Momentum. The guy has been on a roll since the keynote speech at the 2004 DNC.

The question is: At what point do you stop chalking it up to luck and start chalking it up to skill?

Just got back from DE visiting with family. My brother the right leaning conservative independent supports Obama. Why? - because the way he managed his campaign. His feeling is anyone that runs a campaign the way Obama does is more than capable of running the country. Maybe the breaks came to Obama but he had the skill to take advantage of them and work them to his advantage.

It's definitely political skill. But it's more.
It's fate. He is fated to be President. These things don't
happen often, but when they do, there is something
more than just skill at play, and the mess that McCain
finds himself in now with Palin's daughter's unwed pregnancy
is another indication that there is something more than "skill" of the Obama campaign at play.
I'm not one to believe in Divine Intervention. BUT, if I did,
I'd say Obama has it in spades.

I just choose to say he is Fated to be the First Black President.

Just to put to bed she didn't look pregnant rumor. Finally found a pick from her period of her most recent pregnancy with her looking very bulgey.

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3049/2814199887_67e84850f4_b.jpg

That thought had been nagging me for a while as well. It's not just the timing of the 2004 keynote or the Hilary campaign blunder or the weak Republican field. I am not sure there was ANY year when Obama's presidency would have worked. Bush lowest approval rating ever, Iraq, Economy in the crapper, Gustav timing.

To be fair the man has a strategy and has stuck to it, but random events definitely have helped his candidacy.

"Barack Obama has again and again benefited from the randomness of events and the fortuitous misfortunes of others"

So, nothing to do with Obama, everything to do with the randomness of events and the fortuitous misfortunes of others.

Thanks for clarification.

Regardless of what they tell you in school, a huge amount of life is luck of opportunity and then seizing it and taking advantage of it.

Not a single person has ever attained the POTUS by planning alone:

JFK lucks into the television age and imagery beginning to trump policy.

Johnson lucks into the presidency through historical events -- and this despite all his planning.

Nixon lucks into the 1968 Democratic Convention, George Wallace, and a divided Dem party.

Ford lucks into the presidency through an accident based on Spiro Agnew's resignation.

Carter lucks into an evangelic and "cannot tell a lie" mood in the country.

Reagan lucks into a hostage crisis for an incumbent -- and a disastrous rescue attempt blamed on Carter.

GHWB lucks into a weak Dem slate, Willie Horon, and Dukakis looking goofy in a tank.

Clinton lucks into Perot's hatred of the Bushes, spending $60M of his own money to deny GHWB another term (and it works!)

GWB lucks into Nader, broken balloting, and a sympathetic Supreme Court... not to mention an incompetent campaign of Gore.

Yes, Obama will be lucky to get president -- just as everyone else before him way.

God I hate this stupid comment engine.

Regarding the triple post - It is not my fault.
This is getting old. Very old. McCain old.

I'm not religious, but the bible didn't get to be the book it is just because of the religion inside - it just covers almost every situation. The only other literature to do that is Shakespeare.

Ok, digression aside: The lord helps those who help themselves.

Or -You make your own luck. I agree what you're saying - but I think the key is that he was quick to take advantage of any advantage. He's very good at recognizing those, too.

All these things speak volumes to me about the kind of president he'll be. The guy thinks quickly but doesn't make snap, impulse judgments.

The dam was going to break sooner or later, and yes, Obama has been blessed. The GOP was going to fracture. A state GOP organization was going to go into a tailspin and leave an important election open. One or more bright new stars would emerge for the Democrats. The economy was going to turn bad. The Bush-Cheney snake oil was going to lose its appeal. The successor candidate was going to be firing blanks and charging uphill.

In hindsight, this was a cascade failure in the making. All it took was someone in the right place at the right time. If there is a "hand of God" here, and I'd like to think there is, it's in Obama's convention speech, otherwise this election was greased for Hillary, which just might not have been such a bad thing either, but it's nice to throw two old guards overboard at once.

To the topic starter,
Don't start gushing just yet. If Obama was fated or damn lucky, he'd be 20 points yet. At the moment, they're dead even, which means a mccain win, since those damn racists have learned to lie to pollsters.
they all say they're on the fence, when they're gonna vote repub all the way.
It's a movement, you'll see. It's an underground thing. It's a game: who can fool those Yankee pollsters best?

My sister and I were talking about this the other day. It does seem like events are coming together at just the right time to open the doors to an Obama presidency. I like to think that Senator Obama took advantage of the opportunities presented to him, and combined with his own rhetorical and managerial skills, he is where he is.

