« It really seems to speak for itself | Nathan Donarum's Blog | McCain Officially Wins Democratic Nomination »

Patience and Steel


These days are dark and depressing. We're surrounded by polls that work against us, an Intrade prediction that for the first time shows Obama in a deficit to McCain, and non-stop sleaze from McCain/Palin that in some ways brings Republican sleaze to new heights. Things are just plain depressing. But I have to say, even in the darkest of times, of places, of moments... There is always a ray of light, and of hope. Here's a ray of light for all of you who, like me, obsess way too much over the negative, and don't focus nearly enough on the positive.

A reader wrote in to Andrew Sullivan with the following:

Like many Obama supporters, I’ve been in a poll-induced funk recently. So I went to the Obama HQ in downtown Orlando looking for a t-shirt, a bumper sticker, something, anything, to make myself not feel so damn worried.  Here’s what I found:    

1. A brisk campaign operation staffed mostly by 25-35 year olds, all at computers, all analyzing data on GOTV operations.

2. After speaking with my precinct captain who was present, she told me that since August 1, the downtown HQ has registered 80,000 new voters.  Let that number sink in.  In the last 40 days or so, they’ve registered an average of 2,000 voters per day.

I know they probably won’t keep up that pace, but even half that is good.

3. Consider that Florida was won by Bush in 2004 by 380,000 votes. Nader got 33,000 votes. I don’t even think he’s on the ballot in Florida this year. Assume that most of those go to Obama. The margin, to beat the Bush turnout in 2004, is 350,000 (give or take 50,000 votes.)

4. To win Florida, Obama needs everything Kerry got plus 400,000 votes.

5. Of those 80,000 newly registered voters (whose info won’t be available for pollsters for weeks, if not ever, before the election), the campaign has identified over 80% as Obama supporters. That’s 64,000 new Obama votes since Aug 1.

6. Assume they decrease their registration by 50% in September, and 50% in October. After all, there are only so many people not registered to vote. That would be another 60,000 voters, with approximately 48,000 new Obama votes, who can’t be polled. All together, that’s 112,000 new Obama votes. In Central Florida alone. Since Aug 1. 25% of the 400k to get Florida’s 27 electoral votes. Since Aug 1.

7. Of course, you have to get people to the polls. However, the precinct captain said that the 80% support of the newly registered voters has a built-in no-show formula.

8. I mentioned my worry over the polls. Without condescension, without a dirty look, or a snide quip, she said, calmly as possible, “we aren’t running the Florida campaign based on polls, we’re running it based on votes. There are so many people who have signed up to vote that pollsters can’t even reach, that the only thing the campaign is looking at right now is the GOTV operation and their own internal polls which are run much more specifically than, for instance, the state Mason-Dixon polls commissioned by the Florida newspapers.”


A couple days ago, Al Giordano gave a very cogent analysis of why the ground game is the winner here. He quoted Bob Beckel as saying:
...if primaries are indicators of fall turnout (historically they are) the youth vote will increase substantially over 2004. Millions of new voters have reached 18 since 2004. Some examples according to the US Census Bureau:

        * In Ohio (which John Kerry lost by only 120,000 votes in 2004), 750,000 eligible voters between 18 and 22 who could not vote in 2004 can vote in 2008.
        * In Colorado (Kerry lost by 99,000) 293,000 between 18 and 22 have become eligible to vote in 2008.
        * In New Mexico (Kerry lost by 6000 votes) 145,000 kids have reached voting age.
        * In Michigan 690,000 have become eligible.
        * In Virginia 465,000 (Kerry lost by 260,000).
        * In Florida alone over 1 million young people have reached voting age since 2004.

    Then there are black voters. According to the Census Bureau there are 24 million eligible black voters in America of which 16 million (64%) are registered. In 2004 blacks cast 14 million votes or only 56% of the eligible black population. Blacks are registering to vote at historic rates in 2008 and turnout will soar above 2004 levels. Some examples:

        * In Colorado there are 110000 eligible black voters. Only 50,000 voted in 2004.
        * In Ohio there are 860,000 eligible black voters. Only 380,000 voted in 2004. (Remember Kerry lost by only 120,000 votes).
        * In Virginia, 945,000 eligible black voters, 465,000 voted in 2004.
        * Florida; 1,750,000 eligible blacks, 770,000 voted in 2004.

