try to convince you to rethink your position because it is totally wrong. ;D
Any bailout that socializes the banks' losses, and particularly losses of this magnitude, is a travesty to some of the core principles on which the United States was founded. I am disgusted that my tax dollars will be funding this charade.
September 26, 2008 11:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
1) The losses that you say will be private ones will in fact, be losses to the public if the banks fail completely, as some may still do. Municipalities, sewer districts, utilities and pension funds all are investors in and have stakes in the health and stability of our banking system.
2) If the program as outlined by Democrats passes, $250 billion would be budgeted for the program before any more could be spent without review, not the $700 billion under the original Paulson plan. That $250 billion is only slightly more in today's dollars than was spent on the S&L crisis of the late '80s.
3) If you're wrong, we are fucked to the tune of WAAAAAY more than a few hundred billion. You included.
September 26, 2008 12:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
In response to #1) So it would then be correct to further socialize the losses? I can make a disclaimer: I have money in the market, and I have lost quite a bit, and I stand to lose more before this whole mess is over. But my loss, and my fear does not justify the bailout. How can you possibly have the conscience to ask Joe Blow taxpayer, making less than 30k, who never decided to risk his money and invest in those banks, or those institutions that chose to invest in them, to subsidize bad business decisions to the tune of $2,300 (at 700 billion) or any amount for that matter? I can not. To the point of Genghis' original post, he is asking for leadership from Obama. That sure would be nice. I, at least, will display my own form of leadership by sucking up my personal losses and opposing the bailout in whatever meager way I have available to me, because it is fundamentally wrong.
In response to #2) You actually bring up a good point which I (and others) have been considering a lot lately - namely the S&L crisis. We truly are now seeing "more of the same". The parallels between our current crisis and King George I's in the 1990s are truly astounding to me. Does it EVER stop, Ripper? Should I be expecting another 15-20 years until the American taxpayers are asked again to absorb the bad bets of a Bush friend? Maybe Jeb in 2025? When will one more time be one too many for you? For me, it's right now.
#3) I steadfastly avoid the claim that foregoing a bailout will not cause pain. It will cause pain. It will hurt. To use your language, I "will not" be fucked - I already have been. So please explain to me how infusing banks with cash directly translates into helping me and other taxpayers make our mortgage payments?
Also, if and ONLY if you feel comfortable sharing this info, may I request a disclaimer? In light of the fact that any bailout news would surely have a dramatic effect on the markets, I do believe it is only fair for you (and others too) to clearly state if you stand to make an immediate financial gain on market recovery that would result from a passed bailout proposal if you are going to write in support of said bailout. I do not make this request because I suspect you personally of disingenuity - I don't think anyone could reasonably claim that of you - but as you are a professional journalist I am sure you understand that such a disclaimer should really be offered.
September 26, 2008 12:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Injecting cash into banks won't help you pay the mortgage. That's why Democrats have been trying to get provisions for mortgage relief and economic stimulus included in the plan. If you think you stand a better chance under the party that gave you this crisis, have at it. But of course, don't come whining to me when that doesn't work out so well—again.
September 26, 2008 1:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here you crystallize one of my final and perhaps most crucial thoughts on the matter:
What part of either mortgage relief or economic stimulus require a bailout for the banks?
I hear lots of talk about limiting executive-level compensation, and/or opening mortgage loans to be "renegotiated" by the judiciary. In a nebulous sense, both seem like reasonable ideas to me, though I am not completely sold on either. HOWEVER - I do not see any way these types of concepts or the ones you propose would necessarily require hundreds of billions of taxpayer dollars to be sent to banking institutions.
To address your other concern - namely supporting Republicans? Frankly, the bailout to me seems like one of the most "Republican" things ever conceived. Taking money from those who have little to none and giving it to those have made millions? FDR must be spinning in his grave.
September 26, 2008 1:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's not an either/or proposition. Mortgage relief and an economic stimulss do not contradict a bank bailout. So what purpose does a bank bailout serve? Injecting the liquidity into financial markets that is the basis of everyday transactions at the level of your business and your pay and the "full faith and credit" institutions must have in each other to lend money. Short answer: If the banks fail, no matter how bad off you are now, your dire straits will make you want to pick up a cheap gun at the pawn shop but be too broke to afford one.
September 26, 2008 6:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Almost forgot:
But apparently, society-at-large must have a fiduciary duty to banks?
In others words, the fact that bank boards want to protect their asses is no indication they care about what happens to yours.
