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Obama Campaign Mistakes?
I am certainly not qualified to critique anyone's campaign, but I am wondering about some decisions.
* In retrospect, not putting Hillary in as VP may have been a mistake. Not so much because she would have helped him win, but because, by not selecting her, he opened himself up to the Palin counter-move.
* Closing down the 527s - I never understood this; why shut down your allies to make a principled point?
* The Grand Tour was a little like a premature victory lap and when McCain's campaign made this point, it had the ring of truth. I wonder if that tour sucked time, resources and attention during the critical month of August.
* Spending proportionally more money on the ground game than advertising. I don't really know the $s involved, but, given the shut down of the 527s, it seems an odd choice. Especially considering the wide number of states they choose to play in. Of course, they probably know stuff I don't know, but it seems like they are trying to win the general election with the wonderful strategy that won all those caucus states.
Please convince me otherwise!!
* In retrospect, not putting Hillary in as VP may have been a mistake. Not so much because she would have helped him win, but because, by not selecting her, he opened himself up to the Palin counter-move.
* Closing down the 527s - I never understood this; why shut down your allies to make a principled point?
* The Grand Tour was a little like a premature victory lap and when McCain's campaign made this point, it had the ring of truth. I wonder if that tour sucked time, resources and attention during the critical month of August.
* Spending proportionally more money on the ground game than advertising. I don't really know the $s involved, but, given the shut down of the 527s, it seems an odd choice. Especially considering the wide number of states they choose to play in. Of course, they probably know stuff I don't know, but it seems like they are trying to win the general election with the wonderful strategy that won all those caucus states.
Please convince me otherwise!!
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1. He's got to govern after he wins. It would have been impossible for him to govern effectively if his VP was married to a former president. He cannot be president if he's got a completely independent power base stuck stuck into the middle of his administration--an alternate center of powrer that must always be soothed and kept happy lest it get pissed off or annoyed. I'm not saying this personally about Bill or Hillary--it would have been in impossible situation no matter who it was. Plus, if he'd selected her, we'd be hearing nothing but the vast mountain of filth they'd been so carefully storing up for the day she got the nomination, nonstop, and this election would now be about the 60s and the 90s.
2. 527s help Republicans more than Democrats. For whatever reason, Republican 527 lies are inherently plausible to swing voters while Democratic truths are not. Further, under the prevailing double-standard, Republicans 527s are allowed to get away with anything, no matter how vile and all the Republican has to say is "we should close them all down," while Democrats are required to vociferously reject and denounce each and every thing a Democratic 527 says. Was Bush punished for the Swift Liars? No. Were Democrats required to Reject and Denounce the Move On General Betrayus ad, yes. By shutting down the Democratic 527s, Obama made it clear that it is possible to do shut them down which is why we're seeng a lot less Republican filth than last time--McCain cannot just pretend like he can't do something Obama could.
3. Maybe. Hindsight is 20-20. But maybe not. Who knows where his CIC numbers would be in the polls if he hadn't taken the trip that McCain was insisting that he absolutely had to take. Regardless, it was hardly a critical time in the campaign. That would be now.
4. The president is not elected by the voters. He's elected by the Electoral College. We have to win states, not just a majority of votes. I would think that lesson, if no other, would be obvious to us by now. In close races, the superior ground game wins. It how Bush beat Kerry--it's how Rove nailed down Florida and turned out all those unexpected hordes of rural evangelicals to vote for Bush in in Ohio. An excellent ground game is worth 3-5 points.
Obama's ground game means we win any state that's within 2 in the last poll before the election.
And, just as a general observation, Obama's job in this race is NOT to entertain, comfort, or soothe the nerves of those of us who are aleady for him, or to do the kind of mean commercials that would validate all of our feelings about Republicans. His job is to convince people who are undecided or leaning to McCain in some combination of the ten or so battlegound states that gets us to 270 electoral votes to vote for him. What they want to see and hear or will find convincing will not always be satisfying or soothing to those of us who are already onboard and/or living in deep blue states where we never see the ads or the campaign stops or the local news coverage. Sorry. Sucks to be us, but it just means we have to toughen up and let the man do his job.