    Not to get morbid but there is another statistic that is working against the Republicans. The Center for Disease Control estimates there have been, on average, 2.5 million deaths in America each year since 2005, the overwhelming number of whom were 65 years and older. Since it is generally conceded that John McCain will win the over 65 vote the actuarial tables present a problem. But you say millions have turned 65 since 2004. Correct, but among the people who were 61-64 in 2004 the vote split evenly between Kerry and Bush.
You can all take what you want from this. I know what I'm taking from it. Chin up. It's not over yet.

42 Comments

| Leave a comment

Thanks for posting this. I, too, saw the letter on Sullivan's website and it cheered me up after a long, dreary week of lies, bad polls, and slimeball commercials.

Here's to a better week next week!!!!!

This is also cross-posted from Sullivan. He's doing a pretty good job as morale officer.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W3ijYVyhnn0

I haven't even seen Les Mis, but I did like this version of it.

I saw that. It was absolutely awesome.

user-pic

I just watched it again. I'm finally feeling the "yes" in "yes we can" resurging.

user-pic

I love it every time!


O's the General,we're the infantry. Fight now or lose your right to bitch and whine when McHockeymom stars WW3. If we ALL get involved, this thing is ours,if we Chicken Little out, we lose. Donate! Phone bank! Register Voters! What you're feeling is not defeat , it is THE FIERCE URGENCY OF NOW!

Again, Andrew Sullivan gets it, posting a letter from one of his readers (http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/09/are-the-netroot.html):

I just wanted to say thank you so much for being the only blogger (aside from Al Giordano) who gets it. While the rest of the blogosphere (especially the liberal bloggers) lose their heads you are an island of common sense. Patience and Steel. Yes, yes. yes.

It also occurs to me that in a way McCain and Rove have actually simply taken over the liberal blogosphere in some way. They are being played.

Just a few examples---yesterday Obama gave a fantastic interview at the Service Forum. Did the liberal blogs even cover this? No.

He gave a great speech on the trail. Are his town halls even posted or excerpted? No.

Oh it's FAR from over, this week has been one of the worst for us Dems (barring the FANTASTIC day today has been) but I believe truly that the O camp is performing at top level and are doing a fantastic job, knowing EXACTLY what they need to do to win.

user-pic

We wouldn't be having this conversation had he picked Hillary.

Lets face it, sexism is pretty much dead.

Racism is alive and well.

If he had picked Hillary, we wouldn't be explaining away a huge swing in the polls with fairy tales of GOTV. Jeezus, the dems crow about gotv every four years, and every four years they lose.

Biden has all the impact of a benign tumor - Hillary would've been a dynamic and fantastic campaigner and a 'gloves off' attack dog.

We didn't lose.

Obama did when he snubbed 18 million people who voted Hillary in the primary.

Polls? Polls are the basis for this rant? You think Obama is "falling" in the polls because he didn't pick Hillary? Where did you learn about politics? From the back of a box of Cheerios?

user-pic

We wouldn't be having this conversation had he picked Hillary.

Lets face it, sexism is pretty much dead.

Racism is alive and well.

If he had picked Hillary, we wouldn't be explaining away a huge swing in the polls with fairy tales of GOTV. Jeezus, the dems crow about gotv every four years, and every four years they lose.

Biden has all the impact of a benign tumor - Hillary would've been a dynamic and fantastic campaigner and a 'gloves off' attack dog.

We didn't lose.

Obama did when he snubbed 18 million people who voted Hillary in the primary.

Get over it. Stop living in the past, and instead of being a "Hillary should have won" troll, why don't you fight to see that the things Hillary believes in stay alive by electing Barack Obama? The same argument could practically be made for any of the other candidates. "If Kucinich was chosen, we wouldn't be freaking out right now" -- sure, prove it. We have Obama, and he's doing a brilliant job, whether you want to admit it or not.

You're doing nothing here but being regressive, and completely unhelpful. Start being proactive. If you're such a Hillary die-hard, you'll put her loss behind you like she did and work to get Obama elected. Period.

Co-sign. C'mon E, what do you think the REAL Elvis would say? "TCB, baby, TCB".

Peace out!

