There seems to be some consternation since Gallup, USA Today and others have released recent data showing Senator McCain ahead of Senator Obama in national polling.

I do believe that politics favors the paranoid, but please believe me when I attempt to reassure you there remains relatively little danger of a McCain victory despite the new data points.

Based on a model which I have devised, there quite a few available and (currently) likely paths for Senator Obama to reach the White House. Conversely, Senator McCain's footing is significantly more shaky, with critical failure points along the way. I list several of them here in increasing order of likelihood (e.g. from least likely to most likely). Senator McCain almost surely loses the election if:

He loses Missouri and Michigan
He loses Florida
He loses Virginia, Missouri and New Hampshire
He loses Ohio and Colorado
He loses Virginia and Michigan

Do not take this post to imply that your efforts to elect Senator Obama can be safely shelved - but rather simply that you shouldn't worry so much.

On the other hand, if your paranoia still reigns supreme - please consider doing something productive with it and using the states I list above to target your campaigning activities.

Thanks.