Yet I must protect their asses?
Awfully good arrangement they seem to have here.
September 26, 2008 12:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
You're almost to the point of willfully misconstruing reality. Banks don't have a legal or financial duty to society. Society has a duty to preserve life and property, i.e., a duty to ourselves. That road runs through the financial system.
September 26, 2008 6:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't blame either Obama for the failure to come to an agreement. The key person responsible for that is Boehner, but certainly, Obama is doing more than McCain for to make this thing happen. McCain was a fucking wallflower at that conference.
BUT neither Obama nor McCain have taken ownership of this solution. Obama could hold a press conference and say, this is what we need to do and why we need to do it. He could put political pressure on the Republicans by casting them as opponents of the deal. But he doesn't want to be the deal's champion. He doesn't want it to become an albatross on his neck. He doesn't want to take any action that appears to be cooperate with a Bush plan. That's may be politically safe, but it's not leadership.
September 26, 2008 11:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
Nope, sorry, gotta disagree. You know, and I know you know, that he's been brokering the whole thing behind the scenes. He's way more effective at actually getting the job done this way. Making a speech about it would only give Republicans an excuse to polarize the talks further. And it would negate his best argument: McCain fractures the process, while Obama heals it. McCain exploits a crisis, while Obama solves it.
Obama is no wimp. This is how he is going to govern. We've got to get used to it.
September 26, 2008 6:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Feels a bit like FDR staying vague, prior to assuming office, to keep his freedom of action.
But Obama has taken a stand, just not trumpeted it widely and loudly. We were encouraged to sign a petition to give support to Dems demanding certain principles in the bailout.
September 26, 2008 11:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
Nobody is going to lead. Nobody in that town has a set big enough to take a hold of the situation. Lets dump the whole group and start over. For the love of God....We need a leader
September 26, 2008 11:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
You can hardly expect Obama to be able to lead House Republicans less than 40 days before so many of them are up for election. If McCain or Bush can't save the country when the Democrats are unified to do just that, that speaks more highly to Obama's abilities vs McCain's than anything I've seen.
September 26, 2008 11:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
Look, we are all basically of the same thought process on this blog and there is no concensus here. There has to be someone that doesn't care about their political future enough to step up to a podium and say...what we should do and why. All I am telling you is that there isn't anyone in Washington strong enough or courageous enough to do that....Outside of maybe Barney Frank. Everyone else is looking out for Number 1. This isn't rant against Obama. This is a rant against what has become our system. They all should GO.
September 26, 2008 11:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
And not to belabour the point but you've done a better job of explaining and sell this than anyone in Washington has done. What does that tell you?
September 26, 2008 11:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
THIS is why I am more qualified than Palin to be Veep. She can't even explain herself.
September 26, 2008 12:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tells me we need for the Lawyers to head home and put normal people in there that have a Clue about what the real world is about.
September 26, 2008 12:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Also, Genghis - I do sincerely and truly apologize for hijacking your thread and turning into a discourse on the bailout. I had considered writing my own post, but I believe my thoughts on the matter do not (at least yet) warrant clogging the reader boards even further than they already are.
Can you please forgive me?
September 26, 2008 12:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
No worries. But I'm not getting involved b/c I don't have time to get into it again. DF has a good rundown about why action is necessary but how it should be different from Paulson's proposal.
September 26, 2008 1:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
I saw it. Good stuff. Thanks for the heads-up anyway.
September 26, 2008 1:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
You can't lead without holding office.
First things first.
As hard as I know it is for some to believe, Obama doesn't have this election wrapped up.
What's on tonight's agenda is for the candidates to make their pitch to (literally) the middle-American -- who, as hard as it is for many of to fathom -- still hasn't made up his mind.
First things first. Obama can offer his vision, but he can't lead.
Just yet.
September 26, 2008 5:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
You're reading "lead" to literally. He can't fire the Treasury Secretary around or command troops, but that doesn't mean he can't lead. He is now in many ways the leader of the Democratic party, which controls the Legislature, and he has a national stage from which to address the American people. He is sitting back and letting others drive the intervention.
September 26, 2008 6:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think you're literally blaming Obama when it's literally clear—literally—that Joe Biden is to blame here. Literally.
September 26, 2008 6:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
He is not quite the leader of the Dem's yet... and even if elected President, he still won't be. You can be assured that Pelosi and Reid aren't abdicating anything to him.