September 9, 2008 10:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
He really got his message across in North Carolina, didn't he, Steve?
September 9, 2008 10:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
1.) Obama does not and never did manage any 527 groups. They have always been free to start up or shut down as they saw fit. What Obama did say is that he did not want a slew of swift-boating type groups as part of his campaign, because they would trample on his message of changing the way we do politicking. 527s are independent groups not controlled by any campaign. It is a violation of federal campaign laws to coordinate the actions of 527s with the campaign.
The long and the short: if you want to start a 527, file the paperwork with the feds and start cranking out those ads and mailers.
2.) The "Grand Tour" was meant to show Obama looking presidential. That was what all you folks wanted. He had to go to Iraq and Afghanistan to assess the conditions on the ground, and he had to show he "looked" good standing next to foreign leaders so he wouldn't embarass all the folks back home if and when he becomes President. This is goalpost all black candidates for President have to reach. White candidates don't have to do that. Just look at GW Bush and Sarah Palin, they can live their entire lives in the US, be dumb as rocks and they're ready to lead on Day One. But Barack Obama has to jump through hoops on one leg while reciting the Constitution backwards in pidgin English while staring into flashing strobe lights.
3.) The most important thing any campaign must do is build a ground organization to get out the vote. You do this by spending money to open campaign offices everywhere you intend to compete. You hire staffers, buy materials to support volunteers and get people mobilized to vote on election day.
While television ads are flashy, they do not pick up the phone and remind people to go vote. While tv ads give you temporary talking points, what you must do is score "walking points" and means voters and you get voters with a ground game and that is where a smart campaign puts its money.
September 9, 2008 10:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
I actually applauded the post by NC Steve. As I remember all the hand wringing in the primaries, and how in the end the campaign had some very interesting thing that made me say, "oh I get it now. Lots of people were saying how it would fail and he would not get the nomination. He stuck to his game plan and now he's is the nominee. Obama said he "intends to win this election." I believe him and trust he and his team are doing the big picture thing.
I can hear it now. Late at night on Nov. 4, McCain comes before the crowd and says the following: "I just called Senator Obama to congratulate him..."
September 9, 2008 10:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you, Jade and The ...NC Steve. Hope you are right.
September 9, 2008 10:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama's ground game in the primary was based on black churches. His confidence in his ground game was based on the belief that the evangelicals, who vastly outnumber the black church-goers Obama depends on, would stay home. As you say, not putting Clinton on the ticket, rationalized among other things by claiming he couldn't govern if Bill Clinton was around, opened the door for Palin who energized the very evangelicals Obama was counting on staying home. That threatens check in one and checkmate in two. We really are close to losing this one. However, you must not say that in the echo chamber. They will call you a concern troll. :)
September 9, 2008 10:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama's ground game in the primary was based on black churches
Really?
BTW, the fundies are definitely showing up now. Hell ... they showed up for Huck during the primaries - even if they had to hijack the church bus.
September 9, 2008 10:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama's ground game in the primary was based on black churches
Really?
BTW, the fundies are definitely showing up now. Hell ... they showed up for Huck during the primaries - even if they had to hijack the church bus.
September 9, 2008 10:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's good to hear your perspective. I disagree though with every point you've made.
I'm sure he had very very good reasons for not putting Hillary on the ticket. Personally, I think Biden is the superior choice and you might want to give him a little more of a chance to demonstrate that.
I think the grand tour, as you refer to it, was essential to show his cred on the world stage. He can't be afraid to do things just because of what Republicans will say about it. It's about time we had a democrat like this.
Ground game is so much more important for a candidate that is not as well known. In places like PA, NC and IN, he was down by 20 points in the primary before he spent time in those states. Afterward, he closed the gap by 20.
I think the Republicans desperation has many a little unnecessarily rattled. McCain campaign advisors dwell at the bottom of the barrel and they're not as in touch with Americans as they think.
The lower they go, the more desperate they get.
It's characteristic of anyone who has held on to power and fears becoming part of the past.
September 9, 2008 10:37 PM | Reply | Permalink