Triple co-sign. There are many reasons why Obama didn't pick Hillary as his VP. And, frankly, I am tiring from the blackmail, tantrum throwing, "we told you so" response from some of her supporters. This is not about her, it's about the future of the country. If you cling to the "this wouldn't be happening if he picked Hillary" deception, then you are PLAYING RIGHT INTO McCAIN'S hands. That's exactly what Rove banked on.

user-pic

Hillary who? Hillary is not running for president--Barack Obama is. And Joe Biden is his pick for vice president. Got it?

More on this theme:

"Plouffe laid out the theory: the Obama camp isn't that panicked about news cycles, we're looking longer term, he said. Team Obama has sunk massive amounts of money into a huge number of field offices in competitive states (some conservative states aren't worth fighting in and liberal states are in the bag already). At the last comprehensive count, the Obama campaign had 336 field offices around the country, and McCain 101. McCain has probably opened more recently, but the disparity is still striking.

Some state-by-state comparisons are useful. In Ohio, Obama has 33 offices, and McCain nine. In Michigan, it's 22-11. Virginia, 28-6; Iowa, 23-6; New Mexico, 18-1; Missouri, 27-7. You get the picture. Florida is the only competitive state where McCain has more offices, 35-25. That 35 is deeply uncharacteristic for McCain, probably explained by the fact that much of the McCain vote in Florida will be elderly and will need to be driven to the polls on election day.

In addition, the Obama campaign is counting on a large voter-registration effort that's been ongoing in key states since 2006. Twenty-eight of the 50 states enroll voters according to party affiliation, and in those states, Democrats have gained 2 million voters in the last two years, while the Republicans have lost 334,000. Numbers for 2008 alone look like this in some important states: Colorado, 66,516 Democrats to 13,352 Republicans; Florida, 209,422 Democrats to 77,196 Republicans; Iowa, 69,301 Democrats to 7,515 Republicans; Pennsylvania, 98,137 Democrats to just 289 Republicans.

It takes a lot of time and money to register all those people and set up all those offices. The Obama people are betting that the investment will pay off. It is their belief, Plouffe said in Denver, that most people pay more attention to their co-workers and neighbours than they do to television talking heads. And with all those neighbours and co-workers spreading the word on election day, they say they feel good about the situation they've created. Field, they say, will trump news cycle.

So there you have it. Are the Obama people right? The problems with their theory are that all this field-tilling is invisible to pundits, and that there's no way to measure its success until the votes start coming in. In the meantime, McCain is very much winning the visible war, which can be measured day-to-day. And, since he named Palin, enthusiasm on the right is sky high, so he'll have his army of volunteers now, too.

One doesn't doubt that the Obama turnout will be impressive. But there are 51 daily news cycles between now and November 4. Obama certainly needs to win a few of them. So let's sort all that out first. Then we'll talk about the big picture."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/sep/13/uselections2008.usa

Thanks so much for this! It definitely sheds more light on the local efforts by the Obama camp.

So there you have it. Are the Obama people right? The problems with their theory are that all this field-tilling is invisible to pundits, and that there's no way to measure its success until the votes start coming in.

This is what has so many Democrats freaking out. You know how many times I've been told things like, "So we're banking on an invisible GOTV effort?! That doesn't work!" ...Yes, we are indeed, but yes, it does work. One of the problems, I think, is that some Democrats just need to have more faith. Empiricism is powerful. When you can quantify how well a candidate is doing based on numbers, like polls and surveys, it's easier to grasp what the playing field looks like. But empiricism only goes so far. It's interesting, but much of Einstein's work and theories were based off of blank hypothesis, not empirical evidence. Let's just have a little more faith that Obama knows what he's doing.

One doesn't doubt that the Obama turnout will be impressive. But there are 51 daily news cycles between now and November 4. Obama certainly needs to win a few of them.

Politico for today: Obama wins the day (http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0908/13181.html).

...at this point you have to start wondering: when is McCain-Palin going to unveil its second act? While Palin-driven rallies coupled with negative advertising worked for this week, it won’t carry the campaign through November.

Nathan: I think the anxiety stems from uncertainty about the new dynamics. Nodice reminds us of how the game has changed. We need to register ever more voters and get these new voters to the polls.

Yes we can!