I have often thought Obama was one of the luckiest SOB's ever born.
But, it is about opportunity=luck +preparation

The stars have aligned for him in this way. It's been this way from the beginning. Even his losses turn out to be lucky. What if he had won that Congressional Seat in 2000. I don't think he would have been Senator in 2004. So, even the losses turned out good for him.

the only true Republicans that I know up close and personal are my best friend's family. They are Latino/Arab immigrants (from Colombia via Syria)she's the lone Democrat. Talking to them was fascinating.

Her father was like, after Obama's speech - it will be good to have an Orator in the White House. He adores Michelle and believes that Obama is smarter than people ever give him credit for because he married Michelle. He thinks Michelle rocks. He is, despite his political leanings, a man who raised 4 indepedent, successful daughters, and he realizes a good woman when he sees one.

His wife is voting for Obama because she feels McCain is an idiot who insulted women with Palin.

My friend has 3 sisters - two have left careers to be stay-at-home mothers - they loathe Palin. They think she's a bad mother and unqualified. It was so interesting to hear them tick off a list of qualified GOP women.

Her oldest brother said Palin was a dealbreaker for him. He brought up McCain's age, cancers, and that she wasn't qualified. He thought America could deal with 4 years of Obama, who he thought was impressive. He couldn't believe Obama took the Clintons out, and thus, earned his respect.

It was a fascinating talk.

No doubt there's a touch of Fate in Obama's success so far, but if all the people I've met had not spent so many sleepless days and nights, had not called so many millions of voters, had not knocked on millions of doors, had not raised millions of dollars, his luck would have been worthless. Too often I've seen the lucky lean back and rely on their good fortune - and lose all they were given. The secret to Obama's success is simple: treat all people with respect, demand the best from yourself and hope everyone else rises to meet your standards, and always run like you're 20 pts behind. Every time I feel burned out and want to lay it all down, I see him working at a speed and with a precision I can only hope to emulate, and get back on to work some more. Only 9 weeks to go - have you done all you can to make it come true on Nov. 4th?

We are living in a historic moment, but history often plays out in disappointment.
Witness the past eight years, if you doubt.
Still, there is a destiny that shapes our lives. All that is required of us is the imagination to understand our roles, and fully embrace them.
People say it of Obama, and don't say it about McCain: "I thought, 'This guy could be president.' "
I've seen that quote in one form or another from multiple people in his distant past.
Hillary tried to make an issue of an Obama kindergarten or grade-school composition titled "I want to grow up to be president," implying a lifelong ambitious streak, and people laughed at her.
I didn't; it implied precisely that.
It's clear Obama has long held a vision of himself, and is working to make it a reality.
In others as well, such a mindset can inform soaring rhetoric: MLK's "I have a dream," JFK's prescient "We are all mortal." That oratorical ability is more than a learned skill.
Such people tune in to, and draw power from from, the futures they are actively working to create. They know, as Shakespeare did, that they are actors. And they see their lives as works of art.
Personally, I always want to see these dramas played out to the end. It's such a waste to deny such players their hour upon the stage.
So it's not just the well-being of America and the world that's at stake this election; there's also the sheer esthetic pleasure of seeing Barack Obama fulfill his destiny.
(Note to puzzled reader: This comment distills the wisdom imparted by a full 750 mL bottle of Chardonnay. I'd hesitate to actually post it, but I'm curious to see if it makes any sense at all tomorrow morning. Carry on.)

Interesting post.

Recently I have been thinking about Senator Obama's apparent serendipity, particularly with regard to the 2004 Senate race.

Could any lawyers in the crowd please educate me - it was my understanding that it is very unusual to release custody records when both parties express a wish to keep them sealed. Yet Robert Schnider did so anyway, effectively destroying Jack Ryan's candidacy (good riddance).

At the time, Ryan was favored to win the election, and this issue directly opened the door for Senator Obama. I have read accounts from people claiming to know Judge Schnider, who maintain that he was only executing the law as he saw fit, and specifically had no interest whatsoever in the outcome of an Illinois senate race.

I do know that Schnider is a Democract, and so I can't help but wonder - just how unusual was his decision, if at all?

Thanks.

With all the phlilosophy flying around, VCubed nailed it.

Hard work & cautious optimism from now until November 4.

With all the philosophy flying around, VCubed nailed it.

Hard work & cautious optimism from now until November 4.