Moreover, the Dems currently in office, while strongly supporting him in the partisan election, will be a bit more slippery when talking about real policy. After all, until Obama is elected, he is merely the Junior Senator from IL.
This is what makes politics so interesting -- can you run something without offending anyone? The Dems don't want to piss off Obama, but they also don't want to get into bed with him just yet -- until he wins.
This is nothing new in politics -- it's been going on for 1000's of years.
September 26, 2008 6:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm sure your realize Obama or McCain cannot be the ones to lead in the fleshing out of the detail of this legislation because neither of them are even in the relevant committees.
What they can do as candidates of their respective parties is voice "guiding principles". Obama layed out his that had six major items las week. Of course McCain had to copy cat on Tuesday this week though he still can't say what plan he is backing.
Of course taking the lead in this is more detrimental to the process as McCain tried to do but Obama was wise to avoid. You are way off base here in what you are expecting from these candidates at this point in time.
September 26, 2008 6:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Genghis, I respectfully disagree with the proposition that Obama ought to overtly take the lead on the financial situation/crisis/congressional reacharound.
First, you and I both know that he's taking a lead behind the scenes, counseling Dems, talking with the more rational and responsible Republicans, etc. In fact, the Dems are playing the no-drama game in a surprisingly skillful way, showing party unity along with an ability and willingness to give the other side the chance to come along and put country first (dammit!!).
Second, Obama has been far more effective than McCain. Remember, neither is on the Banking Committee, and anything either does is by definition polarizing. McCain sought to exploit this by parachuting in and then sitting through the White House meeting with a Cheshire Cat smile on his face and a plan to take some House Repugs along on the Maverick Express. His whole strategy was about riling up the base, hoping to divert attention from the fact that he's losing.
Contrast that with Obama: he ignores polls revealing that Americans are pissed at the whole thing, knowing that by letting Congress do some work for a change he'll help not only his own cause but that of Dems in general. And, oh by the way, the interests of "Main Street" and long-term market controls.
The outcome? Today, the press continues to bash Palin, gloats at how John McCain blinked both on the bailout and the debates, obliquely questioned McCain's health, and how coolly Obama has walked right past McCain looking as presidential as can be.
And tonight, tonight...I think we're going to see some fireworks. The word is that the venue is hostile to McCain, and I'll betcha Obama is going on the attack in pointed defense of America's interests over all. Too bad he can't just come right out with "country first my ass, John."
September 26, 2008 6:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
If you listened to Sean Hannity today (it's required to know thine enemy), you would have heard something quite different. In fact, he was talking about how there were more pro-McCain signs then pro-Obama signs, etc.
Now this is nothing surprising coming from Hannity, however, it should give you pause when you hear "word" that something is falling into place in a way to your own liking.
September 26, 2008 6:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
You don't have to be on the banking committee to lead. I don't expect Obama to hash out every detail. I expect him to be out front pushing for a solution and communicating with the American people.
It's important that he do this not because it will get him elected (though I think it will do that too), but because there is a leadership void. Bush has little clout anymore. Obama and McCain can push this forward if they have the cajones.
Obama is looking better than McCain today because McCain was even more of a wallflower than Obama. The Dems are unified on this. The Republicans aren't. And McCain sat in that meeting and said almost nothing while his party torpedoed the negotiations. That certainly ain't leadership.
September 26, 2008 6:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
he has- voicing his six-point "principle" since last week and calls to all relevant people that we don't know about. I think what you really want is political theater that McCain tried to pull but look how that worked out for him.
September 26, 2008 7:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Did you read my post? You've missed the point entirely. I specifically criticized the empty symbolism of McCain's debate b.s. as well as the stupid joint statement. That's political theater.
Is leadership really that hard a concept for people to wrap their heads around, or is no one willing to criticize Obama?
September 26, 2008 7:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
What constitutes leadership? If I understand your argument, the situation requires the use of the bully pulpit (yes, I know, he's not president yet, but a candidate does have at least a jolly pulpit, if not a bully one). But with all the churning and volatility and emotion roiling around in Washington, what's called for is the kind of leadership that Obama does best: getting people in the room and getting something done.
Besides, Obama knew that he'd be able to get his soundbites out tonight whether McCain showed up or not. In fact the timing might be perfect: he could catalyze public support for the Democrat's plan in just the right venue. And now he can piss McCain off by accusing him of cynically politicizing the crisis. I'd love to see the old fart blow his top.
