Virginia going down to wire is a nightmare for McCain:
This is a state he must win; expensive advertising market; Obama has a massive field organization and a huge pool of volunteers not only from Va, but from nearby MD and DC; and hugely popular Mark Warner will be able to do more and more for Obama there as his own Senate race becomes an ever more certain victory.
Obama can't and won't win Virginia. It's just not going to happen.
We'll be lucky if Mark Warner wins a senate seat.
You're an "expert" at substituing politics and wishful-thinking for reality. Tell us again about how the Republican Party is going to again be successful at putting lipstick on a Cheney.
And how that stench coming from the White House isn't actually rotting fish.
You know nothing about me. I lived in southern Virginia and traveled extensively in the DC suburbs. Unlike you, I'm speaking from firsthand experience, not wish-fulfillment fantasizing. I have no use for such stupidity.
I have been skeptical about the polls for Obama in Virginia from the start. Now that McCain has picked Palin, the polls are heading in his direction as they would for any right-wing Christian zealot. The poll quoted in the original post has a margin of error of 3.7%. The sample is likely voters, not registered voters.
I really want Mark Warner to pick up the senate seat. But I believe it's too much to hope for Obama to turn a very closeted-racist state blue. If the Bradley effect does exist, it will show itself in Virginia. McCain/Palin will win Virginia handily. Let's please concentrate on Ohio and Pennsylvania.
But...but...he did so well there in the primary. Wasn't that a primary argument for Hillary Clinton being the only Democrat who could win PA and Ohio in the national? Because she'd won the primaries there?
I'm confused here. I thought for so long primaries showed how the national would go...
The primaries are over. Get serious already.
The irony just passed you by, evidently.
Blew right past him.
He will certainly win Virginia as well as many other previously red states. You analysis is flawed.
Your poll is flawed! Look at the internals: more democrats, 60% pro abortion, 60% moderate or liberal, no wonder you get a sudden lead with this poll. Hope it makes you feel good, the election won't.
SurveyUSA is one of the most conservative (methodology) polling organizations around. While you are searching for "internals" perhaps you take time out to look at SurveyUSA's error rate.
Perhaps the "internals" reflect a shift in the political landscape.
It's amazing what 8 years of lies and contempt will do to a Party's approval ratings.
Dog, you have been licking your ass so much that the fumes have penetrated your mind.
GET THIS STRAIGHT!
NO ONE IS PRO-ABORTION! NO ONE! Between your side and ours, WE are the ones who actually want to reduce abortions through ecucation to prevent unwanted pregnancies. It is you anti-choice cave-men who want people to have the punishment of having a baby for doing the deed of intercourse without marriage. At least be honest enough to admit that a reverence for life would include taking care of babies once they're born, a concept which you abhor!
You're nuts, blow.
Virginia is ripe for pickin'
I'll be thrilled if I'm wrong, but the polls say I'm not. Met a bunch of bigots in VA who made a big impression on me, that's all.
Hmmmm, could it be that you're hanging out with people who find you attractive?
LOL! Some say it's my charm, others say it's my dazzling wit and disarming smile. Maybe I should become a politician.
Are you aware that Mark Warner has a 70% approval rate here in Virginia?
Readytoblow, I will personally buy you a beer on the downtown mall of Charlottesville if Obama loses in Virginia.
Wow, a beer in beautiful Charlottesville sounds fun under any circumstances. Do they serve peanuts too? Virginia has the best peanuts in the world. Damn, I miss those peanuts. ;-)
Good to hear about Warner. We really need him in the Senate.
CVille, I would personally love it if Obama won VA. It would be perfect payback for having to deal with my old landlord and George Macaca Allen as governor.
I just worry, that's all. Lots and lots of military in VA.
According to an analysis of campaign contributions by the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics, Democrat Barack Obama has received nearly six times as much money from troops deployed overseas at the time of their contributions than has Republican John McCain, and the fiercely anti-war Ron Paul, though he suspended his campaign for the Republican
SurveyUSA is an automated survey using some questionable methodologies. Many publications will not factor their polls in computing averages.
The latest poll out today has it even in VA, and though I'm no great fan of Rasmussen, it's results carry greater credibility the surveyUSA.
Virginia FOX News/Rasmussen McCain 48, Obama 48 Tie
Anyone who says "we'll be lucky if Mark Warner wins a Senate seat" lacks any credibility.