With change comes risks. It's that simple. The problem comes when too many people are afraid to take a risk for the betterment of society, and of themselves.

Thank you for the post, you did with words what Les Miserable video did in song. It was much needed and appreciated. Brought that sunshine back.

Wouldn't we be well served right now by releasing our 527's to do some heavy lifting -We need to have Move.On call out Saracuda on all her lying .
We need to have Rand Beers call out McCain on his support of premptive . elective wars - ie Iran &the Bush Doctrine ..
We need all of our allied 527's unleashed and lets get our share of these next waning news cycles . Its time also to employ all the lessons learned from the Begala/Carville/ Emmanuel 1992 playbook - do not respond to your opponents attacks- make your opponent respond to your attacks - McCain tries to smear us with lipstick on a pig - we hit him back hard on all of these foreclosures that Team Bush, McCain & Phil Gramm has brought us..
Its time to have a protracted rumble in the MSM , to protect our gains on the ground.,..

Wouldn't we be well served right now by releasing our 527's to do some heavy lifting -We need to have Move.On call out Saracuda on all her lying .
We need to have Rand Beers call out McCain on his support of premptive . elective wars - ie Iran &the Bush Doctrine ..
We need all of our allied 527's unleashed and lets get our share of these next waning news cycles . Its time also to employ all the lessons learned from the Begala/Carville/ Emmanuel 1992 playbook - do not respond to your opponents attacks- make your opponent respond to your attacks - McCain tries to smear us with lipstick on a pig - we hit him back hard on all of these foreclosures that Team Bush, McCain & Phil Gramm has brought us..
Its time to have a protracted rumble in the MSM , to protect our gains on the ground.,..

And note, the pool of *unregistered* voters increases daily - many hundreds, if not thousands, become citizens of this country every day.

I'm scheduled to become a citizen, along with many others, on the 17th of September. I can't WAIT to register....

That's really awesome! Good for you! And congratulations. Glad you're here working with us. It means a lot. =)

I encourage anyone who is feeling "poll anxiety" to make a stop at any one of the Obama campaign offices... as has been posted in numerous places the GOTV campaign is the most impressive of any campaign in history.

Here in South Florida I personally stop by if not daily, every other day to drop off donuts, bags of candy (to keep everyone's energy level peaked) in addition to hosting my own GOTV voter registration drive next week.

I can tell you my efforts are not showing up on any polls and I know the same efforts are taking place all over the country. I can tell you I have never been this involved in a political campaign and it's how we were successful in the Primaries... (you notice I said "we").

The press today was amazing with just about every MSM outlet calling McCain out on the lies, lies and distortions... I can tell you this time truly feels different. We have the support to overcome the negativity and built in obstacles (and you know what I mean) before us.

"Work like we're 20 pts down"

Hey,

The Avatars are back !

Isn't it amazing?! They came back earlier today. Made me so happy.

Dude,

You have two posts on the rec'd list...

Your on fire today.

Lol! I know. It's cool! One time I had two posts on the rec'd list that were the #1 and #2 most recommended posts for the day. But that hasn't happened since...

user-pic

Thanks, I was going to post that but lost my login. It didn't come back until I enabled scripts from amazonaws.com. I had assumed those were just popups.

Nathan, I don't mean to get sentimental, but I want you to know that your posts are ones I regularly read because of your sanity and intelligence. Please keep up the good work.

Thank you. It's comments like yours that keep me doing what I do.

Chronathan, great post, thanks so much for the excellent grist. Your other, on the McCain inexperienced governor quote, is likewise priceless. I think we are going to get this done.

Everyone needs to give either time or money or both!

What Orlando said the other day:

Do Something. Bitch Later. (The other words melt away, but that's all we need to know or do.)

Thanks.

It's true. This is the final stretch. It's do or die, and I'm not taking the latter. I refuse this time, I absolutely refuse.

By the way, I wasn't able to listen to you on the radio, but I wanted to. Do you have a link where I can listen? ...It was kind of pathetic how many posts were devoted to mocking you about that. Eh. I would've done the same if I was on the radio or got published in a newspaper or something. =)

This is great, I volunteer out of one of the Missouri St Louis headquarters and I'll tell you, its a constant hive of activity out there. One of our bigger problems is people show up and we don't have enough phones for people to phone bank. This morning I sent three people off to canvas the neighborhoods, identifying McCain, Obama and Undecided voters. We are working hard here and yea, Rasmus say's were 5 points down. Who cares. We are going to get every single Obama supporter registered and out voting.