I don't think the public would respond well to careful explication of what's happening and details about how the plan must work. It makes Obama look too smart and them feel talked down to. The debate can be a perfect place to do the opposite--give people a handhold they can believe in. And demonstrate what "change" is--not specific agenda items, but a different way of working in Washington.
September 26, 2008 7:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, and Obama's no messiah. He's not going to fix every problem in this country. He's barely going to make a dent even in the best of scenarios. He's going to do things that are flat-out wrong. But he's a great campaigner and I believe he'll be an effective president, moving us forward with global warming and social justice, and changing the conversation juuust a little bit.
September 26, 2008 7:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Of course, I also think that Obama will be an excellent President. That's why I've advocated and fundraised for him all these months. And the behind the scenes work, if he's doing that (everyone just assume), is also important. But I see no reason not to use that bully pulpit right now except for fear of political repercussions. Staying quiet and leading on the solution is the safest approach, but I think that the moment calls for something more than the safest path. That's all.
September 26, 2008 8:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
"We need a plan. We need you to talk to us and tell us what has to happen to avert this crisis."
check: his guiding principles of what the bail out should contain of six items he had put out since last week.
"We need you to bend the legislators of your party to your will"
check: by all accounts all Democratic senators, representatives and many Republican senators have no major reservations about Obama's guiding principles and more importantly an agreement on principles that contains many elements from Obama's seems to have been reached on Thursday afternoon this week.
"We need you to go back to that long serious table, not to participate in a process, but to make a deal"
check: not his place to do so because not in the relevant committees and believes "injecting president politics" would be detrimental which seems to be agreed upon by all involved hence getting a deal on the table that much more quicker.
Sounds like your picture of what needs to be done to be "leader-like".
September 27, 2008 3:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
That's almost a Billy Glad sentiment.
Consider another possibility: some of us think Obama is playing this correctly.
September 26, 2008 7:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
CT, you should know by now that I have great tolerance and appreciation for intelligent dissent, of which there has been some on this thread. But I have no patience when people don't even make the effort to listen. Admittedly, some of this is my fault for not expressing myself clearly, but to be accused of embracing political theater when the whole post is a rant against political theater, that was enough to prompt a Gladesque display from me. Anyway, I have to run. I have a debate to watch.
Much luck to Obama tonight!
September 26, 2008 8:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Um, its not the time to ponder how this would "play"....
September 26, 2008 11:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just shoot a fuckin moose and forget about it!
September 26, 2008 8:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
G, I have to respectfully disagree here. While I agree with you in principle, I see something different going on.
First, it should be noted that we have a President. Now, I know it sounds crazy, but we do. He should be fixing this, but he can't because he's so woefully incompetent that he can't even assemble his own party anymore.
I think we can both agree that thus far it appears as if dragging the campaigns into the middle of this probably has not been helpful. This is the reason that McCain's little stunt was a farce from the get-go. There's no crying in baseball and there's no stopping a campaign.
But furthermore, I think Obama is playing this correctly. I would ask you what you would rather have him do? Part of leading is knowing how to use your team. Now, if guys like Dodd and Schumer were the wrong players to tap, then he made a mistake, but from what I can see they appear to be getting the job done. That's good. That's part of sitting in the big chair. You can't be all things to all people, so you have to know how to use your troops.
Sure, he could forcefully take a podium somewhere, but to what end? The average person doesn't understand what's going on here. What could he possibly do but offer bromides? Such an act probably poses more risk than could conceivably be rewarded. His oratory skills will be best used to come to the public once the plan is good to go and assuage their fears. He's going to need to sell the country on this, and soon.
And here's the other thing: There's a lot of due concern over the current situation, but he still has an election to win. This is a finesse situation. We need Dr. J, not Shaq. From what I've seen so far, Obama is there, he's on board with the right plan, his team is on board and his star players are moving the ball forward. The other team is still trying to figure out where the goal is. He can hardly be blamed for that.
He has to come out of this not only with a win for the economy, but with a win for his campaign. That's politics, baby. It might not be pretty, but it is what it is. Self-governance is a messy affair.
September 26, 2008 9:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
BTW, I did get your message, but I haven't had a chance to respond yet.
September 26, 2008 9:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Isn't it precisely that we have a lame duck president that the two candidates need to step up? This isn't the time to be rudderless - there are two issues here which need urgent attention, 1) that attention is being paid and funds are readied to prevent a pandemic of bank runs (2) that there *must* be oversight how this huge pool of fund is used to assure taxpayers they're not bailing out the Fulds of this world.