And I say that as someone who thinks Virginia is still likely a McCain state, despite the polling.
According to the interactive map:
If Obama is ahead for sure in Virginia, then he doesn't need OH,FL,CO, or NM or NV, all he needs to do is win these states:
WA, OR, CA, MN, IA,WI, IL, PA, NY,ME, VT, MA, RI, CT, NJ, DE, MD, DC...
and try to win these: MI, NH, and VA and that's 272 electoral votes, plus if they win CO and NM which he probably win.
no wonder they're so cool
Which means that National polls don't mean nothing, what probably is they're polling all those nuts in the southern and flyover states.
Surely when Obama wins and get all their benefits back and a better economy they're still going to hate the Democrats like they did with Bill Clinton thanks to the lies from the right wing.
Kerry States + Virginia !
Kerry wasn't too bad after all..!
The polling methodologies do not count for a shift in the age of the electorate - the polling template is so 2004 it's self fulfilling... now that Palin is in the race, self-identifying Republicans are suddenly standing up to be counted, we're seeing an identical map to 2004.
In 2004 young people stayed home because, as south park brilliantly observed, who wants to vote for a choice between a douche or a turd sandwich. Since 2004 the other half of the baby boomlet just came of age to vote and they skew Obama. many of these polls are conducted by land line - most under 30s have only cellphones.
Also, when the polls factor in Bob Barr, the numbers really shift.
The baby boomlet is being way under-polled and they're going to put Obama in the White House!
This Virginian is voting for Obama !
Yeah, but you have a cute little dog and probably like Cappucino, so how representative is that?
(snark)
I'm going to see Michelle tomorrow at UVA! OOOOOOOOHOOOOOOOOO! Can't wait!
Virginia going down to wire is a nightmare for McCain:
This is a state he must win; expensive advertising market; Obama has a massive field organization and a huge pool of volunteers not only from Va, but from nearby MD and DC; and hugely popular Mark Warner will be able to do more and more for Obama there as his own Senate race becomes an ever more certain victory.
September 15, 2008 12:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama can't and won't win Virginia. It's just not going to happen.
We'll be lucky if Mark Warner wins a senate seat.
September 15, 2008 12:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
You're an "expert" at substituing politics and wishful-thinking for reality. Tell us again about how the Republican Party is going to again be successful at putting lipstick on a Cheney.
And how that stench coming from the White House isn't actually rotting fish.
September 15, 2008 1:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
You know nothing about me. I lived in southern Virginia and traveled extensively in the DC suburbs. Unlike you, I'm speaking from firsthand experience, not wish-fulfillment fantasizing. I have no use for such stupidity.
I have been skeptical about the polls for Obama in Virginia from the start. Now that McCain has picked Palin, the polls are heading in his direction as they would for any right-wing Christian zealot. The poll quoted in the original post has a margin of error of 3.7%. The sample is likely voters, not registered voters.
I really want Mark Warner to pick up the senate seat. But I believe it's too much to hope for Obama to turn a very closeted-racist state blue. If the Bradley effect does exist, it will show itself in Virginia. McCain/Palin will win Virginia handily. Let's please concentrate on Ohio and Pennsylvania.
September 15, 2008 3:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
But...but...he did so well there in the primary. Wasn't that a primary argument for Hillary Clinton being the only Democrat who could win PA and Ohio in the national? Because she'd won the primaries there?
I'm confused here. I thought for so long primaries showed how the national would go...
September 15, 2008 3:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
The primaries are over. Get serious already.
September 15, 2008 4:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
The irony just passed you by, evidently.
September 15, 2008 5:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Blew right past him.
September 15, 2008 7:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
He will certainly win Virginia as well as many other previously red states. You analysis is flawed.
September 15, 2008 2:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Your poll is flawed! Look at the internals: more democrats, 60% pro abortion, 60% moderate or liberal, no wonder you get a sudden lead with this poll. Hope it makes you feel good, the election won't.
September 15, 2008 3:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
SurveyUSA is one of the most conservative (methodology) polling organizations around. While you are searching for "internals" perhaps you take time out to look at SurveyUSA's error rate.
http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/surveyusa-report-cards/
During the primaries, win, lose or draw, SurveyUSA was on the money.
September 15, 2008 3:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Shit. That's bad news for Ohio.
September 15, 2008 4:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Perhaps the "internals" reflect a shift in the political landscape.