I am a polling wonk, my homepage is fivethirtyeight.com, but I know that our efforts are flying under the radar. That is fine with me, lets shock the world November 4th. Chrono, great post as always.

This is just totally unfair, I'm really sorry but I waited, refreshed, and this was after getting some wild 500 error. It didn't appear to ever come! Again I'm sorry to spam a great post. From now on im hitting post and if it comes it comes, I'm not trying again!

This is great, I volunteer out of one of the Missouri St Louis headquarters and I'll tell you, its a constant hive of activity out there. One of our bigger problems is people show up and we don't have enough phones for people to phone bank. This morning I sent three people off to canvas the neighborhoods, identifying McCain, Obama and Undecided voters. We are working hard here and yea, Rasmus say's were 5 points down. Who cares. We are going to get every single Obama supporter registered and out voting.

I am a polling wonk, my homepage is fivethirtyeight.com, but I know that our efforts are flying under the radar. That is fine with me, lets shock the world November 4th. Chrono, great post as always.

This is great, I volunteer out of one of the Missouri St Louis headquarters and I'll tell you, its a constant hive of activity out there. One of our bigger problems is people show up and we don't have enough phones for people to phone bank. This morning I sent three people off to canvas the neighborhoods, identifying McCain, Obama and Undecided voters. We are working hard here and yea, Rasmus say's were 5 points down. Who cares. We are going to get every single Obama supporter registered and out voting.

I am a polling wonk, my homepage is fivethirtyeight.com, but I know that our efforts are flying under the radar. That is fine with me, lets shock the world November 4th. Chrono, great post as always.

This is great, I volunteer out of one of the Missouri St Louis headquarters and I'll tell you, its a constant hive of activity out there. One of our bigger problems is people show up and we don't have enough phones for people to phone bank. This morning I sent three people off to canvas the neighborhoods, identifying McCain, Obama and Undecided voters. We are working hard here and yea, Rasmus say's were 5 points down. Who cares. We are going to get every single Obama supporter registered and out voting.

I am a polling wonk, my homepage is fivethirtyeight.com, but I know that our efforts are flying under the radar. That is fine with me, lets shock the world November 4th. Chrono, great post as always.

Yes, had he picked Hillary, we'd be busy fighting off the HUGE negative campaign the Repugs would be waging based on her baggage...now that would be fun! They were practically salivating at the opportunity to use her and Bill as the focus of their campaign. Isn't it too bad they didn't get the opportunity. Obama is smarter than that.

Enough with the Hillary crapola. She lost. She lost because of a very poorly managed campaign. Plus, she may not have wanted to be VP as she would have had to put Bill through the vetting process and well, who knows what that might have revealed. Maybe not anything really bad, but it certainly would have given McCain some new ammunition to add to the rest of the Clinton history.

The more you repeat this, the more it adds negativity to the campaign. Hillary is of better use to us in the Senate under an Obama administration - who better to help push through health care changes than HRC in the Senate, especially since Teddy might not be able to provide his usual leadership due to his health? Or has a cabinet member - Health & Human Services?

Let's drop this bs once and for all. It plays into the Repugs hands and continues to divide us.

Huh... it says in the "Your Blog" page that there's 40 comments and 43 recommends for this post. But when I go to it, there's only 38 comments and 39 recommends. Bizarre.

Nevermind, all is fine now.

Leave a comment

Nathan Donarum

user-pic

Following: 14
Followers: 24

Posts
Comments & Recommends


  • Location Joplin, Missouri
  • Party Principles over Party... But usually Democratic
  • Politics Rational Progressivism

Favorites

  • Favorite Blogs http://talkingpointsmemo.com www.fivethirtyeight.com http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com www.dagblog.com

Bio

In the interest of those who have a desire to contact me outside of TPM... If you need to contact me, for whatever reason, my email is nathandonarum (at) gmail (dot) com Questions, comments... Whatever it may be, feel free!

All Reader Posts
How to use myTPM

Advertise Liberally
Share
Close Social Web Email

"To" Email Address

Your Name

Your Email Address