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OH Poll (SurveyUSA): McCain ahead, but interesting internals
Take a look at these data:
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=43154ee9-1bca-4042-84df-131e90cc13ad
Look in particular at the "Change Your Mind" columns. Although McCain is up 49-45 in the overall poll (fairly small sample size of 692 LVs), Obama's up 49-48 among those voters who say they're certain about their choice. Among those who say they might change their minds, McCain wins 55-31. With 18% of LV respondents in this category, we can imagine an 10% (.55*.18=.099) swing in Obama's favor through a resurgent campaign and a full-bore ground game.
Of course, we could also imagine a 5-6% swing in McCain's favor, but right now I prefer to think about ways we can win.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=43154ee9-1bca-4042-84df-131e90cc13ad
Look in particular at the "Change Your Mind" columns. Although McCain is up 49-45 in the overall poll (fairly small sample size of 692 LVs), Obama's up 49-48 among those voters who say they're certain about their choice. Among those who say they might change their minds, McCain wins 55-31. With 18% of LV respondents in this category, we can imagine an 10% (.55*.18=.099) swing in Obama's favor through a resurgent campaign and a full-bore ground game.
Of course, we could also imagine a 5-6% swing in McCain's favor, but right now I prefer to think about ways we can win.
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I would have to think many states are still up for grabs. Ohio included. Chuck Todd made an interesting statement this a.m., saying that McCain would have a hard time winning any state where he doesn't currently hold a lead. This was in reference to the tie in MN.
September 15, 2008 4:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
If OH is any guide, it seems that despite recent Republican gains the polls and despite the media's claims that Obama has not been able to "close the deal," it's McCain who is currently banking on uncertain voters. Obama's supporters are much less movable.
September 15, 2008 6:05 PM | Reply | Permalink