It's amazing what 8 years of lies and contempt will do to a Party's approval ratings.
September 15, 2008 5:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Dog, you have been licking your ass so much that the fumes have penetrated your mind.
GET THIS STRAIGHT!
NO ONE IS PRO-ABORTION! NO ONE! Between your side and ours, WE are the ones who actually want to reduce abortions through ecucation to prevent unwanted pregnancies. It is you anti-choice cave-men who want people to have the punishment of having a baby for doing the deed of intercourse without marriage. At least be honest enough to admit that a reverence for life would include taking care of babies once they're born, a concept which you abhor!
September 15, 2008 8:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
You're nuts, blow.
Virginia is ripe for pickin'
September 15, 2008 5:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'll be thrilled if I'm wrong, but the polls say I'm not. Met a bunch of bigots in VA who made a big impression on me, that's all.
September 15, 2008 7:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hmmmm, could it be that you're hanging out with people who find you attractive?
September 15, 2008 8:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL! Some say it's my charm, others say it's my dazzling wit and disarming smile. Maybe I should become a politician.
September 16, 2008 11:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
Are you aware that Mark Warner has a 70% approval rate here in Virginia?
Readytoblow, I will personally buy you a beer on the downtown mall of Charlottesville if Obama loses in Virginia.
September 15, 2008 8:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wow, a beer in beautiful Charlottesville sounds fun under any circumstances. Do they serve peanuts too? Virginia has the best peanuts in the world. Damn, I miss those peanuts. ;-)
Good to hear about Warner. We really need him in the Senate.
CVille, I would personally love it if Obama won VA. It would be perfect payback for having to deal with my old landlord and George Macaca Allen as governor.
I just worry, that's all. Lots and lots of military in VA.
September 16, 2008 10:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
Haven't you heard?
http://www.opensecrets.org/news/2008/08/troops-deployed-abroad-give-61.html
Short exerpt:
September 16, 2008 7:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
SurveyUSA is an automated survey using some questionable methodologies. Many publications will not factor their polls in computing averages.
The latest poll out today has it even in VA, and though I'm no great fan of Rasmussen, it's results carry greater credibility the surveyUSA.
Virginia FOX News/Rasmussen McCain 48, Obama 48 Tie
September 15, 2008 7:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Anyone who says "we'll be lucky if Mark Warner wins a Senate seat" lacks any credibility.
And I say that as someone who thinks Virginia is still likely a McCain state, despite the polling.
September 15, 2008 7:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
According to the interactive map:
If Obama is ahead for sure in Virginia, then he doesn't need OH,FL,CO, or NM or NV, all he needs to do is win these states:
WA, OR, CA, MN, IA,WI, IL, PA, NY,ME, VT, MA, RI, CT, NJ, DE, MD, DC...
and try to win these: MI, NH, and VA and that's 272 electoral votes, plus if they win CO and NM which he probably win.
no wonder they're so cool
http://www.npr.org/news/specials/election2008/2008-election-map.html#/president-userOvM/
September 15, 2008 8:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Which means that National polls don't mean nothing, what probably is they're polling all those nuts in the southern and flyover states.
Surely when Obama wins and get all their benefits back and a better economy they're still going to hate the Democrats like they did with Bill Clinton thanks to the lies from the right wing.
September 15, 2008 8:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Kerry States + Virginia !
Kerry wasn't too bad after all..!
September 15, 2008 8:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
The polling methodologies do not count for a shift in the age of the electorate - the polling template is so 2004 it's self fulfilling... now that Palin is in the race, self-identifying Republicans are suddenly standing up to be counted, we're seeing an identical map to 2004.
In 2004 young people stayed home because, as south park brilliantly observed, who wants to vote for a choice between a douche or a turd sandwich. Since 2004 the other half of the baby boomlet just came of age to vote and they skew Obama. many of these polls are conducted by land line - most under 30s have only cellphones.
Also, when the polls factor in Bob Barr, the numbers really shift.
The baby boomlet is being way under-polled and they're going to put Obama in the White House!
September 15, 2008 9:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
This Virginian is voting for Obama !
September 16, 2008 6:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, but you have a cute little dog and probably like Cappucino, so how representative is that?
(snark)
September 16, 2008 10:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm going to see Michelle tomorrow at UVA! OOOOOOOOHOOOOOOOOO! Can't wait!
September 16, 2008 7:05 PM | Reply | Permalink