Volcker is advising Obama and he has been through a similar season of stagflationary hell during the 70s. There was a lot of pain but he steered the sinking ship to calmer waters. I trust him far more than Bernanke and Paulsen or any of today's Dems who have been in bed with Wall St., and that means even Frank or Biden.
September 26, 2008 11:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
yes we have the lamest duck president but that does not mean either McCain or Obama can step to fill a "leadership vacuum" as complained about in this post. And I don't think the negotiations are rudderless as you say at least until McCain tried to offer his little side show.
September 27, 2008 3:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
"He has to come out of this not only with a win for the economy, but with a win for his campaign. That's politics, baby".
It's acutally more than just politics--it's poltitics in the midst of consensus that we face an economic crisis of monumental proportions. It's gonna be tricky to get a win both politically and for the economy at the same time. Politics baby indeed, but unfortunately that ain't all.
September 27, 2008 10:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
This is a most interesting and provocative post Genghis. I don't disagree that leadership is needed, and obviously as you and others have written we do have a president even if he is in lame duck status. But the reality is, of course, that lame duck status is real in the surreal environment of Washington, D.C. in which, among other things, every single member of the House is up for reelection. The simple truth is that George Bush cannot influence more than a handful of stalwart loyalists in the House.
As to Obama and McCain, they cannot help but have a role to play, but if we're leaving politics for a moment and talking about the national interest, they might take a pointer or two from a crotchety union lawyer who has been in his share of negotiations. Unless they are both going to shut down their respective campaigns and come back jointly to Washington to sit at (and around) the table, they should be spending most of their time fleshing out their respective immediate and long-term positions to the American people and they should leave the negotiating to the people who are inside the Beltway. That's not to say that they shouldn't be available, and shouldn't be on the phone with folks in an effort to facilitate a resolution, but, with respect to the Obama campaign, with negotiations like these, there is no walking and chewing bubble gum at the same time.
I think Senator Obama has taken the correct approach from a negotiation perspective. I will leave the political assessment of what he is saying out on the stump and in the debate to others. Senator McCain, on the other hand, made a clumsy and counterproductive move when he came into the the process as he did in the middle of the chaos. Again, I really want to refrain from guessing what the political effect of the McCain suspension gambit might ultimately be, but it was a sloppy thing to do in the midst of an ongoing negotiations. I don't believe the silly spin that there was a deal before he came and then he blew it, but by stepping in so clumsily at a time when there were already round-the-clock talks going on, he necessarily caused a shift in the dynamics--Senator Obama correctly pointed out that the injection of presidential politics into an ongoing multi-dimensional negotiations was probably not a good thing.
So I guess my only qualification to another most excellent and worthy post by you is that I
will caution any against presumption that, in negotiations like these, one can and should be walking and chewing bubble gum at the same time (i.e. campaigning and negotiating). If the campaigning is going to continue, and of course it will, I don't think either candidate can really help at the bargaining table, except as I have discussed above. I think they need to do the other thing that you suggest, and that is to be keeping in touch with you and me and the rest of the American people about what we need to do and where they intend to take us. Heck, not to sound corny in front of all us guys, but we really do need someone to stand up AND convince the American people that, even now, we have nothing to fear but fear itself. . .and here's why.
Nice work Genghis. You rock.
Bruce
P.S. I honestly have no idea what the bailout should look like and I'm not going to pretend otherwise.
September 27, 2008 9:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
Second to the last paragraph should have begun:
"So I guess my only qualification to another most excellent and worthy post by you is that I
would caution against any presumption that, in negotiations like these, one can and should be walking and chewing bubble gum at the same time (i.e. campaigning and negotiating)".
September 27, 2008 10:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
Anyone interested in a comprehensive debate about whether this is a real crisis and what the crisis really is, doesn't have to look far might want to check out these viewpoints:
Here's what 20+ year member of Congress Rep. Marcy Kaptur has to say: here:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S27yitK32ds&eurl
What another TPM poster and experts on a Harvard panel have to say here: http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/09/26/is_the_crisis_real/index.php
What Glen Greenwald and Digby discuss is here: http://www.salon.com/opinion/greenwald/
(just scroll down to his September 24th radio discussion)
What Bruce Marks of NACA says here:
http://www.democracynow.org/2008/3/26/homeowners_plan_demonstration_at_nyc_offices
September 27, 2008 10:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks a lot, Bruce. I missed this comment until I happened to come back. BTW, there was a great NYT article on the subject today.
September 28, 2008 7:49 PM | Reply | Permalink